Introduction

This report provides a comprehensive analysis of Mali's sovereignty using the methodology of the Burke Institute. Sovereignty is assessed in 7 areas: political, economic, technological, informational, cultural, cognitive and military. Each aspect is assessed on the basis of official data from international and national sources (UN, World Bank, UNESCO, IMF, ITU, FAO, SIPRI, PISA, etc.) without using politicized indexes. The maximum score in each direction is 100; the sum (up to 700) is the accumulated Sovereignty Index (Burke Index).

To adapt and adjust statistical parameters, an international expert survey was conducted for each of the seven components using a single questionnaire of 10 questions with a 10-point scale and one open-ended question.

In total, at least 100 experts from 50+ countries were interviewed for each indicator, taking into account geographical representation and specialization. When calculating and analyzing the data, equalizing coefficients were used, bringing all data to a scale of 0-10 points.

The final index value is the arithmetic mean between statistical data and expert estimates.

Below is an analysis in each area, a summary table and the main conclusions about the specifics of Mali's sovereignty.

Political sovereignty — 28.4

Mali is a member of the United Nations, the League of Arab States, the African Union (participation has been frozen since 2021), the Organization of Islamic Cooperation, and the Sahel-Sahara Union. Since January 2024, it has withdrawn from ECOWAS (together with Burkina Faso and Niger); since 2023, a course towards maximum sovereignty, abandoning Western tools and “regional dictates.”

National legislation dominates: the army administration has restricted the enforcement of ECOWAS Court decisions, suspended a number of international treaties, and all reforms are carried out through CNSP decrees. The Constitution of 1992 formally remains, but the regime of “sovereign restoration” (souveraineté retrouvée) is in effect, local and religious law prevail in the regions.

The country is experiencing acute instability: the military junta, political parties and associations have been dissolved (May 2025), the opposition has been suppressed, massive restrictions on civil liberties, armed clashes and a partial loss of control over the north and center. WGI (2024): -1.30; low efficiency — corruption, bureaucracy, low cost control, limited coordination between the center and the regions. EGDI — 0.39 (2022); basic portals are functioning, online public services are minimally implemented, only large cities have access to basic services.

Colonel Assimi Goita (CNSP/The President) It retains high support among a part of the population due to its successes in the fight against terrorism and anti—colonial policies (especially after the withdrawal of French troops and the involvement of Wagner), but the level of trust is sharply polarized, and control over the opposition is repressive.

Since 2022, all missions of France, the EU, and the United Nations (MINUSMA) have been withdrawn, Russian (and African) “specialists” and limited bases/camps have remained; there is a different presence of Russian military (Wagner PMCs), Iranian, and Turkish advisers; there are no foreign armed bases in the classical sense. Participation in international tribunals and the ECOWAS Court is minimized, distancing from the courts; courts in international cases are rarely executed, domestic jurisdiction is military and special forces.

The regime of maximum centralization around the CNSP and the president, regional administrations and municipalities follow the directives of the army; some level of local (traditional/religious) self-government is implemented in rural areas and among ethnic groups.

Security forces (army, intelligence, national The Guards) operate behind closed doors, there is no external audit or parliamentary control, mass accusations of abuse of authority, violations of rights, torture, restrictions on the media and civil society activists, investigations are often blocked.

Data completeness assessment: the main indicators are available from international sources, the coverage is 87%.

Economic sovereignty — 31.7

GDP is $2,911 (2024, World Bank/TradingEconomics); historical maximum is $2,916, global average is $27,000. Gold and foreign exchange reserves of $0.27–0.49 billion (2024, BCEAO, FocusEconomics); covers 0.5–1.5 months of imports, the country is critically dependent on BCEAO revenues and currency support for the zone.

National debt 47.8–53.1% of GDP (2024, World Bank, IMF, Statista, FocusEconomics); within the African and global median values. The domestic agricultural sector covers only 65-70% of the needs, up to 30-45% of the population in dry seasons is at risk of food shortages; the country receives external humanitarian assistance annually.

About 45-48% of electricity and fuel are produced domestically (hydroelectric power plants, bioenergy, oil and gas projects), the bulk of energy resources are imported from Côte d'Ivoire, Senegal, and Mauritania. Mali ranks 1-3 in Africa in terms of gold exports (62 tons/year), has reserves of phosphates, limestone, uranium, iron ore, bauxite, oil and gas. The share of local companies and national control is low.

The main reserves are the basins of the Niger River and the Baths, large underground aquifers; the regions of the south are secured, the north is experiencing structural disruptions due to droughts and continental geography. It is carried out through the region-wide BCEAO system (WEST AFRICAN CFA FRANC, XOF), banks are processed using the unified UEMOA/WAEMU processing, the share of cash/electronic payments is growing.

More than 95% of all domestic settlements are in XOF; export transactions are mainly dollar/euro, the return of foreign exchange earnings is strictly regulated through BCEAO. It is fully centralized on BCEAO/UEMOA (CBZAO); the refinancing rate and credit policy are the same for the region, Mali does not implement its own monetary policy.

Data completeness assessment: the main macroeconomic indicators are available from official sources (World Bank, IMF), coverage is 91%

Technological sovereignty — 18.6

R&D 0.17% of GDP (2021, World Bank, Global Innovation Index, 2024-0.17%), significantly below the global average. Missing: all key products (electronics, communications, software, medical equipment) are imported, there is no domestic industry.

Coverage — 4.7% (2019, UNESCO, WB, falling trend, maximum — 6.6% in 2012), significant difference between cities and rural areas. 33.1% of the population (2024) are Internet users; 96.4% of the population have mobile connections, and less than 6% have fixed Internet. There is a state portal of public services, tax and educational systems, but the main modules are implemented on the basis of foreign companies, local development is minimal. More than 95% of the hardware and software, including for education/social support, is imported, and there are no stable development or production clusters.

EGDI — 0.39 (2022); only part of the services are in online format (taxes, documents, applications), there are many failures, regions less than 10% of the population use e-gov. There is no basic industry or serious laboratory centers; biotechnologies are represented by laboratories established jointly with international funds for healthcare and agriculture.

There is no industrial or educational cluster, there are separate STEM projects as educational initiatives in the capital - not systematically. There is no in-house production, no laboratories; even the simplest parts and components for basic IT systems are imported.

Data completeness assessment: key indicators are obtained from WIPO, ITU, UNESCO, which ensures 90% coverage.

Information sovereignty — 26.9

Mali is Tier 4 according to the ITU Global Cybersecurity Index (2024), is in the fourth category among African countries with one of the lowest levels of security. There is no national CERT, the strategy is formal, and there are almost no practical measures to protect the infrastructure.

There is one national IXP in Bamako, a small increase in traffic has been recorded through direct exchange within the country, most of the Internet traffic is still routed through foreign exchange points. In 2024, French was excluded from the status of the state language, French was the working language, 13 national languages (Bambara, Dogon, Minianka, etc.) were official, all TV, radio, and key media outlets produce materials in Bambara and regional languages, and the share of French—language airplay is less than 20%.

All platforms and computing infrastructure (clouds, social networks, messengers) are foreign, and vulnerability is high; there is no major national alternative or standardized software. ~52% of the TV and radio content is locally produced (news, music, entertainment, educational programs in national languages), the rest is foreign films, streaming, and Francophone programs.

There are basic educational, service, and banking solutions, but there are no large-scale national IT platforms or software exports; the main part of the platforms is localization/interfaces over foreign products.

33% of the population use the Internet; access to public services is only in large cities, most residents use basic banks and tax platforms, and there is deep digital unevenness. They are not developed: all government projects and banks store data either on foreign clouds (AWS, Azure, OVH) or on hosting sites in Europe; there are no data centers. All key mobile operators (Orange, Sotelma/Malitel, Telecel) are subsidiaries of foreign holdings; all equipment, software, and SIM cards are imported. Legislation on personal data is not developed.

There is no specialized regulator, legal guarantees are minimal, and processing and storage are carried out according to the standards of foreign platforms.

Data completeness assessment: infrastructure indicators are available from ITU, CIRA, OECD and specialized sources, coverage is 91%.

Cultural sovereignty — 68.1

4 World Heritage Sites:

• Old Towns of Djenné

• Timbuktu * Tomb of Askia

• Cliffs of Bandiagara (Land of the Dogons / Cliff of Bandiagara, Land of the Dogons) Three of them are on the list under threat due to conflict and destruction.

Mali is one of the oldest states in West Africa, the epicenter of trans-Saharan trade and Islamic scholarship (Timbuktu), a developed Griot caste (oral history), polyphonic music, dance, crafts, religious architecture, national art (masks, textiles, bronze), known for the school of Malian manuscripts and the epic.

The Ministry of Culture awards annual National Prizes (“Premiers Prix Nationaux") for music, literature, traditions, architecture, and crafts. The country has developed competitions among grito, leather craftsmen, and the national Grand Bamako Festival. Bambara, Fula, Dogon, Tuareg, Songhai and Mande form the basis of culture.

Traditional clothes, masks, grito music, “playful kinship" (sanankuya) are widespread; family and tribal rituals, Ramadan holidays, cattle breeding and agricultural rituals, the caste structure of crafts is pronounced. Ethnic groups and languages are officially recognized and supported (13 national languages) languages in the constitution), there are educational and cultural quotas, grants, support for the preservation of crafts, museum projects, and ethnic festivals. 4 UNESCO sites, dozens of monuments and mosques, 7 museums, dogon museums, ancient libraries of Timbuktu, about 20+ regional ethnocultural centers, several annual national festivals.

Mali participates in UNESCO conservation programs, ALIPH projects, international restoration and archaeological missions, and cultural exchanges between African countries and the Arab world. The state initiative concerns masks, fabrics, crafts, manuscripts and traditional rituals, gastronomy and dance; Mali's image brands are protected by the Cultural Heritage Act and UNESCO. White millet, rice porridges, peanut soups, tiga dege sauce, fufu, meat and vegetable dishes, fish dishes from Niger, guest green tea and popular street snacks made from millet and corn. 70-80% are involved in traditional holidays, religious rituals, family and tribal rituals, up to 50% of young people participate in music and dance competitions, ethnofestivals, and holidays.

Data completeness assessment: basic indicators are available in UNESCO and national statistics, coverage is 87%.

Cognitive sovereignty — 32.4

HDI = 0.419 (2023, UNDP), world ranking — 180, one of the lowest indicators: African average — 0.54, global — 0.74. Education expenditure 4.0–4.04% of GDP (2022, UNESCO/World Bank), corresponds to the average annual level over the past 5 years. Literacy rate — 31% (2020, WB/UNESCO): men — 48.2%, women — 29.2%. Youth literacy — 54% (men — 61.5%, women — 46.4%). Mali does not participate in PISA.

Internal exams show a very low level of functional literacy and mathematical skills, massive disruptions and a generalized educational crisis. There is no clear up—to-date data, according to expert estimates, less than 13% of university graduates are in STEM fields; the majority are in pedagogy and law. 2-4% of students are involved in international programs (France, Morocco, Côte d'Ivoire, UNESCO-AU exchanges), French-speaking and global initiatives prevail.

13 national languages (Bambara, Dogon, Soninke, Tuareg/Tamashek, etc.) — official, mandatory for teaching along with French; educational and cultural quotas, regional programs to support literature and rituals. 2 state research centers — the Bamako Institute of Fundamental Research, laboratories at universities; resources and funding are limited, the infrastructure is outdated.

There is a state-owned online distance learning system (E-Education Mali), which covers about 8-10% of students in urban schools and universities; the majority are offline or so-called “micro-programs". There are up to 7-9 competitions/state programs (scholarships, Olympiads, UNESCO, AU programs, national awards), annual enrollment is ~2,000 students and young professionals.

Data completeness assessment: education indicators are available in the UNDP, UNESCO, OECD, coverage is 97%.

Military sovereignty — 28,7

3.8–4.0 % OF GDP (2023-2024, SIPRI, Statista, TradingEconomics, National budget); defense budget of $930-1,110 million. Regular forces — 21,000 (2025); additional 4,800 in the gendarmerie, National Guard and police, at least 10,000 mobilized in recent years. The fleet includes up to 7 T-72B3/T-90M (transferred to the Russian Federation), 5 BMP-3, ~275 armored vehicles (armored cars, MRAPs), artillery, air defense systems, 3-10 modern Bayraktar TB2 UAVs, light aircraft (L-39 Albatros, Cessna), missile systems. Imports in 2023-2025 from Russia, Turkey, China, and Iran.

Wagner and the Russian military have equipment superior to the Malian one. 2024-2025: the first factories for the assembly of weapons, ammunition, and armored vehicles are being built, the launch is announced for 2025. So far, 98% of the equipment, ammunition and kits are imported.

Zone control: army, National Guard, special forces; the north and center of the country are areas of constant clashes with rebels/jihadists, peripheral areas are sometimes lost during critical periods — army, drone and aviation monitoring is used. Officially, 4,800 (gendarmerie, guard, reserve of the Armed Forces), with mobilization — up to 10,000–12,000; militias and local militias are actively being formed to patrol in the regions.

The Republic does not belong to military blocs; all decisions on procurement, operations, and strategic issues are made within the CNSP; external relations are built individually (Russia, Turkey, and Iran). 2025 — launch of the national military-industrial complex: factories for the assembly of tactical weapons, armored vehicles, ammunition, explosives have been announced; by 2025, their own assembly and small production facilities.

There are no nuclear weapons, the country is a member of the NPT, and it does not conduct military nuclear or ballistic programs. There is no space infrastructure, satellites, or powerful electronic intelligence; army and Interior Ministry intelligence are used, Turkish and Russian UAVs with reconnaissance capabilities are increasingly being used, and some satellite data is received from partners.

All parameters are reflected in the annual reports of SIPRI, UNODA, the Ministry of Defense, the official portals of state-owned companies (Embraer, IMBEL) and industry databases of UN/NGO - 87\6% coverage

Final Summary Table

The main conclusions

Strengths. Ethnocultural, historical and natural capital: 4 UNESCO sites (Timbuktu, Djenne, Askia Tomb, Bandiagara Rocks), developed oral tradition (griots), unique school of Cordoba-Timbuktu, crafts, architecture and ethnolinguistic diversity (13 official languages, support for small nations).

Resource base: 1st-3rd place in gold exports in Africa (62+ tons/year), reserves of iron, uranium, bauxite and phosphates; sufficient own water reserves in key basins, prospects for expanding production and agro-energy projects.

Macroeconomic stability: Government debt in the middle range (47-53% of GDP), support through BCEAO/XOF, inflation rate below a number of neighbors, the domestic market is relatively protected. Military-political autonomy: The army is independent, political decisions are made within the CNSP, there are no foreign bases, the start of the creation of a national military-industrial complex (2025), purchases in Russia, China and Turkey, strengthening border control, the massive use of drones and new equipment against the rebels.

Preservation of cultural and family identity: 70-80% of the population are involved in religious, family, caste and national cultural practices and festive events every year.

Weaknesses. Critically low indicators of human development: HDI — 0.419 (180th place in the world); adult literacy — 31%, youth literacy — 54%; higher education coverage ~4-5%; less than 13% of STEM graduates. Economic/technological dependence and poverty: GDP per capita is $2,900, sovereign reserves are < $500 million, the energy sector is less than half provided by domestic resources, import dependence on fuel and electronics is ~95%.

The actual external management of the financial and monetary circuit: BCEAO manages the issue and credit system, exchange rates and reserves depend on external conditions, the digital payment/banking system is integrated into the region.

Fragmented digitalization and a weak IT sector: Internet penetration - 33%, EGDI - 0.39; national platforms cover only 8-10% of students, critical import dependence on software and infrastructure, there is no local chip industry, the military—industrial complex is just being formed. Internal political instability and repressive control: Centralization of power by the CNSP, constant threat of military conflicts, massive restrictions on the media, NGOs, the opposition, low transparency of the special services.

Chronic problems of food and energy security: up to 30-45% of the population is at risk of hunger every year, food security is ensured through external assistance and humanitarian channels. Overall, Mali's cumulative sovereignty index is 234.8 out of 700 possible points (below the average of 33.5%), which places the country in the top 200 in the world.

Mali retains a unique position in terms of culture, gold, and historical influence, and is shaping a new military-industrial sovereignty, but remains vulnerable to the challenges of poverty, import dependence, weak human resources, unsustainable digital development, and institutional/legal challenges.

Systemic risks are associated with border control, low innovation, poverty and inefficiency of management, and the positive is in strengthening defense, building up the military-industrial complex and maintaining ethnic and cultural identity.

The sovereignty profile indicates that Mali is an ethnocultural integrated state with high resource potential, rapidly growing military autonomy and cultural identity, but with an extremely low level of human and digital capital development, rigid centralization of power, dependence on foreign markets and technologies, structural problems in security and governance institutions.

The sovereignty of Mali is a balance between a new geopolitical line, cultural saturation and serious challenges of systemic development-