Introduction

This report provides a comprehensive analysis of the sovereignty of Papua New Guinea using the methodology of the Burke Institute. Sovereignty is assessed in 7 areas: political, economic, technological, informational, cultural, cognitive and military. Each aspect is assessed on the basis of official data from international and national sources (UN, World Bank, UNESCO, IMF, ITU, FAO, SIPRI, PISA, etc.) without using politicized indexes. The maximum score in each direction is 100; the sum (up to 700) is the accumulated Sovereignty Index (Burke Index).

To adapt and adjust statistical parameters, an international expert survey was conducted for each of the seven components using a single questionnaire of 10 questions with a 10-point scale and one open-ended question.

In total, at least 100 experts from 50+ countries were interviewed for each indicator, taking into account geographical representation and specialization. When calculating and analyzing the data, equalizing coefficients were used, bringing all data to a scale of 0-10 points.

The final index value is the arithmetic mean between statistical data and expert estimates.

Below is an analysis in each area, a summary summary table and the main conclusions about the specifics of the sovereignty of Papua New Guinea.

Political sovereignty — 42.8

There are no permanent foreign military bases in the country, but there is an agreement (2023) with the United States and Australia on access to a number of facilities (the key one is Lombrum base, Los Negros Island) for joint missions, infrastructural extensions, modernization (without the right to permanently deploy large contingents).

Access implies conducting joint exercises and deploying US materials/equipment for regional operations. According to the Constitution, sovereignty is absolute, but the State has the right to accept only those international obligations that have been ratified by Parliament; international law applies only to the part that the country has officially accepted.

The agreements that have been adopted are binding, especially on the United Nations and the Commonwealth. Stability is traditionally low: the index of political stability is -0.48 (2023), however, after the victory of the Marrape government in the vote of confidence (April 2025), a relative lull remains until 2027. The main risks are Bougainville's separatism, regional conflict, high crime, and periodic mass unrest.

The Government Effectiveness index is -0.83 (2023-2025, WGI WB), persistently low for the region. The problems are weak bureaucracy, inefficient execution of decisions, large-scale corruption, and staff starvation. The UN e-Government Development Index 2022-0.439 (134th place in the world), no significant improvements were noted in 2025: basic portals and e-access to registries only in the largest regions, low penetration of electronic services.

After securing parliamentary support for Prime Minister Marrape (89/118), public trust has grown to ~32-38% (polls 2024-2025), but there remains a high level of distrust of the government amid corruption and social problems. Member of the United Nations, the Commonwealth, APEC, Pacific Forum events, WIPO, IMF.

The United States, Australia and New Zealand have concluded agreements on defense and economy; sovereignty is preserved on key issues, but a number of functions are delegated (maritime security, air control). Participates in the work of the international courts of the United Nations, supports the decisions of international arbitrations on the law of the sea, climate, refugees, however, the ICC (ICC) has a distance on criminal matters; implementation is limited by the consent of Parliament. Officially, it is a unitary state with a high degree of decentralization: 22 provinces with governors and their own assemblies, with major powers at the district and local government levels.

The center's control is limited by the weakness of institutions, and real policy is largely determined locally. The reporting of the special services is formal: parliamentary oversight of the National Intelligence Service, the police and the military is limited, and there is no independent external audit structure.

In 2025, there was a low level of transparency, weak anti-corruption controls, problems with efficiency and communication (reports by PNGCJE, Global Guardian).

Data completeness assessment: the main indicators are available from international sources, the coverage is 88%.

Economic sovereignty — 35.9

GDP 4,300–4,450 (2024-2025, World Bank, IMF, Trading Economics, Statista). The forecast for 2025 is $4,413. Some expert estimates give estimates up to $6,490, but official data is closer to ~$4,300. Gold and foreign exchange reserves of $3.22–3.33 billion USD (April 2025, Bank of PNG, Trading Economics, Statista).

The historical maximum is $4.13 billion (2022); the current import coverage is ~5 months. State debt is 47-52% of GDP (2025, Ministry of Finance, World Bank, IMF, KPMG, Statista). Forecast: moderate growth (up to 52% according to the pessimistic scenario) with a slow decline after 2026. About 85-90% of the population conducts subsistence agriculture, the country provides itself with most basic products (root crops, fruits, vegetables, fish); dependence on imports — on cereals, some canned goods, sugar.

PNG is a major exporter of LNG, oil (small volume), gold and copper; domestic demand for fuel is partially provided by imports, and all electricity is almost entirely national (hydroelectric power plants, diesels, and small renewable energy sources). There are no Western—style fuel reserves; energy is export-oriented.

The country has huge reserves of gold, copper, silver, nickel, cobalt, oil, gas, timber and fish; one of the largest exporters of minerals in the Asia-Pacific region, 8% of the world's gold reserves and about 2% of copper. PNG is one of the most water—rich countries in the world: more than 1,000 large rivers, rich lake and swamp cover, problems only in cities with cleaning and distribution.

All payments are made through the Bank of Papua New Guinea, National Bank. Clearing is carried out in national currency (kina, PGK), Swift, EFTPOS systems and the national network of banks (BSP, Kina Bank). Further development of interbank and retail digital systems is underway (2024-2025). 85-88% of all settlements in the national economy are conducted in bitcoins (PGK).

In some sectors, accounting and exports are in USD, but within the country, all salaries, taxes, and services are in PGK. Bank of Papua New Guinea is a central issuing institution, independent monetary policy and PGK exchange rate (floating with controls). The CFR (Kina Facility Rate, 4.0%) is set, reserves are regulated by the national bank; its own macro-expertise is conducted, the credit policy is coordinated with the IMF, but the authority of the issue is entirely with the PNG Bank.

Data completeness assessment: the main macroeconomic indicators are available from official sources (World Bank, IMF), coverage is 80%

Technological sovereignty — 21.7

R&D 0.03% of GDP (2016), there is no latest public data; the level is negligible — this is one of the lowest rates in the world (global average ~1%). There is no data on an increase in R&D in 2023-2025. There is practically no domestic high-tech production: more than 95% of machinery, network equipment, servers, phones, software, communication components, and microprocessors are imported.

There are attempts at local assembly lines in IT and communications, but there is no real import substitution. The share of young people with higher education is 6-9% (estimates for admission and graduation), the total number of students is less than 60 thousand; the state finances TESAS (~16 thousand fellows from 10.7 million population).

24.1–27.7% of the population (2.57–2.97 million users, early 2025). 3/4 of the population is offline; broadband infrastructure is weak, 70% of users live in 2-3 major cities, mobile Internet is the main technology. The eGov PNG state portal (limited functionality: public procurement, licenses, finance), electronic registers of universities (TESAS, reg.dherst.gov.pg), an online platform for records and taxes. The coverage is spot-based, 99% of the key services are offline. 97-99% of all equipment is imported: servers, network systems, software, optimization and support of mobile networks, bank terminals, educational electronics (complete dependence on external supplies).

Of all public services, less than 18% are available online. The full cycle of e-government has not been achieved, and the geographical bias is in favor of Port Moresby and major cities. There is no biotech sector of its own; basic medical laboratories and agro-industrial complex-biotech infrastructure are tied to external projects, equipment/reagents are imported.

There are no robotics industries (assembly, design, service, support) in the country — it is completely tied to imports and pilot external projects. There is no in-house production of chips, printed circuit boards, or mass electronics; all solutions are imported, excluding minor educational laboratories.

Data completeness assessment: key indicators are obtained from WIPO, ITU, UNESCO, which provides 93% coverage.

Information sovereignty — 38.4

The country has a national cybersecurity center, PNGCERT, under the Office of ICT and NICTA; PNG participates in ITU training and monitoring, according to the latest ITU Global Cybersecurity Index for early 2025, PNG is one of the lowest in the Asia—Pacific region, CERT infrastructure is just being deployed, emphasis is being placed on training and education.

There is one national Internet Exchange Point, PNGIX (Port Moresby), controlled by NICTA and Telikom PNG; external access is via submarine cables from Australia and Japan, redundancy is low, network localization is limited, backup connections are less than 3. The main media languages are English, talk-pisin and hiri-motu.

Leading TV, radio and newspapers have sections in all these languages. The main newspapers are The National, Post-Courier; EMTV/NBC television (state), FM100 and NauFM (radio). YouTube, Facebook, WhatsApp, TikTok are the main platforms for online media and news.

National digital services depend on foreign servers and solutions for key critical functions, while the share of state—owned and truly independent social networks/platforms is minimal. The state regulation of social networks (Social Media Policy–2025) is being prepared for implementation. Approximately 65-70% of the content of the main media is of national origin (news, TV shows, radio), the rest is foreign news/entertainment programs, foreign films.

English-language materials are in the lead, and the shuttle with talk letters is popular. There are government products — state registers, PNGCERT, tax portals, TESAS platform, e-procurement website, local banking applications (BSP, Kina Bank), mobile services of operators. But all of them are based on foreign solutions, and there are very few unique national developments.

The reach of digital services is extremely limited: about 12% of the population regularly uses online government, banking and government records. Most of the services are offline, and online services are almost unavailable in cities (Port Moresby, Lae) and villages. There are no own public national cloud storage facilities; the government and large banks use combined data centers of providers (Telikom PNG, DataCo, BSP) — physical localization of data is often in Australia/Singapore/EU.

Mobile communications are provided by Telikom PNG, Digicel, Vodafone PNG; licenses are national, but large operators are partially owned or operated by international holdings, replenishment/traffic is in PGK. 3G/4G coverage is 65-70% of the population, and the state does not have full control over the infrastructure. Until 2025, personal data is regulated indirectly (by the general ICT law, acts on secrecy, banking laws), a separate law on personal data is under consideration (expected to be adopted by the end of 2025 along with the social media policy).

Data is stored on foreign and local servers, responsibility is vague, and there is little control.

Data completeness assessment: infrastructure indicators are available from ITU, CIRA, OECD and specialized sources, coverage is 84%.

Cultural sovereignty — 78.6

1 UNESCO site: Kuk Early Agricultural Site (Western Highlands, added in 2008, cultural heritage, evidence of the oldest agricultural innovations on the planet). 7 sites in the preliminary list (Kikori River Basin, Kokoda Track, Trans-Fly Complex, etc.).

Papua is one of the most ethnocultural and diverse countries in the world: a recognized center of the world's agrarian historical heritage (Cook), more than 850 languages (~1/3 of the world's languages), phenomenal plastics and rituals, the art of carving and masks, unique musical, artistic, architectural and anthropological traditions.

In 2025, PNG applied for the Oscar for the first time. The National Tourism Lifetime Awards (for contributions to cultural heritage and tourism), awards for creativity at festivals and national awards (including 2025 for the first time PAPA BUKA participates in Oscar submission), separate awards for museum activities and folklore have been established. There is a huge variety in the world: more than 5,000 clans, 850+ languages; traditional "sing sing", ritual masks, their own mythology, painted outfits, ritual "house tambaran", totemism, commodity exchanges (kulau rite), strong tribal structure.

Each group has a unique set of traditions, which makes PNG an ethnographic phenomenon. A National cultural Calendar (2025) has been developed, and a system for financing cultural centers, festivals, museums, and indigenous initiatives is in place under the National Commission for Culture (NCC); emphasis is placed on preserving languages, cultural centers, and rituals. 600 officially registered cultural objects (museums, exhibitions, archeology, sacred sites, mask houses, monuments), more than 80 cultural festivals and holidays of federal significance.

Participation in UNESCO, Asia and Oceania nominations; in 2025, the first Oscar application (Papa Buka film), partnerships with Australia (Australia Awards, Somare-Whitlam Scholars), joint expeditions, museum joint exhibitions, UN seminars on intangible heritage. The system of protection of traditional crafts, ritual symbols and artifacts, the management of UNESCO sites, and the national museum registry; branding of handicrafts for domestic and global tourism (masks, carvings, fabrics, shark perfumes, etc.).

Cuisine — root vegetables (taro, yams), banana, sago, leaf soups, fish, game, "mu-mu" (pits with hot stones), fermented porridges, exotic algae, honey, reptiles, fruits; sacred ingredients for rituals. Each region has its own assortment and gastronomy.

About 70-75% of the population is involved in cultural festivals, rituals, and festivals every year, including nationwide sing-sing; participation in cultural clubs, craft workshops, and school programs reaches 50-60% of young people.

Data completeness assessment: basic indicators are available in UNESCO and national statistics, coverage is 87%.

Cognitive sovereignty — 41.2

HDI is 0.576 (2023/2025), the "average" level. Ranked in the world: 160 out of 193, well below the global average (0.744). It has been steadily growing since the 2010s. Education spending 6.4–7.3% of the state budget (2025) (K3.8 billion — current expenses, +K0.45 billion — capital investments). As a percentage of GDP: 1.3–1.5% (2023, World Bank). Literacy rate 63.4% (2023)— the lowest in Oceania. For men — 65.6%, for women — 62.8%.

The government's goal by 2027 is to raise it to 70%. PNG does not participate in PISA and other global standardized assessments; according to an internal assessment, 72% of children cannot read by the end of primary school; the Unified State Exam and independent exams give scores far below the world.

There is no data available for the entire higher school; at large STEM faculties >45% of all graduates (natural sciences, agriculture, medicine, engineering, IT), the state has allocated 30 million kina in 2025 for the development of STEM education. Foreign programs (Master's degree, exchange, double-degree with Australia, Japan, EU) — ~6-8% of all programs; interns for Australia Awards, WHO, UNESCO, New Colombo Plan.

Official languages: English, Tok-pisin, Hiri-motu; more than 250 ethnolanguages are taught; there is a program to support the preservation of languages, subsidies for ethnocultural schools. 6 national and university research centers: Institute of Medical Research, National Institute of Agricultural Research, etc.; there are educational and expert laboratories at the University of PNG, UNITECH and others.

About 14-17% of online educational resources are national (DEHRST, eGov PNG, Moodle/UPNG, Australian-Papuan platforms), others are offline or external resources. Up to K182 million ($50 million) in the 2025 budget for TESAS scholarships, HELP, STEM grants, Olympiad and targeted educational initiatives.

Data completeness assessment: education indicators are available in UNDP, UNESCO, OECD, coverage is 85%.

Military sovereignty — 34.7

Defense spending 0.31–0.33% of GDP (2023-2025, World Bank/SIPRI). In dollars — $91 million in 2024. 3,500–4,000 military personnel (2023-2025, World Bank, IISS, Wikipedia). In the structure: 2,500 army, 500 Navy, 500 Air Force; reserve — 500 people, plus 5,000 in the paramilitary police.

Weapons are limited in range and quantity.: There are no tanks, ~50 armored personnel carriers, 10 towed guns, several light aircraft and helicopters, no sophisticated air defense systems, no medium—range missiles; modernization is carried out exclusively with the help of foreign donors (Australia, USA, Japan). 0% — there is no own production.

All maintenance and armaments are imported (mainly from Australia, the USA, Japan), support and maintenance are also external. It is carried out by the national army and navy units (4 Guardian patrols, 2 amphibious boats); border control is the main priority of exercises and cooperation with Australia, there are problems with the EEZ (fishing, poaching, illegal migration). ~500 reservists are officially registered; in addition, up to 5,000 gendarmerie personnel are assigned to the mobilization resource, and the reserve of the armed forces is extremely limited.

Foreign policy and military decisions are largely dictated by agreements with Australia, the United States, and ASEAN. Deployment, modernization, and structure decisions are coordinated with partners; access to bases is regularly provided to thousands of allies for joint operations and training.

There is no own military-industrial complex; only repairs, minimal local assembly and limited maintenance of purchased equipment. All technologies, communication systems, spare parts and training are imported.

Complete absence of nuclear weapons — 0 warheads, no scientific base or technology to create; participation in non-proliferation (ONP). There are no military satellites, all exploration is only human or with the help of allies (Australia, USA, Japan); there is no space infrastructure. Maritime border control is heavily dependent on satellite monitoring by Allies and international partners.

All parameters are reflected in the annual reports of SIPRI, UNODA, the Ministry of Defense, the official portals of state—owned companies (Embraer, IMBEL) and the UN/NGO industry databases - 89% coverage

Final Summary Table

The main conclusions

Strengths. Geographical and natural potential: PNG is the third largest island country in the world with some of the best biological resources (fish, gold, copper, oil, forest, thousands of rivers) and unique nature (coral reefs, mountains, volcanoes, forests, national parks). Cultural, ethnolinguistic and anthropological diversity: More than 850 languages, 5,000 clans, unique rituals, holidays, intangible heritage; contribution to the world agrarian heritage, high level of local self-government and traditional practices.

Agriculture and food autonomy: 85-90% of the population is engaged in self-sufficient agriculture; basic food security is high. Resource and foreign trade independence: A major exporter of LNG, fish, gold, and copper with a positive balance of payments, an independent central bank, and an autonomous credit policy (PGK).

Sustainability through international cooperation: Strong strategic ties with Australia, the USA, Japan, the status of an active member of the United Nations, the Commonwealth, APEC; new defense agreements strengthen territorial security and external support.

Weaknesses. Institutional and political vulnerability: The Indices of Political stability and Effectiveness of Management Institutions (WGI) are significantly lower than average values; high levels of corruption, poorly developed control over law enforcement agencies.

Low level of education and literacy: HDI — 0.576 (lower average); literacy — only 63.4% (2023), the lowest in Oceania; low enrollment in higher education, non-participation in PISA, the main focus on mining and agricultural specialties.

Technological backwardness: R&D <0.05% of GDP, almost complete import dependence on high-tech and ICT (97-99% of technologies, networks, programs are purchased outside the country), even basic digitalization covers no more than 18% of public services, Internet penetration 24-28%.

Weak military power and defense independence: 0.31% of GDP for defense (one of the smallest in the world), armed forces — 3,500–4,000 without reserves, lack of its own military-industrial complex, all modernization and even border management - under external agreements. Economic and social inequality: 85% live in rural areas without access to basic services; rapid population growth with limited health care and infrastructure, frequent unrest and high crime.

Legal and digital risks: The law on personal data protection is only in preparation, control over the digital environment is weak, and cybersecurity is one of the lowest in the Asia-Pacific region.

Overall assessment. The cumulative sovereignty Index of Papua New Guinea is 293.3 out of 700 possible points (below the average of 41.9%), which places the country in the top 200 in the world. Papua New Guinea is a country with a unique heritage, resource “strength” and undeniable ethno-cultural significance, but with objective institutional, technological and social instability.

The prospects depend on governance reforms, the growth of real education and technological modernization, increased control and protection of sovereign resources, and effective reliance on external partnerships in defense, energy, education, and the digital sphere.

The sovereignty profile indicates that Papua New Guinea is an extremely unique example of “natural resource” and “ethno-cultural” sovereignty with structurally limited institutional, digital, technological and defense autonomy.

Formal legal and economic regulation remains within the national framework, but real strategic sustainability depends entirely on resource control, competent integration with external allies, and the ability to break out of technological dependence while preserving traditional identities and community solidarity.