Introduction

This report provides a comprehensive analysis of Bahrain's sovereignty using the methodology of the Burke Institute. Sovereignty is assessed in 7 areas: political, economic, technological, informational, cultural, cognitive and military. Each aspect is assessed on the basis of official data from international and national sources (UN, World Bank, UNESCO, IMF, ITU, FAO, SIPRI, PISA, etc.) without using politicized indexes. The maximum score in each direction is 100; the sum (up to 700) is the accumulated Sovereignty Index (Burke Index).

To adapt and adjust statistical parameters, an international expert survey was conducted for each of the seven components using a single questionnaire of 10 questions with a 10-point scale and one open-ended question. In total, at least 100 experts from 50+ countries were interviewed for each indicator, taking into account geographical representation and specialization. When calculating and analyzing the data, equalizing coefficients were used, bringing all data to a scale of 0-10 points.

The final index value is the arithmetic mean between statistical data and expert estimates.

Below is an analysis in each area, a summary summary table and the main conclusions about the features of Bahrain's sovereignty.

Political sovereignty — 41.6

Bahrain actively participates in the GCC (Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Persian Gulf), the United Nations, the League of Arab States, the WTO, the IMF, the IBRD, and regularly participates in regional economic and cultural initiatives and international forums, including delegation visits to SPIEF and other major venues.

Bahrain's National Constitution formally proclaims the supremacy of national law, and international treaties are ratified by Parliament and incorporated into the legal system, subject to constitutional compliance. The Supreme Court of Bahrain may take into account international principles, but in case of conflict, constitutional law always takes precedence.

The political stability Index (WGI, World Bank, 2023) is -0.37; the country is considered moderately stable against the background of the region, but latent risks of conflicts between the Sunni leadership and the Shiite majority remain. The right balance is maintained through control over the political process and the state apparatus.

The Government Effectiveness Index (WGI, 2024) is 0.45, which is higher than the regional average and confirms the efficient work of administrative authorities, quick decisions and relatively high quality of public services. EGDI (E-Government Development Index, UN 2024) — 0.79, Bahrain is among the top 20 countries in the world, has a transparent and widely integrated system of e-government services, and high growth rates of digital services. King Hamad ibn Isa al-Khalifa enjoys high formal support and legitimacy, and polls show confidence in the institution of the monarchy, although some groups (mostly Shiites) express dissatisfaction with domestic politics and demand reforms.

Public confrontation is limited, and there are no real threats to the general institution of government. Bahrain hosts the headquarters of the US 5th Fleet (Manama), the UK Maritime Component Command base; there are joint facilities and training centers, which provides strategic support for regional security, but limits military autonomy.

Bahrain participates in international courts and recognizes individual decisions of the ICC and other bodies, distancing is carried out only on issues of national sovereignty and when decisions contradict the constitution; the courts take into account party autonomy and the main international norms, including forum non conveniences.

Power is extremely centralized: the king and the cabinet control the main sectors, appoint members of the Shura, and form the government. Decentralization is carried out to a limited extent (municipal councils, individual functions in the economy and digital services).

The activities of the special services and state security agencies (NSA, law enforcement agencies) are closed to public control, the level of transparency is low; parliamentary oversight is minimal, public institutions do not have access to operational information and procedures for real control.

Data completeness assessment: the main indicators are available from international sources, coverage is 94%.

Economic sovereignty — 62.3

GDP per capita by PPP is $63,500- 67,800 (World Bank, IMF, Trading Economics, 2025). Gold and foreign exchange reserves are 4.1–4.6 billion USD (February — July 2025, according to the Central Bank of Bahrain; 1.4–1.7 billion BHD — in national currency). Government debt — 90.7–141.4% of GDP (variation according to accounting methods, CEIC, Statista, Trading Economics, 2024-2025); official metric — about 103% of GDP (PPP) and up to 130-141% (nominal value). ~80-86% of basic foodstuffs are imported; food security depends on the stability of imports (the country is not experiencing mass hunger, but price and access depend on world markets).

National support programs provide a reserve stock for 4-6 months. Bahrain has its own oil and gas reserves, the level of independence is up to 55-60%; however, the country imports gas and petroleum products from Saudi Arabia and Qatar, the long-term goal is the development of renewable energy sources.

Proven reserves: oil (small deposits), gas, aluminum (the largest plant in the Middle East), related rare earth metals; minerals are limited in volume, the main development is the oil and gas sector. One of the lowest rates in the region: less than 90 cubic meters per person/year; the main source is desalination and underground wells, combined with the import of drinking water from neighboring countries; the long-term deficit is significant. The national payment system BenefitPay has been developed, integration with the Central Bank and all major banks; the share of national processing in the segment of retail and corporate payments is more than 95%.

The main domestic settlements are in the Bahraini dinar (BHD), in foreign trade — the dollar and the Saudi riyal; the degree of de-dollarization is low, but BHD fully handles public and private payments within the country.

The issuing center is the Central Bank of Bahrain (CBB); credit policy, money market regulation, interest rates and issue control are completely under the control of the Central Bank. The issue, control over lending, and currency transactions are sovereign.

Data completeness assessment: the main macroeconomic indicators are available from official sources (World Bank, IMF), coverage is 94%

Technological sovereignty — 50.8

R&D 0.10% of GDP (World Bank, CEIC, last updated in 2014; the dynamics has not changed). Import substitution is weak: <10% of high-tech equipment and software is produced nationally, most components and technologies are imported from the USA, EU, China. 71.96% of young people are enrolled in universities (2023, UNESCO, World Bank) — one of the best indicators in the region and the world.

Women make up more than 50% of all students. 99% of the population uses the Internet, and the digital coverage is almost complete — 1.61 million users. Mobile coverage is 137% (including multiple SIM cards per person).

The country is developing a series of national platforms: BenefitPay (payments), Gov.bh (public services), national solutions for transport, medicine, mobile communications; the share of local software is about 35-40%, the rest is imported bases. Import dependence is more than 85%; the main segment of equipment and software is imported (China, USA, Europe), local products are few in number. EGDI — 0.79 (UN, 2024); Bahrain is among the top 20 countries in terms of digitalization of public services: electronic cards, education portals, medicine, taxes, transport; access — 100% for citizens and residents.

Bahrain has basic pharmaceutical production facilities (Gulf Biotech, National Health Labs), but more than 70% of the technologies are imported, and autonomy is low. The robotics market is at an early stage; local projects are underway in the logistics, banking and medical sectors, but the import of components and software accounts for more than 90%.

The country is completely dependent on the import of chips and microelectronics (China, USA, EU); there is no own factory, educational and laboratory prototypes are being developed, and there is no industrial production.

Data completeness assessment: key indicators are obtained from WIPO, ITU, UNESCO, which provides 92% coverage.

Information sovereignty — 56.2

The country has a National Cybersecurity Center (NCSC) and a national CIRT. Bahrain regularly participates in ITU Global CyberDrill, ranks high on the ITU cybersecurity Index, and is among the top 50 countries in the world on the Cyber Security Readiness Maturity Index. Bahrain has 1 active Internet traffic exchange point (IXP) - Gateway Gulf Internet Exchange Bahrain (Manama); the level of network peer-to-peer development is about 25%.

The media is actively working in Arabic (the official language), as well as in English, Malayalam, Hindi, Filipino, Tamil and other languages for large ethnic groups. State-owned and private newspapers, television and radio are mostly under the control of the Information Affairs Authority, while the distinct identity of the content remains.

Most digital services, clouds and software are foreign (Google, Meta, Microsoft, Amazon AWS), the sovereignty of national platforms reaches 35-40% for the main services (BenefitPay, Gov.bh, telecom).

Cybersecurity is being developed based on ITU international standards. Own media production accounts for about 42-45%: national newspapers, TV, portals and online resources predominate in the Arab segment, the rest are international/aggregated content. The share of domestic solutions is 35-40%: the majority is related to financial technologies (BenefitPay), government platforms, digital services for medicine, transport and education.

Internet penetration is 99% of the population; digital public services, fintech, and e-health are available to almost all residents, and mobile communications account for more than 137% of coverage (including multi-SIM per person).

The infrastructure of national clouds is well developed: the banking sector, fintech, government data are stored on local data centers; some services are on foreign clouds (AWS, Azure), but the share of local solutions is growing. Key mobile operators (Batelco, Zain, stc) are under the jurisdiction of the government, the infrastructure has been upgraded to 5G standards, management and billing are under state control; servers in the country, equipment is combined (local import).

The Personal Data Protection Law has been adopted, and the national regulatory system is operating under the control of the NCSC and the Central Bank. The data storage and access localization system is implemented in public services and banking according to the European model, transparency is average.

Data completeness assessment: infrastructure indicators are available from ITU, CIRA, OECD and specialized sources, coverage is 91%.

Cultural sovereignty — 62.7

3 active UNESCO World Heritage Sites:

• Qal'at al-Bahrain (Fort, the ancient capital of Dilmun civilization, 2005)

• Pearling, testimony of an island economy (Pearl Industry Route, 2012)

• Dilmun Burial Mounds (Dilmun Burial Mounds, 2019)

Additionally, there are 6 objects in the candidate list (tentative list). Bahrain is the oldest commercial and cultural center of the Persian Gulf, the capital of the Dilmun civilization, the largest monument of archeology and maritimate culture, the center of Arab and Arab-Iranian art exchange, unique rituals of the maritime industry, the heritage of the pearl industry, architectural and handicraft traditions.

There are national awards in the field of drama, art, literature: Al Dana Drama Award (Bahrain National Theatre), Yusuf Bin Ahmed Kanoo Award (fine arts, cultural identity), Spring of Culture Festivals grants. The national identity is based on a mixture of Arab, Persian, African and Indian roots, Sunni-Shiite culture, traditions of crafts, pearl industry, architecture and mythology of Dilmun.

A special place is occupied by family and sea rituals, national holidays, scenes of evening entertainment and weddings. State support programs include projects to preserve the languages and cultures of Indian, Pakistani, Iranian, and African communities, individual archives and ethnocultural museums, initiatives at the Ministry of Culture, and quotas for participation in festivals and competitions.

The register includes over 480 objects — museums, archaeological sites, national museums, galleries, manor houses, ancient burial grounds, archaeological parks, religious and commercial pavilions. The country actively participates in the World Expo 2025 (Osaka), organizes joint exhibitions with France, Japan, the United Arab Emirates, the EU, holds the Spring of Culture Festival, has a pavilion at major international venues, cooperates with UNESCO, the International Association of Artists, implements interregional art programs.

Cultural brands include pearls, traditional architecture, foundries, culinary and textile products; state protection is provided through branding, export—oriented positioning and participation in international conventions, support for GOST standards and licenses. Bahraini cuisine is a mixture of Arabic, Indian, Persian, African and European traditions: mahbus, gozi, harira, kabsa, machbus, biryani, dates, tea with cardamom, fish, seafood, okra, sweets, various treats for holidays.

The engagement index is 45-52% of the adult population (Spring of Culture events, Art Studio 244, Expo, museums, theaters, art residences, educational projects, annual city festivals). Data completeness assessment: basic indicators are available in UNESCO and national statistics, coverage is 92%.

Cognitive sovereignty — 59.5

HDI — 0.899 (2025, 3rd place among Arab countries, 38th in the world; category "very high level"). Government spending is 1.99% of GDP (2022-2025) and 9.3% of the total budget. Adult literacy (15+) is 98%. Men — 96.9%, women — 93.5%; illiteracy — below 2%.

Bahrain participates in PISA; indicators are stable — below the OECD average, but above the regional one (accurate data are published in OECD reports, results are available on request). STEM graduates account for 42-46% of all university graduates (Bahrain is the leader among the Gulf countries in this indicator).

The share of foreign programs is 5-7% (scholarships, international partner schools, online universities, exchange programs; the main directions are Great Britain, USA, UAE, Egypt). Arabs, Bahrainis, Indians, Pakistanis, Filipinos, Iranians, etc. are represented in the country; national programs for the preservation of languages and cultures of small communities, educational projects, cultural centers and festivals operate under the auspices of the Ministry of Culture.

Officially there are up to 10 major national research centers (university institutes, Bahraini Research Foundation, national laboratories for biotech, mathematics, engineering, and petroleum). The share of national platforms is 21-26% (Darsak, Gov.bh, corporate and university e-services), the rest of the market — international solutions and platforms.

There are more than 12 national programs in the country (Art Academy, Young Innovators, STEM Discovery, grants from the Ministry of Culture and the Ministry of Education, Kanoo awards, Al Dana Award), reaching up to 45,000 people annually.

Data completeness assessment: education indicators are available in the UNDP, UNESCO, OECD, coverage is 90%.

Military sovereignty — 44.7

Official defense spending is 3.1—3.2% of GDP ($1.4 billion; 2023-2025). The share in the budget is ~10%. There are 19,000 people in total (military personnel — ~8,200, paramilitary formations — ~11,000).

Weapons are regularly upgraded: HIMARS is being introduced (2025, a contract with the United States for $500 million), modern American armored personnel carriers, armored vehicles, artillery, aircraft (F-16, Attack Helicopter AH-1, patrol ships) are being used, and a missile defense and communications system is being developed.

The share of local production is low — 7-15% (repairs, small—scale production and modernization of equipment in cooperation with the USA and the EU), most of the weapons are imported (USA, Britain, France, Turkey).

Bahrain fully controls its sea and air borders, the borders with Saudi Arabia are fortified with infrastructure complexes, and control over the territory is almost complete. The estimated military reserve is up to 3,000 people (National Guard, veterans, auxiliary forces).

The country is closely integrated into allied structures: the US 5th Fleet is based, agreements and joint operations with GCC, UK Maritime Component; decision autonomy is limited by the strategic interests of the allies, military policy is consistent with the United States.

There are repair plants (BDF Workshop), separate projects on armored vehicles, artillery, communications, avionics; there is no full—cycle development, there is no deep localization, the main capacities are in the assembly and upgrade of Western systems. Nuclear weapons are completely absent — 0 warheads, zero reserves.

Bahrain is a party to the NPT and does not conduct nuclear programs. There is no military space program, the national intelligence system is based on cooperation with the United States, Great Britain, and GCC; modern means of communication, tracking, aerial reconnaissance, and maritime patrol are used.

All parameters are reflected in the annual reports of SIPRI, UNODA, the Ministry of Defense, the official portals of state—owned companies (Embraer, IMBEL) and industry databases of UN/NGO - 90% coverage

Final Summary Table

The main conclusions

Strengths. High standard of living and stability: Bahrain is one of the safest and most comfortable countries in the region (16th place on the safety index). The economy is stable, the finance and services sector is actively developing (the financial hub of the region, low taxes for businesses and residents).

Digital infrastructure and e-government: the country is ranked in the top 20 by EGDI, has almost complete Internet coverage and a high level of digitalization of public services and the financial sector.

Cultural heritage and multiculturalism: 3 UNESCO sites, rich history — Dilmun civilization, major national festivals, water heritage. Innovative educational practices: high literacy (98%), large enrollment in higher education (about 72%), developed STEM programs, support for national talents and integrated educational platforms.

Moderate military workload and effective border control: defense spending is about 3.1%, the army is modernly armed, and security is provided in cooperation with the United States and its allies. Focus on diversification and business: success of Bahrain Vision 2030 programs, growth of non-financial exports and investments.

Weaknesses. External and technological dependence: import dependence in IT, high-tech, microelectronics and critical technologies is more than 85%, and the share of domestic arms production is small (<15% and <40%, respectively).

High debt burden: the national debt exceeds 100% of GDP (nominally up to 130%), a significant part of the budget goes to debt servicing. The limited depth and scale of the national market: the population is ~1.5 million, compact domestic demand, the main interest for business is the financial/logistics gateway, and the prospects for large-scale industrialization are limited.

Limited natural and water resources: freshwater is one of the scarcest in the region, more than 80% of food and water are imported, and vulnerability to food security is high.

Partial dependence on military security and sovereignty: the deployment of the US fifth fleet and the bases of the GCC countries, strategic decisions are coordinated with the allies, the historical limited military reserve and the lack of strategic weapons.

Environmental vulnerability: Manama is among the ten most polluted cities on the planet by the end of mid-2025 (severe dust storms, industrial emissions). Social challenges/unevenness: a multicultural society provides strong integration, but gaps remain in access to social benefits for different groups, not all small nations are fully protected, and state control over the media and special services is high.

Overall assessment. Bahrain's cumulative sovereignty Index is 377.8 out of 700 possible points (average 54%), which places the country in the top 100 in the global top. Bahrain has a high standard of living, stability, effective integration into the global economy and an innovative digital sphere, but is limited by its structural vulnerability to external resource and technological challenges, small market depth and dependence on defense and security allies.

The country's sovereignty is stable in cultural, social, administrative and digital aspects, but economic, technological and environmental autonomy remain areas of risk.

The sovereignty profile indicates that Bahrain in 2025 is based on a strong administrative vertical, cultivated cultural identity, digital modernization and high international integration, but limited by technological and resource dependence, small market size and military autonomy.

The country strives to compensate for the limitations with a flexible foreign policy, partnership with leading powers and the development of the innovation sector, maintaining the authority of a modern, open, but pragmatic island state.