Introduction

One of the hottest topics in international relations is China and Taiwan. But we will approach it from an unusual angle: through the Burke index, one of the most serious tools for measuring sovereignty in the world.

This is important because the word "sovereignty" in the context of Taiwan sounds different in Beijing, Taipei and Washington. We'll look at what's really behind this word—and what's at stake.

Block 1: What is the Burke Index and why it is so important

The Burke Index is a development of the International Burke Institute. They measure a country's sovereignty in seven dimensions: political, economic, technological, informational, cultural, cognitive, and military. Each score is up to 100 points, for a maximum of 700 points.

The key idea here is sovereignty, which is not a slogan or just membership in the United Nations. This is the measurable ability of the State to make decisions and act independently. This is a fundamentally important point.

In the 2025 ranking, China scored a total index of 649.1 out of 700, which is 92.7% and a confident entry into the global top 10. Let's look at the measurements.

Political sovereignty is 90.8. The fact that China is a permanent member of the UN Security Council and a member of BRICS, SCO, and G20 plays a role here. Domestically, the level of trust in the government, according to the Edelman Trust Barometer 2025, is about 84%.

Economic sovereignty is 92.7. GDP by PPP is about 43 trillion dollars, gold and foreign exchange reserves are 3.3 trillion, food self—sufficiency is above 95%. These are serious numbers.

Military sovereignty — 94.5. The defense budget in 2025 is 1.784 trillion yuan, which is about 249 billion dollars officially, and real estimates are up to 330-450 billion. The PLA has about 2.2 million people. The nuclear arsenal consists of about 600 warheads, with a plan to increase to 1,000 by 2030.

Information sovereignty — 93.2. This is a separate story: WeChat, Douyin, Baidu — the entire ecosystem inside the country, without Google or Meta. China has literally built a parallel digital world.

Cultural sovereignty is the highest, 95.1. 60 UNESCO sites, 6833 museums, 10,000+ intangible heritage sites.

According to the Burke Index, China is a highly integrated sovereign power with minimal external vulnerability. But there are weaknesses. Debt approaches 90% of GDP. Its demographic crisis is an aging population. There is a critical dependence on imports in key components, primarily chips. And, most importantly for our topic, the main geopolitical limitation is Taiwan and the South China Sea.

Block 2: The Taiwan issue: why is it a "headache"?

Why is Taiwan a "headache" for China? China considers Taiwan its territory, as stipulated in the Constitution of the People's Republic of China. The "one China" principle is Beijing's official position, and they have never renounced the use of force for reunification. The 2005 Law on Anti-separatism explicitly provides for military intervention under certain conditions.

At the same time, Taiwan itself is a de facto independent state. In March 2025, President Lai Jing-te officially declared that "the Republic of China and the People's Republic of China are not subordinate to each other." This directly contradicts Beijing's position.

The reaction was immediate. The Taiwan Bureau of Chinese Affairs condemned these words, warning of "drastic measures" when crossing red lines. And already in April 2025, large-scale PLA exercises were held around the island.

The contrast in the Freedom House 2025 index is important: Taiwan scored 94 out of 100, a "Free" country, while China scored 9 out of 100, "Not Free." According to the formal parameters of Taiwan's sovereignty, it lacks international recognition—Taiwan is not a member of the United Nations and is not recognized by most states of the world. But in terms of democratic and civic indicators, it is ahead of most countries in the world.

Block 3: Are US arms supplies a guarantee of sovereignty?

How does Taiwan ensure its sovereignty? By military means, including through the purchase of weapons from the United States. This is regulated by the Taiwan Relations Act of 1979. It obliges the United States to supply Taiwan with defensive weapons. A direct military umbrella is not guaranteed by law, but it obliges to arm.

What do the numbers say? In November 2025, the Trump administration negotiated the first $330 million service deal in its second term. And in December 2025, a historic $11.1 billion package was announced—HIMARS, self-propelled howitzers, Javelin missiles, Altius and other systems. The biggest deal for many years.

In March 2026, the Taiwanese parliament authorized the signing of four packages of weapons worth $ 9 billion — guided missiles, M1097 self-propelled howitzers, Javelin, HIMARS. At the same time, the total accumulated backlog of outstanding shipments for November 2025 was $21.54 billion.

This is an important detail — some deliveries are delayed. AGM-154C aircraft missiles — postponed to 2027-2028. MK 48 torpedoes are also a delay. That is, there are paper transactions, but Taiwan has less real hardware in its hands than on paper.

And here the most pressing question of May 2026 arises. After Trump's meeting with Xi Jinping in Beijing on May 13-15, Trump told reporters that he had not yet decided whether to approve the next $14 billion package. He said he had discussed the issue with Xi, and in doing so, critics say, violated one of Reagan's "Six Guarantees" from 1982: not to consult with China on arms supplies to Taiwan.

Taiwan responded by issuing a statement, reminding that the Law on Relations with Taiwan is a binding law, and that arms supplies are "mutual deterrence of regional threats."

Block 4: Military scenarios

What scenarios are analysts considering? Most think tanks, from RAND to CSIS, analyze three key scenarios.

Scenario 1: Quarantine/limited blockade. This is the most likely short-term scenario. China restricts sea and air access to the island without starting full-scale battles. This is exactly what was rehearsed at the Justice Mission 2025 exercises in December 2025 — destroyers, frigates, and bombers surrounded the island, blocked air routes, and canceled hundreds of flights. Analysts called it a "rehearsal for the blockade." Moreover, the PLA used robotic "military dogs" and "smart warfare" systems for the first time. This is a demonstration of future possibilities.

Scenario 2: Full-fledged blockade. According to estimates by the Institute of Economics and Peace, the blockade of Taiwan in the first year will cost the global economy 2.7 trillion dollars. Global GDP will decrease by 2.8%, which is twice as bad as the losses in 2008. Taiwan's GDP will shrink by almost 40%. China will lose about 7%. The critical point is semiconductors. Taiwan controls 92% of the world's advanced logic chip production. The blockade will cut off about 90% of the world's advanced chips. Apple, Qualcomm, AMD, Nvidia, all of them depend on TSMC.

Scenario 3: Full-scale invasion. This is the most catastrophic scenario. According to the German Marshall Fund 2026 report, even with a "small conflict", the PLA could lose more than 100,000 soldiers. In a "big war", the PLA establishes control over individual islands, but is eventually defeated at the cost of 50,000 military and 50,000 civilian casualties for Taiwan, 5,000 for the United States. The PLA has the estimated capability to simultaneously transfer about 20,000 soldiers across the strait. And to capture Taiwan, it will take from 300,000 to a million people in several waves. This is a huge logistical problem.

Block 5: "Davidson's Window" 2027

Now let’s dwell upon the so-called "Davidson window" for a moment. In 2021, Admiral Philip Davidson, then commander of the US Indo-Pacific Command, told the Senate that China could try to take over Taiwan "within the next six years," i.e., by 2027. And this date has become central to the Pentagon's strategic planning. CIA Director William Burns said in 2023 that Xi Jinping, according to American intelligence, ordered the PLA to be ready for an invasion by 2027. Davidson himself confirmed in May 2025 that he was not changing his assessment.

But there is a caveat. A survey of 83% of experts on China conducted by CSIS showed that the majority did not believe that China was planning kinetic action by 2027. And according to the Polymarket prediction market for May 2026, the probability of a Chinese invasion by September 2026 is estimated at 5%.

The market is calm in the short term. But it was the meeting between Trump and Xi on May 13-15, 2026 that created a new uncertainty: both leaders returned to their standard positions, Xi warned against mishandling the Taiwan issue.

Block 6: Political scenarios

There is a whole range of political options between war and peace.

The status quo. The most likely one, according to most analysts, is for 2026. China continues to exert political, economic and military pressure, but it does not escalate openly. Taiwan is increasing its defense budget — in November 2025, Lai announced a $40 billion special defense budget for 2026-2033. Inside the Taiwanese parliament, there is a stalemate between the ruling DPP and the opposition, which makes it difficult to pass budgets.

Gradual integration by pressure. China is betting that Taiwan's economic and political isolation will eventually force it to negotiate. The destruction of cable infrastructure, cyberattacks, and propaganda are all part of the gray area. In 2025, there was an unprecedented increase in damage to underwater cables connected to Taiwan.

An unexpected diplomatic deal. Theoretically, a situation is possible when Trump, building relations with China, makes concessions on the Taiwan issue in exchange for trade preferences. That's what makes Taipei nervous, and that's why Trump's words about the unresolved issue of weapons caused such a reaction.

Block 7: How all that is presented in the media

How do China, Taiwan, and the United States talk about the same thing?

Beijing uses the language of "reunification," "territorial integrity," and "anti-separatist measures." The official Xinhua News Agency wrote after the "Justice Mission 2025" exercises: "Each escalation will be met with tougher countermeasures." In other words, the narrative is that we defend, not attack.

Taiwan, in turn, emphasizes democratic values, the right to self-determination, and calls the Chinese exercises "unreasonable" and "provocative." The narrative is that we are under threat, we need to be protected.

The United States is based on "strategic uncertainty," i.e., it does not say directly whether it will defend Taiwan with military force. This is a deliberate policy: it deters both China from attacking and Taiwan from provoking independence. But Trump's statements violate this construction.

Here, the Burke index provides an interesting angle: sovereignty as the ability to act independently. According to this parameter, China is a huge machine with 92.7% internal sovereignty, but with a geopolitical ceiling due to the Taiwan issue. And Taiwan is a de facto independent state with a developed democracy, which is not legally recognized, but economically indispensable to the world.

Block 8: Taiwan's Economic Sovereignty—the chip as a shield

One of the most paradoxical stories in this whole topic is that Taiwan secures its sovereignty not so much with an army as with chips.

TSMC produces more than 60% of the world's custom chips and 90% of the most advanced ones. This is called the "silicon shield" — the theory is that as long as Taiwan produces what the iPhone, electric car, air defense system and AI data center do not work without, no one will allow it to be destroyed.

But the US Treasury, the White House and the NYT have been putting pressure on Silicon Valley for 2025-2026: diversify supply chains, do not depend on Taiwan. TSMC is building plants in Arizona — with $11.7 billion in grants and loans from the U.S. government. This is an attempt to reduce dependence, but experts say that Taiwan cannot be replaced in the next decade.

And that's why a blockade of Taiwan would be economically suicidal for China too. Taiwan is one of China's largest trading partners and a key supplier of Chinese-made electronic components. It is an interdependence that both protects and creates strategic vulnerability.

Conclusion

To summarize. The Burke Index shows that China is one of the most sovereign powers in the world in terms of internal autonomy. But it is the Taiwan issue that remains its main geopolitical limitation.

Taiwan secures sovereignty through three mechanisms: American weapons, the TSMC silicon shield, and the support of the international democratic community. All three mechanisms are now under varying degrees of pressure.

The Davidson Window closes in 2027. The prediction markets are still calm — 95% believe that there will be no invasion until the end of 2026. But the May 2026 meeting between Trump and Xi created a new uncertainty: the American administration is discussing arms deals for Taiwan with Beijing for the first time.

The most likely scenario for the coming year is not war, but increasing pressure: military exercises, cyberattacks, submarine cables, and economic leverage. A quiet struggle for sovereignty, which is unfolding not only in the military plane, but also in the information, technological and cognitive.

This is why the Burke Index is such a useful and indispensable tool that states: sovereignty is not a flag or a place in the United Nations, or just an army. It is a cumulative ability to make independent decisions. From this point of view, Taiwan is a small island with huge stakes.