Introduction

This report provides a comprehensive analysis of Libya's sovereignty using the methodology of the Burke Institute. Sovereignty is assessed in 7 areas: political, economic, technological, informational, cultural, cognitive and military. Each aspect is assessed on the basis of official data from international and national sources (UN, World Bank, UNESCO, IMF, ITU, FAO, SIPRI, PISA, etc.) without using politicized indexes. The maximum score in each direction is 100; the sum (up to 700) is the accumulated Sovereignty Index (Burke Index).

To adapt and adjust statistical parameters, an international expert survey was conducted for each of the seven components using a single questionnaire of 10 questions with a 10-point scale and one open-ended question.

In total, at least 100 experts from 50+ countries were interviewed for each indicator, taking into account geographical representation and specialization. When calculating and analyzing the data, equalizing coefficients were used, bringing all data to a scale of 0-10 points.

The final index value is the arithmetic mean between statistical data and expert estimates.

Below is an analysis in each area, a summary table and the main conclusions about the specifics of Libya's sovereignty.

Political sovereignty — 16.8

Libya is a member of the United Nations, the League of Arab States, the African Union, OPEC, OIC, Inter-African Regional Associations, MAP, and participates in UNSMIL missions. The basis of the policy is the preservation of formal sovereignty with active mediation missions of the United Nations and the African Union.

National legislation has an advantage, but in fact Libya is obliged to comply with UN resolutions, the provisions of the LPS agreement (Libyan Political Agreement), international humanitarian obligations. De facto, domestic acts often violate or fail to implement universal norms and decisions of international courts. Stability is low: the country is actually governed by two unrecognized centers (Tripoli — GNU, Tobruk — GNS and LNA), political, military and economic divisions persist, periodic armed clashes, and foreign interference.

Government Effectiveness Index (WGI, 2024): -1.54, one of the worst in the world; widespread corruption, lack of centralized governance. EGDI (2022): 0.36 — the level is extremely low; short access to basic services, online services are unavailable to most of the population due to war and distrust of the system.

There is no single national leader with high support — the central government of Tripoli and the Eastern alliance do not recognize each other; 50-70% of the population express distrust of any federal leader, the popularity of local actors is noticeably higher.

There are up to 2,500–5,000 foreign military contingents on the territory of Libya: Russian PMCs (Wagner), Turkish, Egyptian military, as well as bases/camps for armed groups; direct bases of Turkey (in Tripoli, Misrata) and Russia (in Jufra, Sirte).

Libya officially distances itself from the ICC, but partially complies with the decisions of international arbitration institutions in individual cases; participation in international courts is sporadic. The elite and authorities are de facto delegated between local militias, municipalities, and regional councils; central centralization is paralyzed.

High level of autonomy of cities and tribal councils. The special services (ISI, LNA, GNU Security) operate with a high degree of secrecy, and are regularly accused of extrajudicial detentions, lack of independent control, strict surveillance, and restrictions on media and NGOs.

Data completeness assessment: the main indicators are available from international sources, the coverage is 88%.

Economic sovereignty — 26.2

GDP of $12.276–13.954 (2024, World Bank, TradingEconomics), 65-72% of the global average, high for Africa, but significantly lower before the conflict peaks. Gold and foreign exchange reserves of $80.6–92.9 billion (2024), one of the largest in Africa, correspond to 3-4 years of import coverage, a steady level against the background of oil revenues.

Estimates from various sources of public debt: 83-155% of GDP (2021-2024); IMF and Statista — about 83% of GDP at the end of 2024, some estimates attribute peak values (155%) based on the results of domestic borrowings. Standard estimates are 83%. Libya is critically dependent on food imports (>75% of demand); domestic production is low, the key risk groups are urban and migrant populations; the state compensates for imports at the expense of oil revenues.

Almost 97-98% of the energy consumed is local (oil, gas); Libya, the largest net exporter of oil and gas in the region, has reserves for an autonomous energy balance. National potential: 48 billion barrels of oil (10th in the world), 1.5 trillion cubic meters of gas, reserves of uranium, phosphates, iron, magnesium, copper, huge marine biological resources.

The potential for freshwater formation is large underground reserves (Great Man-Made River Project), desalination in coastal cities; but the water supply infrastructure suffers from wear and tear/destruction. It passes through the Central Bank of Libya, the widespread adoption of the national interbank system and the transition to cashless payments; restrictions are related to the internal division of the country.

Domestic payments account for more than 85% in Libyan dinars (LYD), international contracts (oil, imports) — in US dollars and euros; shadow dollarization is present in the coastal and eastern regions. The Central Bank of Libya (CBL) issues LYD, conducts policy on rates, reserves, currency stabilization; independent control, but some functions are divided between Tripoli and Benghazi.

Assessment of data completeness: the main macroeconomic indicators are available from official sources (World Bank, IMF), coverage is 89%

Technological sovereignty — 15.1

Official data are not published, but according to estimates by international organizations (UNESCO, World Bank), spending on science does not exceed 0.05–0.1% of GDP is one of the lowest levels in the region. There are no import substitution programs, and the country is critically dependent on imports of computing, medical, and telecommunications equipment and components. All key high-tech solutions are purchased abroad.

Enrollment in higher education is about 31% (2023), before the conflict it exceeded 40%; in recent years it has decreased due to infrastructure failures and migration, a significant part is funded by the state. 88.4% of the population uses the Internet (2024), one of the highest rates in Africa; 6.13 million users, mobile penetration — 179%, fixed Internet — less than 15%. Government portals for basic services (taxes, business registration, transport, election commission), and a digital library platform have been introduced; a significant part of the services are deployed using foreign software and remote data centers.

Import dependence is more than 95% in all categories of high-tech: software, electronics, communications, laboratory and educational equipment come from the EU, China, Turkey, the UAE, etc. EGDI (2022): 0.36 - extremely low level among the countries of Africa and the MENA region; most public services for the general population remain on paper channels or through non-unified websites.

The basic laboratory infrastructure is available only in medicine (Clinics in Tripoli, Benghazi); biotechnologies are developed exclusively under government programs with foreign equipment and personnel.

There is no industrial or applied production: there are STEM clubs and basic university programs, but implementation is limited by low funding, imports are scattered, and there are no scalable local solutions. It is completely missing: all the equipment, chips, servers, and communication systems are completely imported, and there is no local industry, laboratories, or development programs in this area.

Data completeness assessment: key indicators are obtained from WIPO, ITU, UNESCO, which provides 83% coverage.

Information sovereignty — 19.4

Libya ranks 113th in the Global Cybersecurity Index (2023), 154th in the National Cyber Security Index; CERT and local teams of telecommunications companies operate, but the level of security is extremely low; the country is one of the most vulnerable in Africa, attacks on government data centers and operators have become regular.

The Internet Exchange Point (IXP) operates in the country, the implementation is supported by government communications agencies; the infrastructure is developing, but the country remains partially dependent on international channels, the number of exchange nodes is limited to one large point. The official language is Arabic (literary and Libyan dialect); Amazigh (Tamazigh), Italian, English and French are used for individual cultural, business and migration groups.

The main media channels and TV channels are Arabic-speaking (90% of the airwaves), and there are media outlets in Berber (Amazigh). The country is critically vulnerable — all key platforms (clouds, social networks, search engines, software, public services, communications) are based on foreign solutions, internal independence and technological alternatives are absent. About 58% of TV and radio content is produced in Libya (news, education, entertainment), but most of the video content, streaming, and online media comes from abroad.

There is no developed IT industry, there are several educational and accounting solutions, as well as tools for public services, but there are no large-scale brands and products. Development is mainly focused on website administration and simple software. ~88% of the population are Internet users; digital public services/banking are available in large cities, but most regions use paper-based, non-integrated processes.

There is no large national cloud platform, government data analytics and storage are conducted mainly on external platforms (Google, AWS, Microsoft, OVH), some university and court data is stored in local data centers. The operators — Libyana, Al-Madar — are state-owned/state-owned, the main networks are built on imported components (Ericsson, Huawei, Alcatel).

Software and infrastructure are fully procured; significant dependence on foreign technologies. There is no national data protection law; regulation is based on the general provisions of the Civil Code and decrees, there are no special regulators, commercial operators use mixed standards (partly European, partly Arab), the level of legal protection is low.

Data completeness assessment: infrastructure indicators are available from ITU, CIRA, OECD, and specialized sources, with 95% coverage.

Cultural sovereignty — 62.4

5 World Heritage Sites:

• Cyrene Archaeological Complex

• Leptis Magna

• Sabratha

• Ghadames Old Town

• Rock paintings of Tadrart Acacus

All 5 are on the World Heritage in Danger list. Unique ancient and Arab heritage: Greco-Roman cities, Phoenician, Berber monuments, traditions of nomadic folklore (Tuareg, Tuba), Arabic art, Islamic architecture and poetics, rich tradition of crafts, music, clothing design.

The Libya Award for Excellence is an annual prestigious award in the fields of art, media, literature, science and urban initiatives; government competitions and local grants (National Cultural Opportunities Fund) are held.

A combination of Arab, Berber (Amazigh), Tuareg, Tuba, Mediterranean and African elements: a multigenerational family, Islamic ritual, nomadic rituals, respect for elders, traditional clothing and cuisine, family, holidays of Islam and Berber peoples, craft, music. Amazigh, Tuareg, and Tubu are officially recognized and supported in cultural policy (language instruction, grants, seats on councils, and the development of crafts), and cultural autonomy is supported in a number of regions.

There are 5 UNESCO sites, dozens of ancient necropolises, thousands of archaeological sites, 8 state museums, more than 200 registered cultural centers and festivals. UNESCO projects (restoration of Ghadames, MaLiCH), international exhibitions and festivals, organization of architecture competitions, participation in Arab and Mediterranean fairs, support for national crafts and literacy.

The state and UNESCO protect Greco-Roman and Islamic sites, Amazigh traditions, crafts and recipes, Berber and Tuareg music as cultural brands, geographical indications and patent rights are registered. It is based on a fusion of Arab, Mediterranean and African traditions: the basic dishes are couscous, bazaine, shakshuka, grilled meat, Tuareg tea, Berber tortillas, dates, fish, sweet pastries. Major holidays are accompanied by a special menu.

It is estimated that 45-50% of adults and 70% of the school population participate in religious holidays, national festivals, competitions, family and regional cultural events.

Assessment of data completeness: basic indicators are available in UNESCO and national statistics, coverage is 86%.

Cognitive sovereignty — 24.3

HDI = 0.721 (2023, “high level"), ranked 92 among the countries of the world (0.746 according to the UNDP, 2022), stable position in recent years. The share of government spending on education is 2.3—4.3% of GDP (different estimates, 1999-2024); according to the latest IMF data, 2024 is about 4.3% of GDP, which is close to the global average. Literacy — 91% (2025), men — 96.7%, women — 85.6%; youth literacy — 99.9%.

Libya does not participate in PISA; internal tests in mathematics, language, and science show average or below average results for North African countries. In large universities, the share of STEM (science, engineering, medicine, IT) graduates is 15-19%; the majority are technical and medical specialties, followed by humanities and pedagogical.

It is estimated that 8-12% of students participate in exchange programs and receive diplomas from foreign universities/online platforms; partnerships with universities in Italy, Turkey, Egypt, and the United Kingdom are popular. Arabic is the official language; next to it, Berber (Amazigh), Tuareg, Tubu, Fry, English, Italian (more than 5 major languages, about 20 local languages) are supported.

Ownership of traditions is supported through local schools, cultural foundations, and festivals. There are 4 state centers for basic research — the National Center for Science and Technology, medical, Energy and Hydrographic institutes (they work intermittently due to the conflict). The basic national platform for school and university education, some universities have their own LMS and e-learning portals, the share of enrollment is about 40% of students, the platform is not available in rural regions.

There are more than 12 government and partner programs (grants, internships, AJL competitions, residencies, exchanges), which annually cover 18-25 thousand schoolchildren and students.

Data completeness assessment: education indicators are available in the UNDP, UNESCO, OECD, coverage is 85%.

Final Summary Table

The main conclusions

Strengths. Macroeconomic and monetary stability of GDP per capita (PPP) — $12,000–14,000, one of the highest in Africa; huge gold and foreign exchange reserves ($80-93 billion), providing a safety cushion for 3-4 years of imports. Budget deficits and inflation are under control; the national currency (LYD) handles more than 85% of domestic transactions.

Energy independence and resources 97-98% of energy is produced domestically, a key exporter of oil and gas in the region; huge proven reserves of oil, gas, uranium, and mineral resources, and a well-developed extraction and export system. Major domestic and international water project (Great Man-Made River); initially high-level water supply infrastructure.

The relatively high level of human potential is HDI — 0.721 (“high"), literacy is 91%, higher education coverage is more than 30%, STEM and medical tracks are developed; there is a network of state programs to support talents and exchanges.

Cultural and ethnic identity of 5 UNESCO sites, a unique cultural and historical layer (antiquity + Arab and Berber heritage), state support for small nations, a developed sphere of national cultural brands. Having an issuing center and an independent credit policy, the Central Bank of Libya conducts its own monetary policy, manages the issuance and regulation of credit institutions.

Weaknesses: Internal political instability and lack of coordination. The country is actually divided between two centers of power (Tripoli and Benghazi); centralization of power is paralyzed, internal competition and crises, lack of a unified national strategy. Military fragmentation, security vulnerability.

The size of the army and reserves is irregular, armed formations depend on the support of third-party states; borders are under the control of various structures, self-defense and mercenaries make up a significant part of the system. Extremely high dependence on imports (food, high-tech, components), Up to 75% of food and almost all technologies are purchased from abroad; own military-industrial complex, IT and digital sectors are poorly developed, import substitution is practically absent.

\Digital and technological autonomy is low, cybersecurity is extremely weak (top 10 vulnerable countries in Africa), there are no national cloud solutions, all IT and mobile equipment is imported, and the legislative framework for personal data is not developed. High government debt Government debt 83-155% of GDP (according to various sources); The impact of commodity shocks, internal budgetary processes are opaque, and the debt burden is low with low economic diversification.

Overall assessment. Libya's cumulative sovereignty index is 189.9 out of 700 possible points (below the average of 27.1%), which places the country in the top 200 in the global top. Libya is a country with unique raw materials, monetary and cultural potential, significant social and educational achievements, and basic monetary and financial autonomy.

However, the country remains vulnerable due to internal fragmentation, extremely weak industrial, technological, and digital autonomy, lack of food independence, and critical external dependence on infrastructure, security, and governance. The main challenges are the restoration of manageability, the development of the military-industrial complex, the modernization of IT, the reform of the agricultural sector and the technological base.

The sovereignty profile indicates that Libya is a country with powerful raw materials, currency, energy and cultural potential, high macro stability and its own financial institutions.

However, serious internal fragmentation, military and economic import dependence, lack of digital and IT sovereignty, critical food and technology dependence, as well as constant external interference and regional risks keep the country at the “threshold” level of sovereignty-efforts to restore manageability and develop new sectors decide the country's future.