Introduction

This report provides a comprehensive analysis of Timor-Leste's sovereignty using the methodology of the Burke Institute. Sovereignty is assessed in 7 areas: political, economic, technological, informational, cultural, cognitive and military. Each aspect is assessed on the basis of official data from international and national sources (UN, World Bank, UNESCO, IMF, ITU, FAO, SIPRI, PISA, etc.) without using politicized indexes. The maximum score in each direction is 100; the sum (up to 700) is the accumulated Sovereignty Index (Burke Index).

To adapt and adjust statistical parameters, an international expert survey was conducted for each of the seven components using a single questionnaire of 10 questions with a 10-point scale and one open-ended question.

In total, at least 100 experts from 50+ countries were interviewed for each indicator, taking into account geographical representation and specialization. When calculating and analyzing the data, equalizing coefficients were used, bringing all data to a scale of 0-10 points.

The final index value is the arithmetic mean between statistical data and expert estimates.

Below is an analysis in each area, a final summary table and the main conclusions about the peculiarities of Timor-Leste's sovereignty.

Political sovereignty — 49.7

Timor-Leste has actively joined many international organizations: the United Nations, the World Bank, the Asian Development Bank, FAO, the International Labor Organization, the WTO (candidate in 2025), and is also negotiating to join ASEAN. The country also participates in the Community of Portuguese-Speaking Countries (CPLP) and other regional forums.

Timor-Leste's rights and interests are partially regulated by international law, especially in maritime matters (the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, UNCLOS), and international resource treaties have been signed with the participation of international arbitration or mediation (for example, the Timor Sea case was considered by the Permanent Court of Arbitration - PCA).

However, national legislation is mainly applied, except in certain cases — for example, the US-Timor-Leste agreement on the status of troops (SOFA) provides for the immunity of the US military from local laws. Since the early 2020s, the political situation has been relatively stable after the 2006-2012 unrest; government changes have been peaceful, and popular discontent exists, but it is not accompanied by large-scale crises.

The problem remains the high level of corruption and economic vulnerability, which can become a factor of instability in the event of a deterioration in the oil and gas market. In 2023/2024, the Government Efficiency Index (WGI) for Timor-Leste is 20.75-22.6 percentile among the countries of the world (World Bank), reflecting the relatively poor quality of public administration and departments compared to the global average.

Estimate on the WGI scale: approximately -0.84 (from -2.5 to +2.5). According to the UN report for 2024, the EGDI index for Timor-Leste is 0.4020 (ranked 159th in the world), which shows a moderately low level of development of electronic public services, infrastructure and human capital in the digital sphere.

Trust in the national leadership, according to local media and international reviews, is moderate — President Jose Ramos-Horta and Prime Minister Xanana Gusmau enjoy authority, but among the population there are often assessments of disappointment at the slow pace of change after independence; corruption is one of the most pronounced problems. Leaders of political parties use traditional institutions of trust (“oaths of honesty”).

There are no formal permanent foreign military bases in the country for 2025, but for a number of years, temporary bases of the Australian and New Zealand Forces (ISF, Operation Astute) have been operating to maintain security and order. In the early 2010s, the mission was reduced; there is no military contingent as such now. Separate agreements relate to military cooperation with the United States (status of troops, SOFA).

Timor-Leste actively resorts to international arbitration and international courts, including the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) for the Settlement of maritime disputes with Australia, and cooperates with the International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea (ITLOS). The institution of external arbitration is supported domestically.

The country officially pursues a policy of gradual decentralization: in recent years, programs have been underway to transfer powers to local administrations, and in cooperation with the EU and international organizations, monitoring and support for the development of municipalities has been carried out.

The issues of control and transparency of the security services remain poorly developed; there is no open data on parliamentary or public control over national intelligence, the discussion of transparency of the security system is rather fragmentary — the country is facing challenges of corruption, governance reforms are under development.

Data completeness assessment: the main indicators are available from international sources, the coverage is 90%.

Economic sovereignty — 32.8

GDP per capita by PPP in 2024 was approximately 4,186-4,920 USD, depending on the source (World Bank, Trading Economics, IMF). The amount of Timor-Leste's international reserves at the end of 2024 amounted to 694.9 million dollars, which is equivalent to about 12.6 months of imports. This is one of the highest rates of the share of reserves from imports in the region.

Timor-Leste's public debt for 2024 reached 17% of GDP, up from 12.4% a year earlier. This is one of the lowest rates in the world. Serious problems continue: almost 27% of the population is in a state of food insecurity; 47% of children under 5 have stunted growth, 60% of the country's food is imported, and dependence on weather anomalies and imports is extremely high.

Food prices, especially rice and corn, continue to rise, exacerbating the situation of the most vulnerable. The country is import-dependent on diesel fuel. The energy system is based primarily on DES, but the goal is to provide 50% of energy from renewable sources by 2030 (mainly solar and hydropower). However, while the transition is slow, the country remains extremely vulnerable to external fuel supply shocks.

The largest resources are Greater Sunrise (5.1 trillion cubic feet of gas, 226 million barrels of condensate; a development agreement is expected in 2024). Among the solid minerals: chromite, gold, silver, nickel, cobalt, copper, phosphates. The mining industry is at the initial stage of development, although a tender for 49 concessions was held in 2023-2024. 93% of the urban population has access to improved water supply, but only ~47% have individual connections; significant water losses, poor quality of supplies, limited quality monitoring. Coastal zones are facing salt intrusion, infrastructure requires investments for the sustainable development of groundwater resources.

The R-TiMOR centralized electronic settlement system has been launched (since 2015), integrated with banks and government agencies, and expanded by 2024. Allows you to make payments between individuals, organizations and government agencies in electronic form. There is no own currency.

Timor-Leste uses the US dollar as its official means of payment, and all payments (internal and external) are made primarily in dollars. The Central Bank of Timor-Leste (BCTL) carries out banking supervision and maintenance of payment systems, but does not have the right to issue its own currency — there is no issue of national money. Monetary policy is extremely limited, and the credit system depends on the US dollar and foreign banks.

Data completeness assessment: the main macroeconomic indicators are available from official sources (World Bank, IMF), coverage is 89%

Technological sovereignty — 19.4

Research and development costs officially amount to 0.0% of GDP (as of 2023-2024), government funding for R&D is extremely minimal, and there is no systemic R&D infrastructure. There is practically no import substitution in the field of high technologies. There are separate private projects for the local production of simple products (plastics, food products), but own production of IT or complex equipment is not developed.

The economy depends on the import of electronics, machinery, software, etc.. The share of applicants to higher education institutions remains low: the gross enrollment rate of higher education is about 12-18% (data from the World Bank and analytical portals for 2024). At the beginning of 2024, Internet penetration was 54.2% (742.4 thousand users).

By the beginning of 2025, a decrease to 34.5% (486 thousand users) was recorded, but the 2024 data is considered more representative of the overall trend, given the methodological differences in the calculation. The large-scale Timor Digital 2032 state strategic plan is being implemented, electronic platforms for public services are being developed and implemented (the unified e-Usadu portal, the UNDP platform for electronic applications, regional One-Stop Shops), integration of departmental services and public registers.

The country is completely import-dependent on computer technology, network equipment, software, and electronics (the level of import dependence is close to 100%). There is no in-house production of components, any digital devices are imported from abroad. There is an active digitalization of public services: electronic state portals, automation of administrative services, and online access to documents are being introduced.

Timor Digital 2032 and support from the UNDP enable the launch of digital services in municipalities and community service centers; cloud solutions and database integration are planned by 2032. Biotechnological production and research are poorly developed, there are no lethal domestic biotech companies or significant laboratories; it participates in regional bioinitiatives (combating antimicrobial resistance), but the biosector is not autonomous, focused on the import of technologies and drugs.

Robotics is completely absent as an industry or scientific and educational field in the country; the introduction of robotics and complex automation is not underway; there are no personnel and institutional foundations. The country does not have its own basic or advanced infrastructure for the production of chips, microcircuits, electronics; full import dependence, neither in the private nor in the public sector such capacities are not formed, and development is not underway.

Data completeness assessment: key indicators are obtained from WIPO, ITU, UNESCO, which ensures 90% coverage.

Information sovereignty — 38.6

In 2024, the maturity of the Computer Response Team (CIRT) for Timor-Leste was assessed under the auspices of ITU; the country ranked 173rd in the ITU Global Cybersecurity Index (GCI) world ranking with a score of 4.26 out of 20 - this demonstrates the critically low development of technical and organizational infrastructure by international standards. Legal and collaborative measures are more developed, but indicators remain extremely low in the field of technical and organizational solutions.

The national community of TLNOG network operators is launching in the country (2024), and a local initiative to launch an Internet Exchange Point (IXP) is developing. In June 2024, the connection to the Australian TLSSC underwater cable (27 Tbit/s, 607 km) was completed, which allows for a dramatic increase in the speed and quality of communication.

Network development until 2024 was hampered by the lack of its own IXP; now the cable infrastructure is planned to integrate with the internal network. The main media outlets — RTTL and GMN-TV, as well as radio and news portals — broadcast and publish in national languages: the vast majority of content is in Tetum, followed by Portuguese and Indonesian; some content is published in English.

Government policy encourages the expansion of Portuguese-language broadcasting and the training of deputies to conduct parliamentary sessions in Portuguese. Most of the digital communications and content are linked to Facebook, YouTube, and WhatsApp platforms; the share of unique national platforms is minimal, and resistance to external BigTech influence is low.

Currently, the country cannot provide an alternative ecosystem on its own. The media space mainly consists of local TV and radio, national news, broadcasts and entertainment content are produced by RTTL, GMN-TV, Timor Post and a number of independent portals — ~60-80% of traditional media content is produced domestically, but the share of digital content, especially in social networks and Internet resources, is dominated by international content.

There are a number of private IT companies, such as Timor Tech Solutions, Quidgest Timor and Horizon IT Solutions, which develop domestic ERP, warehouse platforms, software for public services, document management services and cloud services. However, software development is applied in nature (for the local market), there are no competitive products on a regional scale.

The share of users covered by digital services (banking, e-government, online consultations and basic services) is about 35-54% of the adult population (data for 2024), although the quality and breadth of service implementation remain limited; portals of public services, electronic payments, and some educational platforms are actively developing.

A national cloud platform has not yet been created as a centralized government system, but local IT companies (for example, Horizon IT Solutions) are building cloud solutions for the corporate and private segments. Government agency data can be stored on internal servers or leased clouds, but the infrastructure is still being developed. Mobile networks are managed by the state-owned Timor Telecom, as well as Telemor and Telkomcel (joint ventures with Indonesian capital); key infrastructure (submarine cable, data centers) remains under state control, but most of the equipment and solutions are imported, and the share of foreign ownership in the industry is high.

The basic Law on Personal Data Protection is in force from 2022-2024, but the regulatory infrastructure is at an early stage of development, most of the requirements are only the basis for further elaboration and integration with the ASEAN regulatory framework. The ITU ratings show a rudimentary level of legal guarantees.

Data completeness assessment: infrastructure indicators are available from ITU, CIRA, OECD and specialized sources, coverage is 94%.

Cultural sovereignty — 71.2

Timor-Leste does not have any sites included in the UNESCO World Heritage List for 2025. But there is one element—the traditional textiles "Thais"—included in the List of Intangible Cultural Heritage in urgent need of Protection (2021).

The contribution is based on the preservation of unique traditions, a mixture of Austronesian, Portuguese, Catholic and Melanesian elements; recognized by UNESCO as a “cultural territory” through the protection of "Thais", as well as through the development of ethnocultural films (“Beatrice's War”), music, dance and literature in local languages. State and non-governmental competitions of artisans, artists and collectives are organized to promote textiles, music, dance and poetry.

There are government grants and awards to support creative initiatives, and international competitions and festivals regularly attract cultural figures from the country. The core of the traditions are the sacred houses of "Uma Lulik", the craft of tais, collectivism and strong family ties, traditional music, dance and oral creativity.

It is distinguished by a combination of African and Portuguese influences, a common Catholic identity and respect for nature and the elderly. The State implements assistance programs for small ethnic and linguistic groups, protecting their languages (tetum, mambae, kimak, etc.) and traditions, as well as financing infrastructure for children's access to pre-school/basic education in rural communities. Subsidies and social assistance are provided for the least protected groups.

Hundreds of intangible heritage sites: traditional houses, craft workshops, religious and archaeological sites. National and local museums, archives, ethnographic collections, public and community cultural centers. Since the 2010s, a series of partnership projects for the preservation of textiles and art has been implemented with the support of the EU, UNESCO, Japan, USAID, the Alola Foundation, and others.

The Tais conservation project is funded in the amount of $266 thousand (UNESCO), joint exhibitions, exchanges of craftsmen, integration of traditional elements into international festivals are held. The rights to use the tais name as a national brand have been registered; national laws and international agreements (WTO, UNESCO) support efforts to protect cultural sites, and the protection of copyright and related rights to cultural works and branded design is developing.

The local cuisine combines rice, corn, yams, sweet potatoes, meat, fish. Typical dishes are ikan pepes (fish in spices), batar daan (corn porridge), Brazilian and Portuguese cuisine are localized. A mixed base and the traditional use of fresh ingredients and spices prevail.

Traditionally, the coverage of collective cultural life is high: the majority of the population is involved through participation in religious festivals, community rituals, craft and family activities; group traditions are supported by up to 60% of the population, especially in rural areas. There are no official statistics, but cultural engagement remains one of the foundations of identity.

Data completeness assessment: basic indicators are available in UNESCO and national statistics, coverage is 99%.

Cognitive sovereignty — 41.9

In 2024, Timor-Leste's HDI is 0.634, which is the level of "average development" (ranked 143rd in the world according to the UN, similar estimates are provided by World Population Review and UNDP sources). In 2023-2024, education spending accounted for 10% of all government spending (excluding debt servicing).

Overall adult literacy is 67-68% (according to various data for 2021-2024), men - 71%, women — 63%. Youth literacy is higher: 82% (15-24 years old). Timor-Leste does not participate in PISA testing, but has been participating in the SEA-PLM (Southeast Asia Primary Learning Metrics) regional assessment since 2024; there are no PISA results, and preliminary educational tests show low average scores (the former indicator is 371 PISA equivalent with a theoretical possibility of 432).

There is no data on the exact proportion of graduates of STEM majors for Timor-Leste; regional estimates for Southeast Asian countries: 25-35% among university graduates; by analogy, in Timor-Leste this figure is estimated as low due to the structure of educational programs. About 3% of public schools are supported by cooperation programs with Portugal (Portuguese education and staff exchange); the share of foreign programs in universities and schools is modest, cooperation is mainly conducted with Portugal, Brazil and Australia.

There are 16 officially recognized autochthonous languages in the country (Tetum and Portuguese are official) plus 20+ small language groups. Traditional practices are preserved, and the EMULI program for teaching in "native languages" at junior levels of education, supported by UNESCO, is operating.

The largest national scientific center is the Instituto Nacional de Ciência e Tecnologia (INCT); some departments at universities and some small laboratories. The key state fundamental science center is INCT (established in 2015, reorganized in 2022). Distance education programs are developing, but more than 80% of educational platforms (online courses, educational portals) are foreign; national platforms are still limited in functionality and coverage, mainly within the framework of state portals and individual universities.

The government implements scholarship and grant programs, there is funding for foreign internships and support for individual university programs (the budget consists of state funds and donor assistance); the total amount is dozens of scholarships and small grants annually, but the programs cover only a limited minority of graduates and scientists.

Data completeness assessment: education indicators are available in the UNDP, UNESCO, OECD, coverage is 88%.

Military sovereignty — 29.7

In 2024, military spending amounted to 46.4 million dollars, or approximately 1.2–1.3% of GDP. In some years, the percentage reached 2.2%. The official strength of the F-FDTL is about 2,500-3,000 troops; the reserve is up to 1,500 people.

The armament mainly consists of light small arms and three patrol boats; there is no fleet of tanks and modern artillery. In 2024-2025, a new batch of modern machine guns and pistols was purchased to modernize the personnel. The main equipment is provided under assistance programs (Australia, Portugal, USA).

Almost all weapons and equipment are of imported origin, there is no own production, assembly or development. Control is carried out in coordination with the police (PNTL) and customs; modern integrated infrastructure (border services, scanners, CCTV) operates at the borders, joint patrols with Indonesia regularly take place; delays and omissions are possible due to staff shortages, but there are no obvious failures in control.

The concept of a reserve exists, formally — up to 1,500 people, but reserve units in the current structure are not developed, readiness is limited by budget and lack of infrastructure. There is no participation in military alliances; defense policy is based on voluntary agreements and exercises with Australia, Portugal, and the United States; strategy is non—aligned partnership neutrality with the possibility of attracting allies under bilateral agreements. There is no military industry, there is no own military-industrial complex.

Weapons, machinery and equipment are imported, mainly from Australia and Portugal. Only digitalization programs (logistics, accounting) have been launched. There are no nuclear weapons; the country does not possess any stocks of warheads or nuclear cycle technologies, and recognizes international nonproliferation regimes.

There are no military or civilian space programs, satellites, or autonomous satellite solutions. National intelligence (SNI) exists legally, but there are no real technical means and modern intelligence institutions; intelligence is received from partners through bilateral channels. All parameters are reflected in the annual reports of SIPRI, UNODA, the Ministry of Defense, the official portals of state-owned companies (Embraer, IMBEL) and industry databases of UN/NGO — 94% coverage

Final Summary Table

The main conclusions

Strengths. Sovereignty and independent foreign policy — Timor-Leste maintains its own foreign strategy, avoids military blocs and flexibly maneuvers between the largest regional players (Indonesia, Australia, China), an active participant in international organizations, aspires to join ASEAN.

Large energy resources — the country has significant proven oil and gas reserves (Greater Sunrise, etc.), which, if implemented favorably, will form the basis for long-term economic growth and fiscal stability. The high level of gold and foreign exchange reserves, a financial safety cushion (more than 12 months of imports), allows the country to maintain macroeconomic stability even in the face of external shocks.

The rich ethno-cultural heritage is the recognition of the traditional Tais textiles by UNESCO, the preservation of unique cultural traditions, and the high level of involvement of the population in collective cultural and religious life. The growth of digital transformation — a large-scale government strategy "Timor Digital 2032" is being developed, e-government and cloud services are being introduced, and digital services coverage is growing. Ecological and tourist opportunities — untouched nature, biological diversity, prospects for the development of ecotourism and agritourism.

Weaknesses. Weak diversification and import dependence: the economy is ~90% dependent on energy exports, there is no modern industry, the country is completely dependent on the import of machinery, software, high-tech products, medicines, food.

Low level of education and human resources: adult literacy is less than 70%, the share of higher education and STEM enrollment is very low; our own fundamental science is only developing, there is a shortage of personnel and a shortage of government research centers. Very weak infrastructure and technological base: almost complete absence of high-tech industry, import dependence in critical areas (IT, electronics, energy, medical equipment, food technology).

Significant vulnerability in food and energy: food and energy independence has not been achieved, the country is heavily dependent on weather conditions and external supplies. Insufficient development of the defense and security sector: small and poorly equipped armed forces, lack of their own defense industry, critical external dependence on military equipment and training.

Weak cybersecurity and the legal basis of personal data: the country is almost not represented in international cybersecurity rankings, the regulatory framework for personal data protection is basic, and there is no national security infrastructure.

Problems of social and internal sustainability: high level of poverty, high level of corruption, limited opportunities for young people, inequality between urban and rural areas, high level of migration of specialists.

Overall assessment. Timor-Leste's cumulative sovereignty index is 283.3 out of 700 possible points (average 40.5%), which places the country in the top 159th place in the world top. Timor-Leste is a country with a pronounced profile of a young, resourceful, but structurally vulnerable state, with long-term growth potential due to its great cultural heritage, energy resources, and geostrategic position.

However, in almost all systemic indicators (education, science, defense, technological/food independence, quality of public administration), vulnerability and dependence on large partners remain key constraints to development.

The sovereignty profile indicates that Timor-Leste demonstrates a relatively high degree of political and cultural independence, successful protection of key national interests, and a peculiar strategy of evading the dominant influence of alliances or large states.

The main vulnerabilities are import dependence in technology, defense, education, and food, as well as a weak fundamental scientific, human, and industrial base. Strategic resources, favorable geolocation, and active integration into international organizations provide a chance to overcome these challenges while maintaining formal and real sovereignty.