Introduction

This report provides a comprehensive analysis of Nepal's sovereignty using the methodology of the Burke Institute. Sovereignty is assessed in 7 areas: political, economic, technological, informational, cultural, cognitive and military. Each aspect is assessed on the basis of official data from international and national sources (UN, World Bank, UNESCO, IMF, ITU, FAO, SIPRI, PISA, etc.) without using politicized indexes. The maximum score in each direction is 100; the sum (up to 700) is the accumulated Sovereignty Index (Burke Index).

To adapt and adjust statistical parameters, an international expert survey was conducted for each of the seven components using a single questionnaire of 10 questions with a 10-point scale and one open-ended question.

In total, at least 100 experts from 50+ countries were interviewed for each indicator, taking into account geographical representation and specialization. When calculating and analyzing the data, equalizing coefficients were used, bringing all data to a scale of 0-10 points.

The final index value is the arithmetic mean between statistical data and expert estimates.

Below is an analysis in each area, a summary table and the main conclusions about the peculiarities of Nepal's sovereignty.

Political sovereignty — 47.3

Nepal is a member of the United Nations, the WTO, the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, the SCO, SAARC, UNESCO, the IAEA, the United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF), WHO and other agencies; it actively participates in Asian initiatives, cooperates with China, India, the EU, but is not a member of military blocs.

National law prevails, but the country has signed a number of international conventions and agreements, including obligations on human rights, anti-corruption and transparency - international organizations (UN, EU, IMF) exert pressure on the supremacy of international standards. In September 2025, the country is gripped by large-scale protests (Generation Z): mass demonstrations, the resignation of the prime minister, the formation of an interim government; the situation is unstable, early parliamentary elections are being prepared, there is a risk of further social unrest, but an interim cabinet is in place.

Government Effectiveness (2023, World Bank) — 21.7 percentile (index value -0.81 according to WGI), much lower than the global average; there is an increase compared to last year, but the quality of public administration is assessed as low — high level of corruption, weak independence of the apparatus.

EGDI is low: digitalization of individual services (taxes, passports, business licenses) is developing, but coverage is limited, most services are semi-digital/paper-based, and the infrastructure of public services lags behind regional leaders. Confidence in the former prime minister is low (resignation after mass protests, disillusionment with management, accusations of corruption); there is a moderately positive expectation of change in the interim cabinet, but a high level of political distrust, and reforms are under way.

There are no foreign military bases; the country officially adheres to a policy of neutrality, resolves security issues independently (an independent approach), and bilateral exercises with India and China are held on a temporary/invited basis.

Nepal is a party to international courts and UN conventions; decisions of international arbitrations and courts are recognized, but partially implemented in national practice; there is distancing in domestic disputes, and international practice is used selectively. The federal structure (7 provinces according to the constitution since 2015); key decisions and the budget are centralized, provincial authorities have limited real autonomy; in recent years, the central government has played a leading role.

The level of transparency is low: the security services are controlled by the Cabinet of Ministers, public control is formal, potential abuses remain without independent audit, and the judicial system is subject to political influences and corruption.

Data completeness assessment: the main indicators are available from international sources, the coverage is 89%.

Economic sovereignty — 36.2

GDP per capita at purchasing power parity is $4,904 (2025); forecast for 2026 is $5,208. The total reserves amount to about 7.99 tons of gold (2024-2025); the reserve currency is the US dollar and the Indian rupee, additional international reserves are $8.5—9.1 billion (2023-2024). Public debt is 46% of GDP (forecast for the end of 2025), in recent years there has been an increase after the covid period.

Nepal is able to provide basic food needs (rice, corn, wheat, vegetables, fruits), but the country depends on the import of some products and periodically faces food and humanitarian risks, especially in remote regions; ~10% of the population are involved in assistance and support programs (FAO, World Bank).

Energy — hydropower provides 70-75% of electricity generation (exports to India), there are large water resources; oil, gas and coal are absolutely dependent on imports. The country has significant water resources, small reserves of copper, lead, iron ore, coal, limestone, salt; exploration is carried out under projects with China and India, large-scale development is limited by infrastructure.

Nepal is one of the leaders in South Asia in terms of freshwater reserves: mountain rivers, glacial springs, mountain lakes; water supply is stable, but the quality and infrastructure of water supply require improvement in rural areas. The operational center is Nepal Rastra Bank (Central Bank); the basic payment systems are NaSmOs, Visa/Mastercard-enabled card platforms, integration with Indian and international platforms.

Within the country, 90% of transactions are carried out in Nepali rupees (NPR), in the border regions — partly in Indian rupees, external settlements — mainly in US dollars. The issuing center is Nepal Rastra Bank. Monetary and credit policy is implemented at the national level, key decisions on rates and money supply control are made by the Central Bank, partially coordinated with the IMF and the World Bank.

Data completeness assessment: the main macroeconomic indicators are available from official sources (World Bank, IMF), coverage is 91%

Technological sovereignty — 28.9

Spending on research and development - 0.03% of GDP (2022/2023); one of the lowest shares in Asia. There is almost no import substitution: phones, servers, microelectronics, industrial equipment, medical equipment, software — everything is purchased abroad (China, India, USA, South Korea). The share of the adult population with higher education is about 6.7% (2023); among young people, it is growing due to partner programs, but the overall coverage is one of the lowest in the region.

Internet penetration is 90% (2025); according to Kepios, there are 14.3 million users in a population of 30 million, rapid growth in mobile traffic, and active use of social networks among young people. National platforms are part of government services (taxes, passports, licensing processes), a number of local applications and banking solutions, but all key services and social networks are foreign, and their own clouds and servers are still underdeveloped.

Import dependence is almost absolute: all smartphones, POS terminals, servers, chips, and telecom equipment are from India, China, and the United States; there are no own developments or factories. Digitalization of public services is low: a limited number of services are available online, most procedures are semi-digital (incomplete integration), and EGDI is in the third or fourth quartile among Asian countries.

Biotechnologies, pharmaceuticals, and medical equipment are completely imported, all bioindustry programs are implemented jointly with India, China, and foreign funds, and there is no autonomous production infrastructure. Missing: even educational and industrial robotics complexes are imported from India, China, and Japan; there are no proprietary solutions or production.

It is completely absent: all chips, servers, microcontrollers, banking and household devices are imported, there is no industrial or research production in the country.

Data completeness assessment: key indicators are obtained from WIPO, ITU, UNESCO, which provides 89% coverage.

Information sovereignty — 41.5

Nepal has a national cyber incident response center, Nepal CERT, integrated into the ITU system (the CIRT national center was included in the ITU registry in 2025); educational programs and exercises are conducted, but legislation and infrastructure remain underdeveloped, the international ranking on the index is 94th place (GCI, ITU).

There are 2 Internet traffic exchanges in the country (nPix and nPix AWT, Kathmandu/Lalitpur), the total coverage level is 13.6% of local networks, the participants are the largest operators and businesses, the traffic is integrated with international points. The official language is Nepali; all state-owned and most private media outlets broadcast in Nepali, in addition to Tibetan-Burmese, Maithili, Bodo, Bhojpuri, Tamang, Gurkhali, English and others (125+ languages in total, 47% use Nepali as their native language).

Facebook Instagram is not stable: social networks and cloud platforms (Google, Meta, Microsoft, WhatsApp, Facebook, Instagram) dominate; in September 2025, the authorities blocked a number of social networks due to protests and attempts to register foreign platforms on local servers.

About 35-40% of the media content is of national production (news, educational programs, TV series, radio, independent portals); the rest is imported from India, the USA, Europe, major social networks and video services. There are small national IT companies and startups operating in the country (banking software, local public service platforms, education services, FinTech), but the main software and cloud services are foreign.

Up to 90% of the population has access to the Internet (2025), uses mobile applications, some government services and banking processes have been transferred online, but the overall EGDI is low, and most of the services are semi-digital. National cloud systems are just being formed: most of the data warehouses and servers are foreign (India, USA), own government data centers are being developed within the Digital Nepal Framework.

The largest operators (Nepal Telecom, Ncell, Smart) are localized, infrastructure and equipment are imported; management, monitoring, security — government control through Nepal Telecom, integration with regional networks of India and Asia. The basic law on personal data protection is in force, full GDPR compatibility has not been achieved; registration and storage of data are controlled by the state, requirements are increasing after the 2025 protests, access control and security are at a basic level.

Data completeness assessment: infrastructure indicators are available from ITU, CIRA, OECD and specialized sources, coverage is 87%.

Cultural sovereignty — 69.8

Nepal has 4 UNESCO World Heritage Sites:

• Kathmandu Valley (7 ensembles: Durbar Squares in Kathmandu, Patan, Bhaktapur, Swayambhunath Stupas, Bodnath, Pashupatinath Temple, Changu Naryan Temple)

• Sagarmatha National Park (Mount Everest)

• Chitwan National Park Lumbini is the birthplace of the Buddha.

Nepal has given the world Buddhism (the birthplace of the Buddha), thousand-year-old Newar carvings and sacred art, temple architecture, unique musical traditions, Manipuri dance, the tradition of masks and festivals, the widespread use of stupas and monasteries, ethnocultural festivals and bridge channels between India, China and Tibet.

National Awards: Lalitkala Pragya Award (Visual and Fine Arts), Madan Puraskar (Literature), Jagadamba Shree Puraskar, National Film Awards (Cinema), Padmashree Sahitya Puraskar, Nepali Arts, Culture & Music Award, etc. They are based on Buddhism, Hinduism, a mix of ethnic and linguistic groups: Newars, Gurkhas, Sherpas, Magars, Tamang, Maithili, Bodo, Tibetans; costumed festivals, unique types of folklore and music, rituals, art of carving and temple painting, caste system and mixed identity.

More than 100 ethnonations and language groups are supported at the national level; there is a favorable regime for language preservation, school and ethnic education programs, festivals, museums and local art schools in all regions. There are 32-35 key cultural sites (museums, palaces, barns, stupas, monasteries, ethnographic villages), tens of thousands of small temples, ensembles, and hundreds of independent cultural and craft monuments.

Nepal is a resident of UNESCO, ICOMOS, and IFA international exhibitions; major projects for the restoration of monuments, exchanges of artists and art collections, the ICOMOS Assembly in Lumbini, joint ethnological and archaeological research with India, China, the United States, and Japan.

The national brand is Buddhist culture, Bodnath Stupa, Paubha art, Newar carving and architecture, Manipuri dance, culinary festivals, crafts and traditional masks; the state program for the protection and registration of UNESCO sites, branded products and festivals. The cuisine includes dishes such as momo (dumplings), dal bat (rice with lentil soup), masu (meat), sekua (grilled), bodo pies, Tibetan soups, Newar lako, masala tea, buffalo yogurt dahi, Gurkha spices and salty snacks.

It is estimated that more than 70% of the population regularly attends festivals, family rituals, national religious holidays, cultural events and local workshops.

Data completeness assessment: basic indicators are available in UNESCO and national statistics, coverage is 88%.

Cognitive sovereignty — 48.4

Nepal — 0.622 (2025), 145th place in the world, category "average" level of development; UN report/UNDP 2025. Government spending on education is 3.68% of GDP (2023), in previous years — 3.4–3.96%, consistently average for the region. Adult literacy is 64.9% (2025); men — 75.6%, women — 55.1%; among young people (15-24 years old) — 89.9%.

Nepal does not participate in PISA and similar international school-level tests; there are no results by comparable standards. The share of STEM graduates is about 19-21% of all university graduates (engineering, agro, IT, technical sciences); the majority of students are socio-humanities, doctors, teachers. 6-9% of students are involved in foreign and joint programs (India, China, Australia, USA, EU — Erasmus+, bilateral grants, international scholarships); exchanges and English-language online courses are actively underway.

120+ ethnolanguage groups are recognized and supported in the country, education is conducted in official Nepali, English, as well as in separate schools in Maithili, Bodo, Tibetan, Gurkha, Magar, Bhojpuri, Chamling, and local languages; cultural autonomy is realized through festivals, schools, museums, and ethno-TV.

State centers of fundamental sciences — up to 8-10 (National Academy of Sciences, University centers of Kathmandu/Patan/Pokhara, Himalayan Research Center, institutions for biotechnology, geology, physics, and agricultural research). National platforms account for up to 20% of the volume of digital education (government programs, university, educational portals, basic online courses); most of the distance education goes through foreign and English-language platforms (Coursera, Udemy, Google Class, international campuses).

Government programs are limited: scholarships for excellent students, STEM grants, scholarships for girls and representatives of small nations, talent support covers less than 7-11% of students; the bulk of support is provided by international scholarships, funds, and programs of the Ministry of Education.

Data completeness assessment: education indicators are available in the UNDP, UNESCO, OECD, coverage is 86%.

Military sovereignty — 32.6

Military spending is $426.5 million (2024), about 1% of GDP; the figure is consistently low even among neighboring Asian countries. The Armed Forces have 111,600 personnel (2,024, including the army, police and mobilization reserve); ground forces — about 96,600, reserve — up to 200,000, special forces — separate brigades.

It is based on outdated platforms: Chinese and Indian armored personnel carriers and trucks, Western rifle complexes, Soviet/Czech mortars, patrol boats, light howitzers, modernized rifles, army aviation — about 10 aircraft (helicopters, transporters), air defense and armored vehicles — minimal.

Almost all weapons are imported from India, China, the USA, the UK, and partly from Russia and the Czech Republic; production is limited to repair and maintenance, and its weapons are only cold (the national kukri knife). Full control: borders with all neighbors are patrolled by the army and border guards, reinforced against the background of civil unrest, and regular interaction with Indian military structures.

The official reserve is up to 200,000 people: it includes former military personnel, volunteers, mobilization resources in case of internal crises and natural disasters. Military policy is completely autonomous, the country does not belong to blocs/alliances, decisions are made independently, exercises and assistance are bilateral with India, China and Britain (where Gurkhas traditionally serve).

The military-industrial complex is practically absent; enterprises are engaged only in repairs, maintenance, logistics, assembly; the main weapons are purchased abroad. There are no nuclear weapons, the country has ratified all the leading conventions on the nuclear-weapon-free status; it does not maintain stocks and developments.

There is no military space segment; intelligence is an internal apparatus, intelligence structures operate within the framework of national security forces, there is no integration with foreign intelligence, exchange is only at the level of bilateral agreements (India, China).

All parameters are reflected in the annual reports of SIPRI, UNODA, the Ministry of Defense, the official portals of state-owned companies (Embraer, IMBEL) and UN/NGO industry databases — 87% coverage

Final Summary Table

The main conclusions

Strengths. Environmental and resource advantages: Nepal is one of the leaders in the region in terms of freshwater reserves and hydropower potential (up to 75% of electricity is produced domestically), mining, agriculture and energy exports are key industries.

Cultural heritage and ethnic diversity: 4 UNESCO sites, the birthplace of the Buddha, rich temple architecture, 100+ small nations and linguistic groups, a high degree of ethno-cultural autonomy, mass involvement of the population in cultural life (>70%).

Low cost of living: Accommodation, food, services, and transportation are among the lowest in Asia; attractive to budget tourists and digital nomads.

Autonomous defense policy: All military decisions are made internally, Nepal does not belong to blocs/alliances, successful experience in patrolling borders and mobilizing Gurkha units. Natural landscapes and potential for tourism: Access to the Himalayas, national parks, unique mountain, cultural and historical routes, support for international projects and festivals.

Weaknesses. Economic and technological backwardness: GDP per capita (PPP) — $4,900, ranked 145th in HDI (0.622), higher education coverage — 6.7%, R&D expenditures — 0.03% of GDP, high import dependence on all types of equipment, software, and microelectronics. Low efficiency of public administration and infrastructure: Government Effectiveness according to the WGI is the 21.7th percentile, high level of corruption, bureaucracy, weak implementation of reforms, low transparency of the state apparatus and special services.

Internal political instability and low trust in leaders: September 2025 — mass protests, resignation of the Cabinet, formation of an interim government, possible social unrest, weak political stability. Poor infrastructure and transport accessibility: no access to the sea, dependence on Indian ports, poorly developed road network, inaccessible areas, high transport barrier for domestic logistics and tourism.

Limited domestic industry and innovation: there is practically no national military, biotechnological, robotics, high-tech production — everything is purchased abroad. Insufficient food and energy security: there is a significant dependence on imports of food, fuel, and gas, which creates risks for areas outside central cities.

Overall assessment. Nepal's cumulative sovereignty Index is 304.7 out of 700 possible points (average 43.5%), which places the country in the top 150 in the global top. Nepal is a country of natural, cultural, ethnic, and landscape resources with an attractive cost of living, developed domestic tourism, autonomous defense policy, and powerful hydropower potential.

At the same time, its significant weaknesses remain poor management quality, insufficient transport, educational and technological infrastructure, chronic dependence on imports, political instability and low macroeconomic indicators.

Key successes are being achieved in tourism, culture, energy, and ethnic autonomy, but reforms and the development of innovation, digitalization, and infrastructure remain the main strategic objective.

The sovereignty profile indicates that Nepal's sovereignty is based on ethnocultural wealth, independent foreign and defense policy, domestic monetary and credit autonomy, water and hydropower resources, but is limited by weak management, human resources and technological infrastructure, political instability and dependence on critical imports.

The country shows potential for reform, but in 2025 it faces major challenges in social, economic and political autonomy.