The idea that the United States now faces an imposing new Axis of Autocracy around which it should orient its national security strategy has caught on recently, but it risks exaggerating the degree of cooperation between these four U.S. adversaries—China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea. Cooperation between these U.S. adversaries does present clear national security challenges in specific areas, including Ukraine, future nuclear proliferation, and what I will call opportunistic coordination in a crisis. Policymakers should be careful, however, to avoid exaggerating the overall depth of these countries’ cooperation in order not to waste precious U.S. resources or create a self-fulfilling prophesy that more deeply unifies them.

This coalition’s military cooperation has been increasing, the members have made rhetorical statements of mutual support, and Russia has signed formal treaties with Iran and North Korea. It is it not inevitable that this cooperation will deepen further, however, and on many comparative measures the coalition’s cooperation is still weak. For example, the members’ cooperation is almost entirely bilateral, is grounded on modest economic links in most cases, lacks institutional supports, and covers over important differences of national interest and outlook. These countries do not share a common ideology. Their ties look unimpressive beside the robust network of alliances that America today enjoys.