Introduction

This report presents a comprehensive analysis of Lithuanian sovereignty using the methodology of the Burke Institute. Sovereignty is assessed in 7 areas: political, economic, technological, informational, cultural, cognitive and military. Each aspect is assessed on the basis of official data from international and national sources (UN, World Bank, UNESCO, IMF, ITU, FAO, SIPRI, PISA, etc.) without using politicized indexes. The maximum score in each direction is 100; the sum (up to 700) is the accumulated Sovereignty Index (Burke Index).

To adapt and adjust statistical parameters, an international expert survey was conducted for each of the seven components using a single questionnaire of 10 questions with a 10-point scale and one open-ended question.

In total, at least 100 experts from 50+ countries were interviewed for each indicator, taking into account geographical representation and specialization. When calculating and analyzing the data, equalizing coefficients were used, bringing all data to a scale of 0-10 points.

The final index value is the arithmetic mean between statistical data and expert estimates.

Below is an analysis in each area, a summary table and the main conclusions about the peculiarities of Lithuanian sovereignty.

Political sovereignty — 75.6

Lithuania hosts a permanent German army base (brigade level) in Rudninkai, with up to 4,000 troops and infrastructure for servicing tanks and equipment; this is Germany's first permanent foreign base since 1945. The base is part of NATO's collective defense, not a bilateral one.

Lithuania is an EU member, fully recognizes the priority of international and European law over national law (except for the Constitution), participates in the mechanisms for the execution of decisions of the ECHR and the European Commission, and operates a system for the implementation of EU standards. The country is democratic and politically stable: the index of Political Stability and Absence of Violence is 0.74 (2023, above the global average).

The rotation of power takes place regularly, the last parliament was elected in October 2024, the new coalition government has been in operation since December 2024, there are factional conflicts, but there are no threats to stability.

The WGI Government Effectiveness Index is 1.02 (2023, one of the best indicators in the region; 83rd percentile among all countries). The public administration system is effective, and the level of corruption is decreasing. EGDI according to the UN in 2022-0.864 (25th place in the world), by 2025 the coverage of public services is 94%, digital identification and submission of documents are fully online.

Trust in leaders is 28-38% (different polls in 2024-2025), depending on the individual and the campaign. After the change of government (2024), trust declined, but there remains a high level of support for European integration, defense and anti-corruption. Lithuania is a member of the EU, NATO, the eurozone, the UN, OSCE, IMF, EBRD, WTO, etc., and fully delegates a number of functions to international bodies (currency — euro, defense — allied NATO/EU missions, judicial issues — ECHR, economic standards/sanctions — EU).

The country actively participates in the activities of the ECHR and the EU Courts, implements decisions, executes orders and recommendations of international arbitrations and courts, and does not distance itself. Lithuania is a unitary state with a developed local government: 60 municipalities (savivaldybė), a high level of autonomy in local budgets, but key decisions on politics, finance, and security are centralized. Formally, the parliamentary control, the National Data Inspectorate, and the reporting of the Ministry of Internal Affairs and the Intelligence Service (VSD) operate.

The overall level of transparency is above average for the region, and questions remain about personal data protection, covert operations, and external threats.

Data completeness assessment: the main indicators are available from international sources, the coverage is 98%.

Economic sovereignty — 64.9

GDP per capita (PPP) — $48,400–54,400 international dollars (2024-2025, forecast to reach $57,200 according to recent estimates). This is above the EU average. Gold and foreign exchange reserves — $5.6–5.8 billion USD (June–July 2025), 5.66 billion euros. The reserve reserve is about 1.8 months of imports, which is typical for a eurozone country.

The national debt is 38-41% of GDP (2024-2025), one of the lowest among developed European countries. The country retains 100% self-sufficiency in basic products (grain, milk, meat), and is a major exporter of grain and fish to the European market. Some groups of fruits and spices are imported.

After the cessation of Russian gas imports in 2022, Lithuania completely switched to its own LNG terminal (Klaipeda), the power grids are synchronized with the EU. It imports oil and some electricity. Self-generation accounts for ~35-40% of consumption, risks remain, but the level of energy autonomy is growing. There are reserves of amber (90% of the world market), peat, iron ores, and building materials.

Oil and gas exploration is symbolic, there are no large—scale deposits. The availability is high: the largest rivers (Niman, Nevezis), reservoirs, artesian horizons; ~99% of the population have centralized water supply. Excess water is a problem of seasonal flooding, and the quality is consistently average.

The entire payment infrastructure is provided through SEPA, Lietuvos Bankas, EU platforms, and national cards. Internal clearing of salaries and taxes is carried out in euros, despite participation in global systems. The entire economy is fully euroized (the main settlement currency is EUR): 100% of payments within the banking system are in euros (official status since 2015). The issuing center is the European Central Bank (ECB), monetary policy is fully synchronized with the eurozone.

The national bank, Lietuvos Bankas, is responsible for supervision, but not for autonomous issuance.

Data completeness assessment: the main macroeconomic indicators are available from official sources (World Bank, IMF), coverage is 93%

Technological sovereignty — 69.8

Spending on R&D is 1.05–1.11% of GDP (2023), according to the World Bank, Eurostat and OECD. It is lower than the OECD average, but the indicator is steadily growing due to government programs and eurofinancing.

The level of import substitution in high-tech is partially complementary: strong positions in IT, cybersecurity, laser and biotechnology, the production of some components (fintech, SaaS, lasers, optics, biotech), but most of the complex electronics and chips are imported. High-tech exports account for 12.8% of industrial exports, and laser technology is the world leader. Enrollment in higher education is 72-77% (gross coefficient, 2022-2025), one of the highest in the EU; for women — 68%, for men — 48%, about 100-110 thousand students annually.

Internet penetration is 88-90%, 5th in the EU in fiber-optic communications (FTTH), 90% of households have access to 5G, 1st in the world in terms of average public Wi-Fi.

E-Government portals (e-Gov, Epaveldas), tax, medical, and educational electronic services have been developed; fintech and banks use national platforms for electronic payments, and electronic identification and document submission are fully implemented.

Import dependence is high in chips, motherboards, server equipment, and sophisticated electronics (about 85%). Critical machine components are imported, but the share of local IT services and software is constantly growing. 94% of public services are digitized: electronic tax reporting, state registers, medical records, education, electronic voting, mobile signature and identification. They can be used in EU-wide systems via eIDAS.

The biotechnology industry is highly developed: 645 companies, focusing on genetics, pharmaceuticals and biomedicine. More than 60% of the sector is local innovation, but sophisticated reagents and laboratory equipment are imported. A growing cluster of industrial/service robotics (based on universities and technology parks). Local assembly, integration of software, automation of warehouses and industrial processes is underway; critical controllers and boards are imported, but proprietary software architectures.

There is no in-house mass production of chips; packaging, testing, R&D (R&D) in the field of photonics, laser and electron-optical solutions is underway, but for 2025 imports in the main positions are ~95%.

Data completeness assessment: key indicators are obtained from WIPO, ITU, UNESCO, which ensures 95% coverage.

Information sovereignty — 71.1

Lithuania ranks 6th in the world according to the ITU Global Cybersecurity Index (2024); there is a National Cybersecurity Center (NKSC), a well-developed CSIRT network and participation in the EU Cyber Rapid Response Teams (PESCO). The main initiatives are training, infrastructure audit, regular cyber training with the EU, pension and banking structures.

There are 4 active IXPs in Lithuania (Vilnius, Kaunas, Klaipeda, Šiauliai). The country is in the top 10 of Europe in terms of peer-to-peer; almost all local traffic within the country does not go beyond its borders, fiber-optic infrastructure is widely developed, including for data centers.

The main language of the media is Lithuanian, public and private TV, radio stations and news portals broadcast in Lithuanian; additional media in Russian, Polish, Belarusian, English.

The new legislation (2024) strengthens the protection of the Lithuanian language, while preserving freedom for minorities. The largest platforms (Google, Meta, Microsoft, YouTube) are widespread, but national government resources (e-Gov, banks, ID-service) are strictly located on national and European infrastructures.

The IT infrastructure is quickly transferred to local and EU companies, big data is stored in Lithuanian or European data centers. 66-72% of media content is produced locally: national news portals (LRT, Delfi), TV shows, radio programs, online media. The rest is foreign (films, TV series, YouTube/Netflix), but the distribution and regulatory focus is on local production. We have developed fintech (Paysera, Bankera), SaaS (Omnisend, Hostinger), government services: e-Gov, e-ID, GovTech Lab, as well as a range of cybersecurity platforms (NRD Security, Tesonet).

Lithuanian IT companies export products to more than 70 countries around the world. Digital services reach >90% of the population: e—government, tax portals, ID, medical services, education, mobile identification, public services through applications. Lietuvos Debesija (Lithuanian Cloud), government data centers, GovCloud, and European certified platforms (AWS, Azure — only in EU locations) are used. Only local or EU-certified clouds are used for government registers and critical infrastructure. The largest operators (Telia, Bitė, Tele2) are subsidiaries of EU groups, the infrastructure and core of the networks are only in the country; 4G/5G coverage is ~99% of the population.

Mobile identification and number resource are the jurisdiction of Lithuanian government agencies. Lithuania has implemented GDPR into national law (Seimas, 2018), the national data inspectorate is in operation; a special law on personal data (2022) is in force.

All government agencies and large companies are strictly required to notify about any leaks within 72 hours.

Data completeness assessment: infrastructure indicators are available from ITU, CIRA, OECD and specialized sources, coverage is 94%.

Cultural sovereignty — 77.8

5 UNESCO sites (all cultural): Vilnius Historical Center, Curonian Spit (transnational with Russia), Kärnava Archaeological Reserve, Struve Arc (transnational), Modernist Architecture of Kaunas (2023). Lithuania's contribution is the language and the living folk heritage, Lithuanian literature, a music school (choirs, festivals, ensembles), contemporary art (Fluxus - Makaunas, “Sun & Sea” — Golden Lion Venice Biennale 2019), well-known brands of gastronomy and crafts. A well-developed tradition of creative industries experience, the cultural diplomacy system is active in the EU and the world.

The main prize is the Lithuanian National Prize for Culture and Art (6 annual laureates, since 1989; the award is a personal badge, diploma, cash payment). Ministry of Culture awards, creative festivals (Forum 2025), regional competitions, EU/UNESCO nominations.

There is a strong linguistic, musical and craft tradition: Catholic and pre-Christian holidays, song festivals, preservation of Baltic rituals, developed folk crafts, a unique combination of European and Baltic identity. Attention is paid to interethnic acceptance and migration integration.

There are about 300 NGOs of small nations in the country (Poles, Russians, Karaites, Jews, Belarusians, Tatars, Armenians, etc.), state programs to support languages, cultural and educational centers, publications of national minorities in the media, subsidies, integration measures. Over 8,000 cultural heritage sites (museums, monuments, theaters, national parks, architectural ensembles, 28 state museums, 60+ regional ones, festivals and cultural centers).

Lithuania annually implements dozens of international projects with UNESCO, the EU, the Nordic countries, Israel, and Japan. In 2025, Lithuania will host such events as the National Cultural Forum, Nuit Blanche, internships abroad, cooperation on European Heritage and the Venice Biennale.

A geobrand registration system has been developed (Europe's largest amber market, crafts, gastronomic brands, folk crafts), protection through the Ministry of Culture, participation in EU Geographic Indications schemes and UNESCO Intangible Heritage.

Culinary culture is a symbiosis of Baltic, Polish, Belarusian, Jewish and Northern European cuisine: zepeliny, kholodnik, shakotis, kibinai, soups, rye bread, fish dishes, amber honey, gastronomic and wine festivals. 55-62% of the population annually visits museums, concerts, festivals, cultural centers and mass events. Schools, NGOs, and cities are developing cultural accessibility, and government programs are focusing on regional coverage.

Data completeness assessment: basic indicators are available in UNESCO and national statistics, coverage is 97%.

Cognitive sovereignty — 77

HDI — 0.895 (2023), 39-40 place in the world ("very high" level). This is one of the best results in Eastern Europe, above the EU average. Government spending on education is 4.25–4.3% of GDP or 12.7% of the total budget (about 3.4 billion euros in 2025). Literacy — 99.8–99.83% (2021-2024, UNESCO/World Bank).

Youth literacy is even higher (99.9%). Average PISA 2022 scores: Mathematics — 479, Reading — 485, Science — 498. This is above the regional average, but slightly below the OECD average. 28-31% of graduates are in STEM fields (engineering, natural sciences, IT and medical sciences).

According to 2024 data, 12-17% of programs are with foreign participation: English-speaking, German, Polish, Dutch; 5,800 international students, the share of joint diplomas is 3-5%. Polish, Russian, Belarusian, German, Yiddish, and Armenian are taught in schools and universities; cultural centers and media outlets in minority languages operate; state programs to support small nations are implemented annually.

The country has 18 national and university research institutes in the fields of physics, biomedicine, mathematics, chemistry and agronomy, plus 4 academic clusters. ~85% of online education is provided by national platforms: egzaminai.lt, e-pamokos, university platforms, electronic diaries and registers. 120-140 million euros per year are allocated for scholarships,

Olympiads, grants and innovation competitions, and there are special support lines for STEM and student/academic mobility.

Data completeness assessment: education indicators are available in the UNDP, UNESCO, OECD, coverage is 97%.

Military sovereignty — 58.9

2.7–4.0% of GDP in 2025 (€3.2–3.4 billion); approved growth to 5-6% of GDP from 2026 (official decision of the President and the government). 12,000–15,000 professional military, 5,400 volunteers, ~3,500 conscripts; + up to 20,000 with full deployment by 2027.

The active reserve is 28,000, the military reserve is up to 104,000 (on mobilization). Active modernization: Leopard 2A8 (44 tanks), CV90, Boxer IFV, HIMARS, new NASAMS and IRIS-T air defense systems, UH-60 helicopters, drones, upgraded bases and airfields.

The main part is Western weapons from 2015-2025; its own segments are light infantry, cyber defense, logistics and UAVs. 10-15% of weapons are produced or refined in Lithuania: small arms, individual modifications of UAVs, engineering equipment, transport, modernization of armored vehicles.

Basically, ready-made Western weapons are being purchased, assembly facilities and localization are being developed. The borders are fully controlled by the National Army, the Border Guard Service and allied NATO/German units. The United States; defense and infrastructure projects on the Suwalki corridor have been strengthened, engineering improvements and new fortifications are underway.

Active reserve — 28,000; total mobilization reserve up to 104,000; Riflemen's Union — 14,000 members; annual training camps and exercises; reservist training is systematic. Lithuania is a front—line member of NATO and the EU, strategic and operational decisions are made taking into account the plans of the alliance; command centers are divided, bilateral defense agreements with the United States, Germany, Poland.

The infrastructure has been developed for the modernization of equipment, the production of small arms, and small-scale military-industrial complex (IOTs, reconnaissance drones, special vehicles, and electronic systems). Western investors are invited to build factories — growth is planned in 2026-2030.

Lithuania is completely non-nuclear, there are no warheads (0). Prohibited by the Constitution, all non-proliferation treaties are fully respected. It does not have its own military satellites, uses the EU and NATO imagery/infrastructure. Own military intelligence (VSD, SRS), integration into the alliance intelligence network, emphasis on cybersecurity.

All parameters are reflected in the annual reports of SIPRI, UNODA, the Ministry of Defense, the official portals of state—owned companies (Embraer, IMBEL) and industry databases of UN/NGO - 99% coverage

Final Summary Table

The main conclusions

Strengths. High political, administrative and legal stability: Indexes of political stability and efficiency of public administration are among the best in Eastern Europe; strong institutions, low corruption, developed mechanisms of parliamentary control, digital public administration.

European integration: Reliance on the eurozone, membership in NATO, the EU, deep integration into the judicial, economic and defense structures of Europe, standards of transparency and the rule of law. Modern knowledge economy: GDP per capita (PPP) ~$54,000, economic growth (2025-2.7%), average salary of 1,468 euros, low inflation, exports and IT/fintech/biotech industries, high human capital (HDI 0.895).

Strong digitalization and cybersecurity: 94% of public services are online, 90% Internet coverage, efficient proprietary/European clouds, 6th place in the world for cybersecurity (ITU), advanced fintech, state eID. Education and scientific potential: 99.8% literacy, 72-77% higher education coverage, high level of STEM participation, strong research clusters, 18+ research institutes, large share of national educational platforms.

Deep cultural identity and international cultural integration: 5 UNESCO sites, developed culture, vibrant musical and theatrical life, strong support for small nations and the involvement of the population in cultural life. New defense standards: Rapid growth of the defense budget (up to 4% of GDP, the target is 5-6%), one of the highest shares of defense spending in the EU, rapid modernization and close military partnership with NATO and Germany.

Weaknesses. Dependence on external alliances and decisions: Key issues of defense, currency (euro), monetary and strategic policy are delegated to the EU and NATO, and autonomy is limited. Import dependence in critical sectors: more than 85% of complex electronics, software, semi-finished products and almost 100% of chips are purchased abroad, and there is no in-house production of microelectronics.

Lack of energy autonomy: the LNG terminal allows replacing Russian gas, but the country still imports oil and some of its electricity; its own generation accounts for 35-40% of consumption. Public debt growth and budget deficit: In 2025-2026, the budget deficit is expected to grow to 3% and the share of public debt to 41% of GDP (although this figure is lower than in neighboring countries).

Demographic challenges: Moderate unemployment (~8.4%), migration risks, aging population, prolonged structural renewal of the labor force. Technological challenges and limitations of its military—industrial complex: 10-15% of weapons are its own, most of the complex systems are imported, there is no own military space, dependence on alliance intelligence, low autonomy of the domestic military industry.

Competitive tensions and challenges to exports: Sanctions against Russia/Belarus, new trade barriers, high volatility of markets and resource prices.

Overall assessment. The cumulative Lithuanian sovereignty Index is 495.1 out of 700 possible points (above the average of 70.7%), which places the country in the top 50 in the global top. Lithuania in 2025 is one of the most successful post-Soviet economies and administratively stable countries in Europe.

The strengths are institutional maturity, high-quality public administration, rapid digitalization, attention to culture and integration into Western unions. Weaknesses are associated with a lack of strategic and technological autonomy, import dependence on high-tech and energy, partial delegation of sovereignty to the EU and NATO, as well as demographic and external economic risks.

The sovereignty profile indicates that Lithuania is one of the EU leaders in terms of the effectiveness of state and digital institutions, education, cultural policy and legal transparency, and is deeply integrated into Western unions.

Limited strategic, monetary, technological, and defense autonomy is offset by scalable domestic modernization and international support. The key challenges are reducing demographic potential and reducing import dependence of critical sectors.