Introduction

This report presents a comprehensive analysis of the sovereignty of Belarus using the methodology of the Burke Institute. Sovereignty is assessed in 7 areas: political, economic, technological, informational, cultural, cognitive and military. Each aspect is assessed on the basis of official data from international and national sources (UN, World Bank, UNESCO, IMF, ITU, FAO, SIPRI, PISA, etc.) without using politicized indexes. The maximum score in each direction is 100; the sum (up to 700) is the accumulated Sovereignty Index (Burke Index).

To adapt and adjust statistical parameters, an international expert survey was conducted for each of the seven components using a single questionnaire of 10 questions with a 10-point scale and one open-ended question.

In total, at least 100 experts from 50+ countries were interviewed for each indicator, taking into account geographical representation and specialization. When calculating and analyzing the data, equalizing coefficients were used, bringing all data to a scale of 0-10 points.

The final index value is the arithmetic mean between statistical data and expert estimates.

Below is an analysis in each area, a final summary table and the main conclusions about the peculiarities of the sovereignty of Belarus.

Political sovereignty — 52.6

Belarus officially hosts Russian military facilities, including radar stations in Baranovichi and Vileyka, air defense groups and divisions in Zyabrivka and Mozyr, as well as tactical nuclear weapons storage facilities. The presence of direct foreign military bases (Russia) has a strategic impact and provokes protests from civil society.

Belarus formally recognizes the supremacy of international law and the priority of the principles of international agreements (Article 8 of the Constitution), but in practice certain national laws, including repressive measures, contradict UN conventions and obligations under the WFP, and violate the rights of citizens during protests and actions against the opposition.

The country maintains stability solely through rigid vertical lines and repression. Since 2020, persecution has increased dramatically, the "people's militia" has been introduced, political opponents have been repressed or in exile, public support for the regime has fallen sharply, and management is carried out through the security forces and special services.

The Government Efficiency Index (WGI) is -0.56 (2023), which is lower than the global average; the power structure is extremely centralized, and there are significant problems with transparency and quality of public administration. The UN EGDI-2022 is 0.804, the average level among post-Soviet countries.

Public services and the gov portal.by is actively developing, and some services are available online, but digitalization remains limited by political and technical barriers. Internal support and trust in the leadership are formally high according to government polls, but independent sources and international organizations record a steady crisis of trust and legitimacy, especially after the 2020 elections and waves of protests.

Belarus actively delegates sovereignty to Russia (the Union State), the CSTO, and the EAEU, and includes Russian military and economic mechanisms in national policy. Participation in international agreements, but decisions are made taking into account the policy of the Russian Federation.

The country has signed and recognized a number of UN conventions, but it distances itself from the European Court of Human Rights (EU is not a member), the ICC and most EU institutions; actual cooperation on the protection of rights is limited. Belarus is a tightly centralized state (constitutional norm, presidential vertical system): All key decisions are made in the center, and regional and local self-government is limited.

Transparency is close to zero: The KGB of Belarus and other services carry out operational, judicial and political pressure, there is no parliamentary control, civilian supervision is impossible, and the level of repression is one of the highest in Europe.

Data completeness assessment: the main indicators are available from international sources, the coverage is 98%.

Economic sovereignty — 58.1

US$ 29,037-32,098 at purchasing power parity (PPP) in 2024 is higher than the global average, according to the latest estimates from Trading Economics, Wikipedia and the World Bank. 12.41 billion US dollars is a historical record for September 2025; foreign exchange reserves: $5.07 billion, gold — $5.94 billion (data from the National Bank).

The national debt is 40.7–41.3% of GDP (2022-2025), the average for the CIS and Europe. In recent years, the debt has been stable, but higher than that of a number of neighboring countries. Belarus provides itself with basic foodstuffs: meat, dairy products, grains, vegetables, the level of food security is high, and the infrastructure is maintained at the state level.

The country is building a Belarusian nuclear power plant and modernizing thermal power plants, but it is dependent on Russian imports of gas and oil. The share of own generation is growing, electricity is supplied to the domestic market with high reliability, and import dependence remains on petroleum products.

There are significant reserves of potash salts (Belarus ranks 2nd in the world), peat, iron, gypsum, coal, as well as the processing industry in agriculture (sugar, meat, milk). Belarus has some of the best freshwater reserves in Eastern Europe: large reservoirs, rivers, and lakes. Problems with access to clean water are not fixed.

The national processing center (Belkart, BELARUSBANK system, National Bank) is functioning, digital payments and bank cards are widely used by the population. About 98-99% of internal settlements are in Belarusian rubles (BYN); external contracts are mainly in dollars, euros and Russian rubles.

The National Bank of the Republic of Belarus issues BYN, controls credit, currency and monetary policy; rates and strategic decisions are determined at the national level.

Data completeness assessment: the main macroeconomic indicators are available from official sources (World Bank, IMF), coverage is 90%

Technological sovereignty — 51.2

0.58% of GDP is spending on R&D in 2023, above the global average, but below the European leaders; the annual average is about 0.65%. Belarus is implementing large-scale import substitution programs in industry and the high-tech sector, especially in cooperation with Russia: 27 joint projects have been agreed, IT, chemical industry, mechanical engineering, digital communications, petrochemicals and woodworking are being modernized.

The coverage of higher education (gross tertiary enrollment ratio) is 67.1% (2023), which is significantly higher than the global average standard value. The Internet penetration rate is 82-85% of the population; mobile and fiber—optic networks are developed, and coverage is one of the largest in Eastern Europe (source: government reports and external ICT reviews).

There are national digital platforms — the portal of Public Services (portal.gov.by), electronic medical records, banking applications, government services for business, ID cards, etc.. Import dependence remains in microelectronics, components, and equipment for complex high-tech industries; the Belarusian IT sector is competitive, but depends on the EU, China, and Russia in a number of areas (chips, equipment).

More than 350 types of public services are available online (electronic certificates, business registration, passport services, taxes, etc.), the level of digitalization is average in the region and is growing annually.

The country has developed departments, centers, and laboratories for biotechnologies, supports agribiotech areas, pharmaceuticals, and microorganisms, but remains highly dependent on imports for equipment and techniques. There are projects for industry (robotization of production, local robots in agriculture and logistics), but mass autonomy in robotics has not been achieved; for key components, import or joint development with Russia.

There is no in-house production of modern chips, most of the components are imported; initiatives to launch contract technology parks and R&D, but so far everything depends on Russian and Chinese supplies.

Data completeness assessment: key indicators are obtained from WIPO, ITU, UNESCO, which provides 93% coverage.

Information sovereignty — 59.7

The National Cyber Incident Response CERT Center (CIRT BY) operates in Belarus, which coordinates cybersecurity at the state level; the state participates in training programs and the development of ITU standards. The national Internet Exchange Point — BY-IX, managed by NTEC, operates in Minsk and major cities.

It is an independent exchange hub connected to about 50 major providers in the country, providing local quality and minimal latency, as well as a significant reduction in traffic exchange costs. The main media outlets broadcast in Russian and Belarusian: Belteleradiocompany, Zvyazda, Belorus Segodnya, radio stations and many independent networks, but the share of Belarusian-language content is gradually decreasing, most of the independent publications have emigrated.

All global platforms (Google, Facebook, Youtube) are operating in the country, but a stable media platform sector is being formed at the national level, and its own software and services are developing. Nevertheless, the government imposes restrictions on the activity of opposition and foreign resources.

About 60-65% of the media content is of national production: These are television, radio, newspapers, online resources, and government news agencies. Some of the media content is of foreign or translated origin, especially on the Internet. Belarus has a well-developed IT sector (Hi-Tech Park, EPAM, Itransition), produces banking, medical, logistics and industrial solutions, and has national cloud solutions.

More than 82-85% of the population use digital services: electronic government services, banking applications, educational platforms, mobile services for payment and identification. There are national data centers, cloud storage systems for banks, corporations, government agencies and large businesses, and proprietary platforms (including Belcard services and public services). The main mobile operators — MTS, A1, life:) — are localized, the infrastructure belongs to national and joint ventures, the network is controlled by national legislation; operators occupy leading positions in the region.

The Law on Personal Data Protection (2021) is in force, regulating the storage, processing and transfer of data within the country. The regulator has an Operational and analytical Center, annual reports, a high level of control, but limited independent expertise.

Data completeness assessment: infrastructure indicators are available from ITU, CIRA, OECD and specialized sources, coverage is 94%.

Cultural sovereignty — 76.1

There are 4 UNESCO World Heritage Sites in Belarus:

• Radziwills Architectural and Residential Complex in Nesvizh,

• Mir Castle,

• The Struve Arc (transnational facility),

• Belovezhskaya Pushcha (together with Poland, natural). Belarus' contribution to world culture is the creative legacy of Marc Chagall, Francysk Skaryna (the first Slavic printed Bible), contributions to literature (Adam Mickiewicz), science (Isaac Asimov, Nobel laureates), the creation of the MGM Hollywood studio (Louis Baruch Mayer), architecture, folk music, artists, writers and artists.

He awards the presidential prize "For Spiritual Rebirth" and special prizes to cultural and artistic figures, as well as awards for their contribution to the preservation of memory, education of youth, the development of theatrical, musical art and folk art. Belarusian identity consists of folk festivals (Kupala, Dozhinki), language, embroidery, kobzari and folk dances, Orthodox/Catholic holidays, literary and musical traditions, and a close connection with rural and natural lifestyles.

Belarus officially supports the rights of ethnic minorities: Poles, Russians, Jews, Ukrainians, and Lithuanians; there are national schools, mass media, cultural centers, and ethno-cultural development events. The register includes 5,583 objects of cultural heritage — monuments of architecture, archeology, urban art, museum and sacred complexes protected by the state.

The country participates in UNESCO projects, implements exhibitions, international festivals, folk art laboratories, book fairs, concerts; there are recognized exhibitions of Belarusian artists in Paris, the Vatican, the United Nations.

Brands ("Belarusian Embroidery", "Nesvizh and Mir Castles"), regional ceramics, handicrafts, and national products are actively protected; brand control and promotion is carried out at the national and international levels.

The cuisine includes traditional dishes (draniki, borscht, machanka, bread, kvass), meat, grains, vegetables, fermented dairy products, alcoholic beverages; there is a variety of Polish, Jewish, Russian, Lithuanian, and Ukrainian cuisines.

According to government agencies, up to 85-90% of the population is involved in cultural life: they visit theaters, museums, participate in festivals, mass celebrations, creative projects, clubs, local and national initiatives.

Data completeness assessment: basic indicators are available in UNESCO and national statistics, coverage is 97%.

Cognitive sovereignty — 66

The HDI of Belarus in 2023 is 0.824 (65th in the world), high in education and healthcare, average in income. 4.95% of GDP in 2023 will be spent on education (about 12.81% of the total state budget). Literacy is 99.7–100% (data for 2019-2024), one of the best indicators in Europe.

In recent years, Belarus has been involved in the development of national standards and the testing of individual PISA tests, but there is no full integration format; internal exams are rated as above the CIS average (there are no official international data).

STEM fields cover up to 35% of all university graduates (engineering, natural sciences and technical specialties), the official priority for technical personnel is constantly confirmed by the Ministry of Education. The share of foreign programs is up to 8-10%: there are joint master's degree programs and exchanges with Russia, China, Poland, Germany, and the EU (Erasmus, DAAD), but the bulk of education is in the national format.

Belarusian and Russian languages are equally supported; minorities (Poles, Jews, Tatars, Ukrainians) have access to national schools, cultural programs, and media in their language. There are more than 40 scientific government centers and institutes in the country — the Academy of Sciences, universities, research institutes in physics, mathematics, biotechnology, IT, and applied chemistry.

National educational platforms cover over 80% of government institutions; distance learning is conducted on the basis of state universities, regional Internet resources and digital services. A wide system of government grants, awards, nominal scholarships, startup incubators, 10,000+ scholarships and grants are awarded annually to students, young teachers and researchers.

Data completeness assessment: education indicators are available in the UNDP, UNESCO, OECD, coverage is 87%.

Military sovereignty — 56.3

Belarus' military spending in 2023 is 1.8% of GDP (World Bank, Statista). In absolute terms, it is about $1.4 billion. The official strength is 158,000 people (for 2020-2024), including the regular army, special forces and those who can be mobilized in case of war. The regular army consists of about 48,000 people, the border troops — 12,000; reserves — up to 1.5 million people.

Active modernization is underway: new air defense systems (S-400, Iskander-M — Russian supplies), Su-25 upgrades for nuclear carriers, the development of its own Polonaise (300 km), drones, optoelectronics.

About 60-65% of weapons are of national production (small arms, optical equipment, some armored vehicles, UAVs), high—tech systems are purchased from Russia and China, and are produced jointly by BelOMO, MZTK, and Minsk Automation Plant plants.

Control is tightly integrated, implemented by the army, the border guard service, and territorial troops, joint exercises with Russia are actively used, and the borders are reinforced with engineering structures.

The reserve has up to 1.5 million people (according to the State Security Service — conscription, defense, mobilization). The real autonomy of military decisions is limited: Belarus is a member of the CSTO and the Union State, decisions are coordinated with Russia, and the presence of Russian forces in the country has increased strategic dependence.

The military industry is developed and expanding — the production of UAVs, components for air defense, armored vehicles, optics, Polonaise missiles, joint projects with Russia and China, significant investments and modernization of the defense sector.

Belarus does not possess its own nuclear warheads, but Russian nuclear forces and tactical weapons are officially stationed on the territory (the exact number has not been disclosed, the estimate is several dozen). There is no military space of its own, there is a joint use of Russian satellites and infrastructure; the national intelligence system (military intelligence service, digital intelligence, cyber intelligence) is integrated with allied structures.

All parameters are reflected in the annual reports of SIPRI, UNODA, the Ministry of Defense, the official portals of state—owned companies (Embraer, IMBEL) and the UN/NGO industry databases - 89% coverage.

Final Summary Table

The main conclusions

Strengths. Economic sustainability: GDP per capita by PPP ($29-32 thousand), GDP growth is projected to reach 4% in 2025, inflation is under control, record gold and foreign exchange reserves ($12.4 billion), the state program for the development of industry and technology.

High level of literacy and education: 99.7–100% of literate adults, high enrollment in higher education (67%), strong STEM staff and a large-scale educational program system, talent support, developed national platforms.

Import substitution and industrial cooperation with Russia and China: most modern IT products, automation, and biotech processes are produced or upgraded locally; exports of machinery and food are increasing. High level of food and water security: the country fully provides itself with basic products, has significant freshwater resources, and developed agriculture.

A well-developed national military industry and reserve: own weapons production, modernization of the army, a large reserve (up to 1.5 million people); border and defense infrastructure. Development of digital and Internet services: 82-85% of the population is covered by the Internet and digital services, national IT products, cloud platforms, banking and mobile infrastructure are operating.

Weaknesses: High political and military dependence on Russia: deployment of Russian military facilities and nuclear weapons, strategic integration, limited autonomy in defense decision-making. A centralized political system and weak democratic institutions: extreme concentration of power, low transparency of the special services (KGB), lack of real parliamentary control, and repression against the opposition.

Import dependence on high-tech, microelectronics and biotech: A significant part of the complex components, medical and industrial equipment is supplied from Russia, China or the EU, and there is no in-house production of chips and modern biotechnologies. Limited access to international judicial institutions and human rights mechanisms: distancing oneself from the European Court of Justice and other transnational structures.

High government debt: 41% of GDP — requires constant monitoring and work to reduce budget risks. Restriction of independent media and freedom of speech: suppression of opposition channels, "leakage" of independent media abroad. Low transparency of public administration: the Government Effectiveness rating is below average, significant problems with the quality of public administration and long—term strategy.

Overall assessment. The cumulative index of sovereignty of Belarus is 420 out of 700 possible points (average — 60%), which places the country in the top 100 in the world top. Belarus has strong positions in the real sector, the educational system, digital technologies, domestic food and water security, and is actively implementing import substitution and industrial cooperation programs.

The main risks are dependence on Russia's foreign policy, weak democratic institutions and civil liberties, technological and judicial import dependence, limited transparency of governance, and high vulnerability to external sanctions.

This creates a relatively stable but adaptable profile of sovereignty — a country can respond quickly to challenges, but maintaining long-term independence is limited by a narrow foreign policy "arc". The sovereignty profile indicates that Belarus is a country with pronounced political, economic and technological sovereignty, building internal autonomy based on stable institutions, advanced industry and active digitalization.

The key challenges are limited political competition, dependence on Russia in the military and foreign policy spheres, import dependence on technology and equipment, weak democratic processes and transparency of decision—making. The country is working to strengthen its sectoral, technological and digital sovereignty, and is actively implementing new national concepts until 2030.