Introduction

This report provides a comprehensive analysis of Nigeria's sovereignty using the methodology of the Burke Institute. Sovereignty is assessed in 7 areas: political, economic, technological, informational, cultural, cognitive and military. Each aspect is assessed on the basis of official data from international and national sources (UN, World Bank, UNESCO, IMF, ITU, FAO, SIPRI, PISA, etc.) without using politicized indexes. The maximum score in each direction is 100; the sum (up to 700) is the accumulated Sovereignty Index (Burke Index).

To adapt and adjust statistical parameters, an international expert survey was conducted for each of the seven components using a single questionnaire of 10 questions with a 10-point scale and one open-ended question.

In total, at least 100 experts from 50+ countries were interviewed for each indicator, taking into account geographical representation and specialization. When calculating and analyzing the data, equalizing coefficients were used, bringing all data to a scale of 0-10 points.

The final index value is the arithmetic mean between statistical data and expert estimates.

Below is an analysis in each area, a summary table and the main conclusions about the peculiarities of Nigeria's sovereignty.

Political sovereignty — 46.3

Nigeria is one of Africa's most integrated players: a member of the United Nations, the African Union, ECOWAS, OPEC, the World Bank, the IMF, the British Commonwealth, the International Criminal Court, the G77, and recently joined BRICS as a partner. Limitation of national legislation/supremacy of national rights: The Constitution establishes the supremacy of national legislation, but many international treaties and norms are implemented through ratification.

International law is valid only after approval by Parliament; the Constitution and laws always prevail in case of conflict (doctrine of dualism). Internal political stability: The situation is contradictory: relative stability of institutions, but internal political and regional tensions persist (Boko Haram, conflict in Miami, separatism, economic inequality). The government is facing protests, but there have been no disruptions to national governance.

Government Effectiveness (WGI): The management efficiency index is 20.3 percentile (2023), which is lower than the global average and most of the largest economies in the region; problems in policy implementation, corruption and administrative efficiency are noted.

Electronic Government (EGDI): The UN E-Government Development Index in 2024 is 0.482 (MEGDI), ranked 144th in the world. There is significant growth in digital public services, but the figures are below the global average.

Support/trust in the national leader: As of May 2025, approval of President Bol Tinubu's work is 38%. This is a slight increase compared to previous months (April 2025 — 36%). Foreign military bases in the country: Officially, there are no foreign military bases. Attempts to deploy bases in the United States or France after the withdrawal from Niger and Mali caused sharp public and official rejection, the government repeatedly denied the possibility of deploying foreign military facilities.

Participation/distancing from transnational courts: Nigeria recognizes the jurisdiction of the International Criminal Court (ICC), actively participates in the ECOWAS Court and the International Court of Justice. The country complies with international decisions, but certain issues remain unresolved ("selective compliance" in some complex cases).

Centralization/decentralization of power: The form of government is a federation (36 states, Federal Capital District).

There is a clear political and administrative decentralization: budgets, laws, education, courts at the state level. However, the center retains a high role in key issues of governance, security and macroeconomics. Transparency and control of intelligence services: institutionally, the intelligence community does not have broad transparency; there is a parliamentary committee, but weak control.

The operations of the security services (DSS, NIA, military intelligence) are often outside transparent public oversight, and there are cases of abuse.

Data completeness assessment: the main indicators are available from international sources, the coverage is 92%.

Economic sovereignty — 41.8

GDP per capita (PPP): $5,665-$6,440 (2024, World Bank/Trading Economics). The latest estimates are $5,665 by Trading Economics and $6,440 by World Bank. The growth rate is below the global average, but the indicators for the region are high. Sovereign gold and foreign exchange reserves: Total reserves (including gold) — $38.6 billion according to the World Bank at the end of 2024.

The gold reserve is 1.6 billion dollars (equivalent); reserves are small relative to the size of the economy and import risks. Government debt (% of GDP): 52.9–53.8% as of September 2024 (official statistics, CEIC/Trading Economics); government debt includes internal and external borrowings, increases due to financing budget deficits.

Food security: According to the FAO and the UN Humanitarian Plan: in June-August 2025, 30.6 million inhabitants (out of 220 million) are in an acute situation of food insecurity; the risk zones are the northeast and northwest. Reasons: armed conflicts, climate, inflation. There are no hunger crises (phase 5).

Energy independence: Africa's largest oil and gas producer, but with outdated electricity supply, much of the electricity is imported or generated by expensive fuels. There is an Energy Transition Plan strategy to accelerate the transition to domestic provision and clean energy by 2030.

Explored resources: it ranks in the top 2 of Africa in terms of oil, gas, coal, bauxite, tin, gold, limestone, lithium, tantalum, zinc, copper; more than 44 promising types of minerals. The focus of recent years has been on shale gas and “critical minerals" for renewable energy and batteries.

Freshwater reserves: Physically the largest resources in Africa (3 hydrological zones), but the “water crisis”: demand exceeds supply, a large proportion of water becomes unusable due to pollution and losses; it is estimated that at least 56 billion liters of water per day will be needed by 2035 for the needs of the population.

National Payment Processing Center — NIBSS (Nigeria Inter Bank Settlement System), covers all banks, fintech, mobile settlements, as well as interbank transfers, card payments and bulk transactions 24/7. The system is managed by the Central Bank of Nigeria, is technologically advanced and supports both local and international payment solutions. The share of national currency in settlements: In the domestic market, almost 95% of all retail and corporate settlements take place in NAIR (NGN).

In foreign economic activity, the main share of payments is in dollars and euros; discussions are underway in the country about the “dollarization” of certain market sectors, but the government retains the obligation to settle in NAIR. Its own issuing center and credit policy: The Central Bank (CBN) issues the naira, determines the key credit policy, exchange rate, rates, reserves and all macroeconomic decisions (de jure and de facto fully sovereign currency and credit policy).

Data completeness assessment: the main macroeconomic indicators are available from official sources (World Bank, IMF), coverage is 90%

Technological sovereignty — 35.2

R&D expenses (% of GDP): Less than 0.2% of GDP — data from UNESCO and the World Bank. Government spending on research and development is extremely low, most of it in oil and gas and agriculture. Import substitution in high-tech: Localized assembly lines of IT equipment and smartphones (Zinox, AfriOne), popularization of fintech products (Flutterwave, Paystack), but the share of full import substitution is extremely small — up to 10%; almost all key technologies, components and software platforms are imported.

Higher education coverage: 11-13% of the population aged 18-23 years is studying at universities (about 2.3 million students in 2025). The largest universities are Lagos, Ibadan, Abu Jaa; the repertoire of programs is limited by budget and infrastructure. Internet penetration: 53-57% of the total population (110+ million users according to the national regulator NCC and ITU for 2025); coverage is uneven, better in large cities, weaker in rural areas.

Own national digital platforms: There are national IT solutions: the state portal of electronic public services (Nigerian Government Services Portal — ng.gov.ng), electronic tax and registration services, fintech products of local startups; but most of the platforms are technologically based on foreign solutions (Microsoft, Oracle, open source).

High-tech import dependence: VERY high. 90% of servers, storage systems, electronics, and telecom equipment are foreign (the main suppliers are the United States, China, South Korea, and the United Arab Emirates); there is no technological autonomy in any critical area of the country.

Digitalization of public services: UN EGDI (2024) — 0.482, rapid but uneven growth. Electronic filing of declarations, eID, electronic registries, and online public procurement have been developed, but the obstacles are an underdeveloped digital infrastructure and the digital divide between urban and rural areas.

Biotechnological autonomy: Nigeria is one of the African leaders in GMOs and the introduction of biotech in agriculture (Institute for Agricultural Research), but the operation of independent biotechnological platforms is limited; almost all equipment and genetic materials are imported.

Robotic autonomy: there is no industrial sector for the production or design of robots; there are isolated startups-fabs, university projects, but there is no system market or developments. All industrial/service robots are imported. Autonomy for chips and microelectronics: completely absent. The country imports all electronics, microchips and semiconductors from abroad; there are no design and production centers even at the R&D stage.

Data completeness assessment: key indicators are obtained from WIPO, ITU, UNESCO, which provides 93% coverage.

Information sovereignty — 48.6

Cybersecurity (CERT/ITU): The National Center is the Nigeria Computer Emergency Response Team (ngCERT), subordinate to the Ministry of Communications, integrated into the CERT African Network and cooperating with ITU. ITU Nigeria ranks 57th in the global index, the level of cybersecurity development is above the average in Africa, low in the world (weak implementation of standards in the private sector).

IXP/Network development: There are at least 4 major Internet Exchange Points in the country: IXPN (Lagos is the largest), Abuja IXP, Kano IXP, Port Harcourt IXP. The network market is developed — Nigeria is the leader in intra-African Internet traffic, all major providers are connected via IXPN. The backbone network and feeders are distributed across the region.

National language media: The main public and private media outlets are published in English and key local languages (Hausa, Yoruba, Igbo, Efik, Ibibio, etc.), ethnic TV channels broadcast in regional languages, radio stations and print media are aimed at a wide audience. In large cities, the coverage is national.

The number of languages on the air exceeds 85%. BigTech Resilience: Attempts to regulate BigTech have been underway since 2021 (Twitter ban, data localization requirement for Facebook, Google, TikTok). Despite its heavy dependence on global platforms, the government is increasing control and introducing its own digital standards, but there is no technological alternative.

The share of its own media content: More than 60% of on-air radio broadcasting is accounted for by local music, information, cinematographic and entertainment products (Nollywood dominates - the 2nd largest film industry in the world). Online, the share of local content is lower — 30-40%.

Proprietary IT products/software: Fintech (Flutterwave, Paystack, GTB, Interswitch), logistics, agrotech and e-commerce services (Jumia, Kobo360) are developed; public services with localization through ng.gov.ng. The database is mostly open source/purchased foreign solutions, but the startup ecosystem is the most developed in Africa.

Digital service coverage: About 70% of the adult population uses mobile and Internet banking, government online services, utility bills, mobile wallets, electronic government registers (cases: eID, electronic payment of taxes, passports). The reach has grown dramatically over the last 5 years.

National cloud storage systems: There are several public and private data centers (MDXi, Rack Center, Galaxy Backbone), large banks and government agencies use national clouds, but key cloud services (Google Cloud, AWS, Azure) still dominate for business.

Sovereignty of mobile communications: The state licenses and regulates the market through the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC); the main operators MTN Nigeria, Airtel Africa, Globacom, 9mobile are formally private, but regulation (localization of infrastructure, the obligation to provide wiretapping) provides a sufficient degree of control.

The legal regime of personal data: the Data Protection Act (NDPR adopted 2019) and the creation of the Nigeria Data Protection Bureau. The law requires consent, restricts cross-border transfer, and provides regulatory oversight, but the application and protection of rights are still limited by practice, and enforcement is developing.

Data completeness assessment: infrastructure indicators are available from ITU, CIRA, OECD and specialized sources, coverage is 87%.

Cultural sovereignty — 79.4

Number of UNESCO sites: 2 UNESCO World Heritage Sites: The Sacred grove of Osuna-Oshogbo (Osun-Osogbo Sacred Grove, category “Culture") The Cultural Landscape of Sukur (Sukur Cultural Landscape, category “Culture").

Total contribution to world culture: Export of culture through musical genres (afrobeat, afropop, highlife), literature (Chinua Achebe, Babatunda Soyinka — Nobel laureate), Nollywood film industry (2nd in the world in terms of number of films), festivals (FESTAC, Durbar, Argungu), designers, architects, the largest creator of English-language afro content.

National Awards in Art and Culture: The National Council for Art and Culture (NCAC) annually awards awards (National Arts and Culture Awards) — nominations for literature, music, performing arts, design, audiovisual art, craft, fashion and architecture.

Traditions and identity: More than 527 languages and 250 peoples — many rituals, religions, holidays and microcultures (Hausa, Yoruba, Igbo, etc.). Deep ethnic and religious integration, strong preservation of traditions against the background of dynamic urbanization. All major nations have their own rituals, dances, music, and applied art.

State support for small nations: A state program is officially underway to support regional languages and national minorities, and preserve intangible heritage through NCAC, cultural clubs, regional museums, and schools. There is legislation on the protection and development of small nations.

Number of cultural sites: According to the Ministry of Culture, there are over 60 officially registered national museums, dozens of historical and religious sites, and 14 locations on the list of candidates for inclusion in UNESCO (for example, Idanre, Kano city walls, relic forests, and monoliths).

International cultural projects: Nollywood exports, participation in global festivals (FESTAC, Toronto International Film Festival, Berlinale), joint theater and music projects with France, Germany, Great Britain, exhibitions of Nigerian contemporary art, the African diaspora and music exports.

Recognition and protection of cultural brands: Intellectual property is the registration of brands, logos, and design objects through the National Patent Office and current legislation on copyright and related rights. Major cultural brands: Nollywood, Naija music, Aso Oke (fabrics), Suya, Lagos Fashion Week. A variety of culinary culture: National cuisine (girri, fufu, egusi soup, suya, jollof rice, moin moin, akpu, okro, amala, afang soup, pepper soup, piri piri, etc.), street food, regional dishes of all ethnic groups.

The tradition of culinary festivals and the wide variety of national tastes. The proportion of the population involved in cultural life: According to surveys, more than 60% of adults participate at least once a year in national holidays, rituals, religious festivals or cultural events; in large cities, involvement is over 80% (festivals, cinemas, concerts, clubs).

Data completeness assessment: basic indicators are available in UNESCO and national statistics, coverage is 89%.

Cognitive sovereignty — 51.7

Human Development Index (HDI): 0.560 (2023, UNDP), classified as “low/medium"; the new dynamics show a slight increase in recent years. Government spending on education: About 0.35% of GDP (2022) — well below the global average (4.15%). In the structure of the state budget, there is about 3% of current expenditures alone, with a maximum of 3.2% of GDP from 1974 to 2025. Adult literacy: About 65% (2025, estimated based on government statistics), with a regional gap: south and megacities above 80%, north and central regions — up to 35-45%.

International Test Results (PISA): Nigeria does not officially participate in PISA (OECD), but regional tests show worse results than the African average: significant gaps in mathematics, science and reading.

The share of STEM graduates: Estimated 26-28% of university graduates (engineering, medicine, basic sciences), a large STEM development program is underway in schools with an increase in the number of participants by more than 45% over 5 years. Share of foreign educational programs: Approximately 71,000 Nigerian students are studying abroad (2024, mainly the UK, USA, Canada), which corresponds to ~15-20% of the total higher education market.

Languages and cultures of small nations: More than 527 languages and dialects are officially in use; special events and educational programs are conducted to preserve and support regional and native languages (the Indigenous Language Preservation project), their teaching is integrated into part of the programs.

Number of state research centers (fundamental sciences): According to open sources, there are at least 39 state and national research institutes (e. g. Nigerian Academy of Science, National Mathematical Center, scientific research agricultural and medical centers).

The share of the national educational platforms: The Edtech platform market is developed (Ulesson, PrepClass, Pass.ng, ScholarX — Nigerian), the Ministry of Education promotes digitalization, but the coverage share is up to 20% of all students (the rest use global/open source solutions). The volume of government programs to support talents/personnel.

Scholarship, Olympiad, acceleration, and research programs at the federal and regional levels (Presidential Scholarship, TETFund, Talented Young Scientists of Nigeria, university academies, industry and IT grants) are being implemented; funding amounts to hundreds of millions of dollars in a number of areas.

Data completeness assessment: education indicators are available in UNDP, UNESCO, OECD, coverage is 89%.

Military sovereignty — 47.2

Defense spending (% of GDP): About 0.5–0.6% of GDP in 2024 (official statistics, SIPRI works with recalculated data). Unit costs are increasing, but remain below the global average and below the African median. The size of the armed forces: About 140,000 people in the regular forces, including the army, Air Force, Navy, gendarmerie and special forces. 80,000 active ingredients and up to 60,000 auxiliary ingredients are included.

Modern weapons: Weapons of various types: Soviet-Russian equipment (T-72, BTR-80), American (LAV), Chinese (Type 59, drones), many imported weapons from the EU, Israel, South Africa. The main part of the fleet is 1990-2015, part of the equipment and weapons is being updated in 2021-2025. The army is strengthening the component of drones and armored vehicles.

The share of own weapons: Up to 10% — local defense enterprises (Defense Industries Corporation of Nigeria — DICON) produce some small arms, armored vehicles, uniforms, ammunition, and some patrol boats and drones are being assembled. The vast majority of heavy weapons and equipment are imported.

Border control: The National Army, customs and immigration services provide formal control, but with great difficulties: extensive land border (more than 4,000 km), vulnerability to cross-border crime, terrorism, illegal migration. Criticism of the UN: insufficient control and frequent “drawdowns.” Military reserve: Structured, but the number is small — about 7 000-10 000 reservists (military personnel in reserve, territorial forces, mobile reserve), mobilization in an emergency or war, irregular training.

Autonomy of military decisions (accounting for blocs/alliances): Almost all defense policy is formed by national authorities, Nigeria participates only in the peacekeeping missions of ECOWAS, UN, AU, there are no decisions within the framework of military alliances (NSA, NATO, etc.), formally full autonomy in military matters.

National military industry: Based on DICON (1964) — production of small-caliber weapons, spare parts, armored personnel carriers, boats, uniforms, ammunition. There are private enterprises, fleet modernization projects, drones, fire/patrol vehicles, and a set of incentivized startups — but the scale is modest.

The presence of nuclear weapons, the number of warheads, the absolute reserve: Completely absent. All anti-nuclear agreements have been signed and ratified – the NPT, the African Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zone Treaty.

Military space, national Intelligence system: The Space Program (NASRDA) develops only civilian satellites (NigComSat-1R, NigSat-X); there are no military satellites, intelligence is based on ground-based and imported electronic means, coordination with counterterrorism partners (USA, EU).

All parameters are reflected in the annual reports of SIPRI, UNODA, the Ministry of Defense, the official portals of state-owned companies (Embraer, IMBEL) and UN/NGO industry databases – 85% coverage

Final Summary Table

The main conclusions

Strengths. Africa's largest economy and resource potential. GDP by PPP exceeds $1 trillion, per capita — about $6,000 (PPP). Nigeria is one of the top 10 countries in the world in terms of proven reserves of oil, gas, bauxite, lithium, tin and gold. The continent's leader in energy resources and export diversification.

Regional and political center. It is a key member of ECOWAS, OPEC, and the African Union, and recently joined BRICS as a partner. It affects West African security and economic development, while maintaining formal independence of decisions. A cultural and humanitarian force. Nigeria is a global cultural brand: Nollywood (the second largest film industry in the world), Afrobeat and Yoruba school of music, outstanding literary contributions (Achebe, Shoinka), 2 UNESCO sites.

A high share of national media content and the export of African creative products. Demographic and educational potential. With more than 220 million people, the youth structure makes the country the largest labor reserve in the region. STEM training and the number of IT graduates are growing rapidly, and a network of universities and research institutes (about 40 government centers) is developing.

Technology industries and fintech. Africa's leader in digital services and startup ecosystems: Flutterwave, Paystack, Interswitch, Jumia. National payment processing NIBSS is recognized as the most developed on the continent. The fintech sector provides up to 10% of non-financial GDP. The sovereign monetary and financial system. Its own Central Bank (CBN) is an issuing and lending center with complete policy freedom; the national currency is naira. Almost 95% of internal settlements are conducted in the national currency.

Military strategic autonomy. With a budget of 0.5% of GDP, the army of 140,000 people retains full independence; the country is not part of alliances, actively participates in peacekeeping missions, and fully controls its own decisions.

Weaknesses. Socio-economic instability and inequality. 57 million people live in chronic poverty, high inflation (≈30%), depreciation of the nara, and weak infrastructure. The Human Development Index is 0.56 (low average). Insufficient management efficiency. Government Effectiveness (WGI) is the 20th percentile; high corruption, bureaucratization, and poor policy enforcement are noted, especially on the ground. Dependence on imported technologies and equipment.

More than 90% of electronics, servers, IT and telecom equipment are imported. Expenditures on science <0.2% of GDP; there is no biotechnological, robotic and microelectronic autonomy. Infrastructure and energy deficits. Despite the huge reserves of oil and gas, the country is partially dependent on fuel imports; the electric power industry is outdated, 70 million residents are experiencing power outages. Internal instability and security. Conflicts in the North, Boko Haram terrorism, and ethnic and religious clashes are undermining stability.

Border control is problematic due to the huge land border. Low quality of education and literacy. Adult literacy is about 65%, and government spending on education is less than 1% of GDP. 10 million children do not attend school, there is a shortage of staff and outdated learning infrastructure.

Cybersecurity and data protection. Nigeria CERT is functional, but the ITU level is average (57th place). The Law on Personal Data (NDPR) is poorly enforced, and dependence on BigTech platforms remains high. A weak defense industry. Production of own weapons <10% of the demand; heavy weapons, aircraft and Navy are imported.

DICON creates only small arms and light equipment.

Overall assessment. Nigeria's cumulative sovereignty Index is 350.2 out of 700 points (average 50%), which places the country in the top 150 in the global top. Nigeria is a regional power with a powerful demographic, a huge resource base and an independent monetary policy, as well as an increasingly visible soft power (music, cinema, fintech).

However, the country is still hindered from realizing its potential by high technological and infrastructural dependence, low institutional efficiency, internal conflicts, social polarization and managerial weakness.

The strategic priority for the coming years is the strengthening of public administration, the reconstruction of energy and the development of national technologies to reduce import dependence and increase real sovereignty.

The sovereignty profile indicates that Nigeria is a sovereign State with strong political institutions, high resources and absolute monetary and emission autonomy. The country is actively developing its own digital industries, culture, and fintech, but faces serious challenges in the areas of effective governance, infrastructure, technology, and social development.

Sovereignty is strong in traditional sectors, partially limited by import dependence in hi-tech and infrastructure, and requires long-term investments in education, science, and industry for full-fledged technological independence.