Introduction

This report provides a comprehensive analysis of Madagascar's sovereignty using the methodology of the Burke Institute. Sovereignty is assessed in 7 areas: political, economic, technological, informational, cultural, cognitive and military. Each aspect is assessed on the basis of official data from international and national sources (UN, World Bank, UNESCO, IMF, ITU, FAO, SIPRI, PISA, etc.) without using politicized indexes. The maximum score in each direction is 100; the sum (up to 700) is the accumulated Sovereignty Index (Burke Index).

To adapt and adjust statistical parameters, an international expert survey was conducted for each of the seven components using a single questionnaire of 10 questions with a 10-point scale and one open-ended question.

In total, at least 100 experts from 50+ countries were interviewed for each indicator, taking into account geographical representation and specialization. When calculating and analyzing the data, equalizing coefficients were used, bringing all data to a scale of 0-10 points.

The final index value is the arithmetic mean between statistical data and expert estimates.

Below is an analysis in each area, a summary table and the main conclusions about the peculiarities of Madagascar's sovereignty.

Political sovereignty — 41.2

Madagascar is an active member of more than 40 international organizations: the UN, WTO, African Union, SADC, COMESA, Francophonie, IMF, World Bank, IEEE, ILO, ICC, Interpol, UNESCO, ITU and others. The Constitution (Article 137) stipulates that ratified international treaties are above national legislation, but below the Constitution; in case of contradictions, the national constitution prevails.

Madagascar is a “monist" in the legal system: international treaties are automatically incorporated into the legal order after ratification. Domestic political stability remains low: the World Bank's political Stability index (2023) is -0.69 (from -2.5 to +2.5, negative value). Regular protests, contesting of election results, overflows between branches of government, high fragmentation of parties.

Government Effectiveness Index (WGI, 2023): -0.71 (very low, below the African average). EGDI index (2022-2024): 0.387 (ranked 155th out of 193 countries; extremely low level of digitalization and online services). The official level of support for President Andri Radzuelin has not been disclosed; according to polls conducted by international centers and independent agencies, it is below 30-40%.

Frustration remains high, especially in cities and among young people; the opposition regularly boycotts elections or disputes their results. There are no foreign military bases or permanent troops stationed in Madagascar. Madagascar is officially a member of the International Criminal Court (ICC) and a number of other tribunals; it recognizes their jurisdiction in cases of international crimes.

However, the authorities reserve the right not to enforce decisions that contradict the Constitution or national interests. The system is formally decentralized (22 regions, 6 provinces); in fact, most of the powers and finances are concentrated in the central administration and the president. The President oversees the appointment of governors, the financing and the work of the judicial system.

The transparency of the state security service and special services is extremely low: there is no effective parliamentary or judicial control, and the reporting system is closed. The President has the right to directly influence the courts and the appointment of the main defendants in law enforcement agencies, high corruption and lack of independent expertise are recorded.

Assessment of data completeness: the main indicators are available from international sources, the coverage is 88%.

Economic sovereignty — 32.8

Estimate for 2025: $1,723–1,884 (PPP, current international dollars), according to Trading Economics — $1,723, according to World Bank — $1,884, according to Statista — $2,040. $2.78 billion (2024), a historical maximum for the country; coverage is about 4.8 months of imports. In 2025, 39.2–51.3% of GDP is expected (according to various sources: Trading Economics, Statista, The Global Economy, WB, IMF).

The national debt is moderate, but it is partly growing due to attracted loans and development programs. About 30-40% of the population is subject to periodic food shortages; the country maintains a general shortage of rice, corn, vegetable oils, and food shocks often due to droughts and natural disasters.

Domestic production covers less than 25% of energy consumption (based on hydropower and biomass); most of the fuel, petroleum products, and equipment are imported. The share of the population with access to electricity is 30-36% (2024). Mineral resources are nickel, cobalt, chromium, bauxite, sapphires, gold, titanium, graphite; there are deposits of uranium and rare earth metals, marine phosphorite; forest and agricultural resources are important for export.

There is enough fresh water, large rivers and lakes, but only 35-45% of the population have constant access to clean water (the gap between urban and rural areas). The problems are seasonal droughts and underdeveloped infrastructure.

The Central Bank of Madagascar (Banky Foiben'i Madagasikara) manages the national payment system, operates a system of cashless and mobile payments through Mvola, Orange Money, Airtel Money, national clearing. More than 80% of domestic transactions are in ariari (MGA); dollarization and euroization remain only in the sphere of foreign trade and investments.

The Central Bank (BFM) fully controls the country's issuance and credit policy, sets the base rate, regulates inflation and maintains liquidity. The currency is floating, but there is currency regulation to ensure stability and control inflation.

Data completeness assessment: the main macroeconomic indicators are available from official sources (World Bank, IMF), coverage is 83%

Technological sovereignty — 22.7

0.01% of GDP (according to UN, World Bank, 2017-2024), one of the lowest rates in the world; trend towards stagnation. Import dependence on high-tech and IT products is more than 98%; there is no local industrial production of machinery, microelectronics or equipment, and national IT ecosystems are practically not formed.

Net coverage ratio: 6.41% (2023, World Bank). In absolute terms, it is one of the lowest levels in the world. Internet penetration: 20.4% of the population (6.6 million users, January 2025). In cities ~37%, in rural areas — less than 10% (estimated by ITU). The E-Gov MG state portal is implemented for three functions: tax services, electronic public services (payment of basic bills and licenses), mobile fintech platforms based on Mvola/Orange Money.

Coverage and integration are limited, and digital government is deployed in fragments. 95-99% of hardware and software are imported, and the national high-tech sector is almost nonexistent (except for fintech products based on a mobile platform). EGDI — 0.387 (155th place); only basic services have been transferred online, the public sector is mostly offline, and there are no deep IT platforms.

There are no national biotechnological industries; all vaccines, test systems, and medical equipment are purchased through grants and international funds. Robotic autonomy is completely absent: there is no national R&D or industry, there are no implementations in industry and government agencies. It is completely absent: there are no development or production centers at either the corporate or state level, and 100% of the market is made up of imported solutions.

Data completeness assessment: key indicators are obtained from WIPO, ITU, UNESCO, which provides 82% coverage.

Information sovereignty — 37.4

The ITU GCI Cybersecurity Index is Tier 4/5 (NCSI: 14.3%), which means an extremely low level of maturity. There is no national CERT (CSIRT), there are at least specialized structures; the country is in the "low cyber resilience" group according to international ratings.

There is 1 IXP in the country — Madagascar Global Internet eXchange (MGIX), in the capital Antananarivo, opened in 2016. MGIX serves large providers and the iRENALA university network; the overall interconnect network is developing slowly and is poorly integrated into global exchange.

The main language of the media is Malagasy (the official national language); French, Malagasy dialects and partly English are widely used. There are several dozen radio, TV, and print media outlets broadcasting entirely or partially in Malagasy.

The largest digital platforms and social networks (Facebook, WhatsApp, Google, YouTube) completely dominate, there are no national analogues; the share of local developers and startups is <1% of the digital market. BigTech regulation has not been introduced; the government does not implement standards compatible with the EU or CIS for the protection of local data.

It is estimated that 50-60% of TV and radio content is of national origin, the rest is foreign broadcasts and online content. The online and social media segment accounts for less than 25% of local groups, blogs, and news sites.

There are no large national products or industry; separate fintech solutions (Mvola, Orange Money), public services through the state portal and CRM, no exported or large-scale software services. Basic services (public services, mobile finance, news) are available to 18-22% of the population (coincides with the level of Internet penetration); there is no mass digitalization, IOT has not been implemented.

There are no national cloud infrastructures in the country, the vast majority of data storage is provided by foreign services (Google, AWS, mobile applications). The operators (Orange MG, Airtel MG, Telma) are licensed by the ARTEC regulator; network and technical standards are determined by the GOVERNMENT, but most of the equipment is imported.

The service and customer support are mostly national, but the software components are completely foreign. The law on Personal data protection has been developed since 2021, and so far it has only been partially adopted (registration of some operators and PAID processing permits).

There is no full-fledged GDPR-compliant regime or national expertise. Data completeness assessment: infrastructure indicators are available from ITU, CIRA, OECD and specialized sources, coverage is 86%.

Cultural sovereignty — 74.3

3 UNESCO World Heritage Sites: Royal Hill of Ambohimanga (cultural), Rainforests of the Atsinanana and Tsingy de Bemaraha Strict Nature Reserve (both natural). Madagascar's culture is a unique synthesis of African, Asian (Malay) and European (French) influences. Contributions: world musical heritage (valiha instrument, wind and plucked traditions), business arts and crafts, rituals of ancestor worship, oral literature.

There are national grants and awards in the fields of music, painting, and crafts (for example, Fonds Yavarhoussen, the national competition for fine arts and crafts, and the state prizes of the Presidential Foundation). Cooperation with UNESCO and support for the artist's profession through Artist/Professional status.

Collectivism, the cult of ancestors (famadihana), kaba (funeral) rituals, traditional vodiondry weddings, and its own taboo system, fadi, are central. Ethnic diversity (18 nations), unique languages and a multi-layered oral tradition, holidays are celebrated in each region in different ways. All major ethnic groups (Malagasy, Merina, Betsileo, Sehanaka, etc.) are recognized, cultural centers, national festivals, and state programs for documenting traditions are officially supported. Laws on the preservation of ethnic, cultural and linguistic diversity.

More than 50 museums, 18 regional ethnographic centers, dozens of galleries and craft markets. Keywords: National Museum of Madagascar, museums of Ambohimanga, cultural houses of the colonial era. Madagascar Contemporary Art, collaboration with UNESCO on crafts and music, Imago Mundi and Malagasy art exhibitions abroad, transnational architectural, gastronomic and environmental projects.

Brand protection is established by national legislation and through UNESCO registries (craft brands, music, Malagasy Arts, agroexport products). Laws on the protection of intangible cultural heritage have been adopted since 2022. Base dishes: rice (vary), laoka (sauces), romazawa, ravitoto (meat with cassava), street food with Indo-Asian influences, fish and seafood, spices and milk yogurt. Food traditions depend on the region; there are many variants of local drinks (ranumanon).

An estimated 60-80% actively participate in local rituals, festivals, folklore competitions, craft contests, and cultural initiatives (mainly in rural areas and small towns).

Data completeness assessment: basic indicators are available in UNESCO and national statistics, coverage is 85%.

Cognitive sovereignty — 42.6

HDI (2025): 0.487 (very low, ranked 183rd in the world, category “low human development"). 3.1–3.2% of GDP (2022-2025, World Bank/IMF), below the average for Sub—Saharan Africa; for 2010-2024, the average value is 2.7–3.2%. 77.5% (as of 2022; men — 78-80%, women — 74-75%). Youth literacy (15-24): ~65%.

Madagascar does not participate in PISA testing and other global standardized assessments. It is estimated that 15-20% of students graduate from STEM majors (higher and technical education). ~10% of the programs are implemented in cooperation with foreign universities and foundations (French, German campuses, missionary and donor projects).

There are 18 officially recognized ethnic groups, 23 variants of the Malagasy language; the State supports regional languages and local cultures through laws on the preservation of intangible heritage and ethnic traditions. As of 2025: 2-3 national research institutes (National Institute of Applied Research, Agricultural and University Centers of Fundamental Sciences). It is estimated that <3% of pupils and students are covered by national distance platforms (the MINESUP portal, the E-learning project of universities).

The volume of state talent support programs does not exceed 1,000–3,000 people per year (scholarships, grants for study abroad, competitions, pilot accelerators jointly with UNESCO/AFD).

Data completeness assessment: education indicators are available in the UNDP, UNESCO, OECD, coverage is 86%.

Military sovereignty — 31.8

0.66% of GDP (2023-2025), one of the lowest rates in the world; the absolute budget is $121.6 million for 2024. 21,000 military personnel (13,500 Army, 2,000 Navy, 1,000 Air Force, 4,500 reserve/special forces); additionally 8,100 gendarmerie and police officers (paramilitary reserve).

Armament categories of the 1970s and 1990s: there are no modern combat aircraft/tanks, there are light armored vehicles, patrol ships, outdated helicopters, ~50 armored vehicles, 15+ patrol boats; modernization is limited to airworthiness support, repairs, rare helicopter purchases.

There is no national production (0%); all equipment and weapons are imported or provided with international assistance (France, China, Russia, USA). Repairs are being carried out on the basis of national workshops, but no new designs are being created.

Control is moderate: the military and gendarmerie patrol the shores (counter-piracy), conduct local operations on land and in ports; individual incidents of illegal migration and smuggling are possible. The reserve of the army and special forces is about 5,000—8,000 people; additionally mobilized are the gendarmerie and the police reserve. The country is outside international alliances, decisions are made by the national General Staff and the president, but exercises and exchanges are conducted with the United States (special forces), France, and China.

Military assistance and lobbying are often essential when upgrading equipment. It is completely absent; the entire industry is limited to the service and repair of foreign products, purchases are finished products and equipment. There are no nuclear weapons, the country has signed the NPT, and the development and transit of such weapons is prohibited.

There is no military space program, all the intelligence is field units, radio-electronic and coastal services, and light UAVs on an imported base. The technical equipment is minimal, there is no integration with satellite networks. All parameters are reflected in the annual reports of SIPRI, UNODA, the Ministry of Defense, the official portals of state-owned companies (Embraer, IMBEL) and the UN/NGO industry databases - 84% coverage

Final Summary Table

The main conclusions

Strengths. Biological and cultural diversity: a unique ecosystem, 150,000 endemics, a wealth of traditions (18 nations, dozens of languages and their own ethnographic cultures), a strong ritual and collective identity (famadihana, taboo "fadi", family holidays). Significant UNESCO sites: three world sites (Ambohimanga, Atsinanan and Tsingi rainforests) supported by the state and the international community.

Export resource potential: significant proven reserves of nickel, graphite, sapphires, gold, agro-industrial export industries (spices, cocoa, coffee, vanilla), good conditions for the development of tourism. Local craft traditions and gastronomy: the school of wooden carving, traditional fabrics, the worldwide distribution of Malagasy musical instruments and a vibrant culinary base with regional features have been preserved.

The State Support for ethnic and linguistic diversity: there is a system of ethnocultural centers, official recognition of languages and cultures, a state policy for the preservation of small nations, large festivals and folklore competitions are held.

Geographical and climatic advantages: tropical climate, diverse natural areas, agro-climatic potential, seaports on the Indian Ocean.

Weaknesses. Systemic socio-economic deficit: one of the lowest HDI in the world (0.487), poverty above the regional average, low investment in scientific research (0.01% of GDP), difficulties with access to education and modern medicine, less than 6.5% of young people in higher education, the unsolvable problem of literacy and digital inequality.

Low technological and digital sovereignty: almost complete import dependence on IT, high-tech, biotechnologies and dual education; lack of own national IT platforms, research centers, modern production facilities; EGDI is ranked 155th in the world (“very low level of digitalization").

Weak infrastructure and public administration: defense spending 0.66% of GDP, outdated weapons, lack of a military-industrial complex, low transparency and management efficiency (WGI: -0.71), centralized control over resources. Food safety and energy dependence: one third are subject to periodic food crises, less than 25% of domestic energy production, more than 50% of electricity and fuel are imported; only 36% have access to electricity.

The limited scale of national markets and the low share of domestic exchange of services: the dominance of commodities in trade, low dollarization in settlements, weak development of domestic services and markets.

Law and the law enforcement unit: there is no independent control of the special services and courts, high levels of corruption, vague mechanisms for the distribution of powers between the center and the regions.

Overall assessment. Madagascar's cumulative sovereignty Index is 282.8 out of 700 possible points (below the average of 40.4%), which places the country in the top 161st place in the global top.

Madagascar is a country of unique bio- and cultural diversity, rich in resources and distinctive traditions, but suffering from deep institutional, technological, educational and infrastructural vulnerabilities. The advantages — natural capital, export and tourism potential, and interethnic identity — are strongly offset by social deficits, an outdated economy, critically low technological independence, and a lack of assimilation of modern development models.

A significant increase in sovereignty is possible only through measures to stimulate education, science, infrastructure development, institutional reforms and digital transformation throughout the country. The sovereignty profile indicates that Madagascar's sovereignty is based on a unique natural and cultural capital, formal political and legal autonomy, and basic monetary and financial independence.

Its potential is constrained by an undeveloped infrastructure, weak education and research institutions, low digital and technological levels, institutional instability, inefficient management, and significant dependence on imported resources and solutions.

Strengthening sovereignty is possible through investments in education, digitalization, infrastructure development, increased institutional transparency, and the creation of national ecosystems in modern sectors.