Introduction

This report provides a comprehensive analysis of Lebanese sovereignty using the methodology of the Burke Institute. Sovereignty is assessed in 7 areas: political, economic, technological, informational, cultural, cognitive and military. Each aspect is assessed on the basis of official data from international and national sources (UN, World Bank, UNESCO, IMF, ITU, FAO, SIPRI, PISA, etc.) without using politicized indexes. The maximum score in each direction is 100; the sum (up to 700) is the accumulated Sovereignty Index (Burke Index).

To adapt and adjust statistical parameters, an international expert survey was conducted for each of the seven components using a single questionnaire of 10 questions with a 10-point scale and one open-ended question.

In total, at least 100 experts from 50+ countries were interviewed for each indicator, taking into account geographical representation and specialization. When calculating and analyzing the data, equalizing coefficients were used, bringing all data to a scale of 0-10 points.

The final index value is the arithmetic mean between statistical data and expert estimates.

Below is an analysis in each area, a summary table and the main conclusions about the peculiarities of Lebanese sovereignty.

Political sovereignty — 28.6

Lebanon is a member of the United Nations (since 1945), the League of Arab States, the Non—Aligned Movement, the IMF, the World Bank, the WTO (observer), the UN Security Council (twice a non-permanent member), the Francophonie, the League of Islamic Cooperation and other key international structures.

Lebanon adheres to a dualistic principle: international treaties must be ratified by Parliament and then integrated into the national right. However, the decisions of international courts and the UN Security Council, as well as the mandates of UNIFIL, are legally taken into account and have a direct impact on government policy, especially in security zones.

From 2024-2025, there is a relatively "fragile stabilization": a president has been elected (Joseph Aoun), a new government has been appointed (Prime Minister Nawaf Salam), and a broad coalition is being formed with Hezbollah's antagonists. Ethnic-sectarian and political tensions persist, local protests are possible, but unlike in 2021-2023, there are no signs of a systemic collapse.

The government efficiency index remains low: in 2024-2025, about -1.09 (WGI, minus corresponds to low efficiency), a position in the fifth-ten in the MENA region. Lebanon is demonstrating moderate legislative renewal, but real reforms are stalling. According to the UN (2022) EGDI — 0.5301 (131 out of 193 places), no significant updates have been recorded by 2025.

The main public services have been digitized in fragments, and the national infrastructure of the digital government is limited by the crisis. President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam enjoy moderate confidence following the results of the post-crisis reforms: 47-53% approve of the activities of the head of state (support is strong in the army and secular circles, low among the pro-Iranian - Hеzbollah). There is no stable unified consensus.

There are no foreign military bases on the territory of the country (for example, the USA, France, the Russian Federation, etc.), the main foreign military presence is the UNIFIL mission (UN, 10 thousand people, the status of a temporary international operation).

Lebanon has not signed the Rome Statute (ICC), but cooperates with international courts ad hoc and respects the decisions of international arbitration and legal institutions within the framework of relevant agreements. Active cooperation with the UN Security Council, the International Court of Justice and UNESCO.

The country remains formally unitary, but the real distribution of power is based on ethnic—sectarian and political quotas; governors and mayors have autonomy in local matters, critical decisions are made at the national level (through a conciliation mechanism).

Formally, the special services (the General Security Service, Military Intelligence) are subordinate to the Council of Ministers and parliamentary control; however, in practice transparency is low and political/ethno-sectarian particularism plays a serious role. Since 2025, separate steps have been taken to establish a supranational anti-corruption inspectorate.

Data completeness assessment: the main indicators are available from international sources, the coverage is 92%.

Economic sovereignty — 17.9

According to the forecast of Trading Economics, GDP per capita (PPP) in 2025 is approximately $10,764, other estimates (World Economics) are $13,724, and the value for 2023 is $11,330 (World Bank). According to the central bank and the World Bank, reserves for the summer of 2025 amount to about $11-11.5 billion in currency + $30.3–30.5 billion in gold.

Total international reserves with gold are $33.3 billion (as of the end of 2024). Lebanon's public debt in 2025 is one of the highest in the world: 160% according to official estimates and up to 126% according to World Economics (GDP PPP), by the end of 2025 it will be at least 154-160%.

Lebanon is vulnerable: the country imports up to 80% of its food, and world ratings assess its status as "unstable" (2024-2025, FAO, Economist). There remains a shortage in a number of indicators, especially in grain and fuel. It is practically non-existent: it imports more than 90% of energy resources (oil, gas, coal), and dependence on supplies from abroad remains one of the main vulnerabilities of the economy.

Traditionally low: deposits of phosphates, cement, limestone; own offshore oil and gas exploration is progressing slowly, many wells have not yet been developed. The total quantity per capita is comparatively higher than in many countries in the Middle East, but the quality and seasonality of supplies remain a problem, especially against the background of infrastructure degradation and pollution of water bodies.

It has its own national payment system (Banque du Liban, national cards, a number of local providers and integration with international platforms); all significant transactions go through the central bank. The entire current settlement and tax system is denominated in Lebanese pounds (LBP), but the share of payments and deposits in dollars remains very high (especially in wholesale and foreign trade — up to 70% of transactions/deposits in foreign currency by 2025).

The issuing center is Banque du Liban, which implements an independent monetary policy (although it is de facto dependent on agreements with the IMF and external creditors).

Since 2024, a new policy has been in effect: direct financing of the government is prohibited, emission financing is limited, and restructuring of obligations has begun.

Data completeness assessment: the main macroeconomic indicators are available from official sources (World Bank, IMF), coverage is 90%

Technological sovereignty — 27.4

R&D expenditures are estimated at 0.23–0.28% of GDP (according to World Bank/OECD data in recent years; there is no significant increase in 2025). Import substitution is undeveloped — in-house production of IT, electronics, microelectronics and high-tech devices is extremely limited; imports prevail (in 2023, high-tech exports amount to $98 million, while imports are much higher), there is support for agro- and fintech startups, but there is no systemic industrial base. Tertiary (higher) enrollment is 60.17% (2023), one of the leaders among Arab countries; about 60% of students study at private universities.

By the end of 2024, Internet penetration ranges between 76 and 86% (according to international sources, including Statista and ITU), and a significant portion of households have broadband access.

National projects on digitalization of public services and the launch of the national digital ID, e-government, AUB Global and a number of educational platforms are being implemented; development has been significantly accelerated since 2023 (Digital Transformation Strategy 2020-2030 project, DPI launch and government investments in artificial intelligence in 2024-2025).

Almost total: the vast majority of high-tech (microchips, processors, mobile equipment, all types of communications, basic software) is imported from the EU, USA, China and Turkey; domestic production is low.

Digitalization of the public sector is under active implementation: a number of basic services (taxes, justice, social benefits) are available online, the full transition to electronic IDs started in 2025 with the support of the World Bank; the condition is below the global average, but with accelerated development. The country has several research centers (at universities), successful Biotech programs (AUB, Saint Joseph), but there is practically no large national bioindustry, high import dependence on equipment and genetic materials.

Training and individual developments are underway at universities (especially the American University of Beirut, Lebanese University), but there are no own production facilities or commercial robots; the sector is present at the level of startups and educational laboratories.

There are no large-scale production facilities of their own, there are no projects for the production of processors, components, chips, the sector is completely import-dependent, local electronics is limited to the household and manual segment.

Data completeness assessment: key indicators are obtained from WIPO, ITU, UNESCO, which provides 93% coverage.

Information sovereignty — 41.2

Lebanon is in Tier 4 (evolving countries) ITU Global Cybersecurity Index 2024, ranked 119th out of 165 countries; there is a national CERT/CSIRT member of the OIC-CERT since 2024. In 2025, the country took 2nd place at the ITU Global CyberDrill MENA for practical cyber defense, and a national response system is being developed. In 2025, OpenIX Beirut is launching in Lebanon — the first full-featured neutral IXP, 2 active IX (Beirut IX, OpenIX), 13.45% of traffic is processed locally, the share of local exchange tends to 70%.

This is significant progress after a long absence of a large-scale local Internet infrastructure. The main language of the media is the Lebanese dialect of Arabic (Levantine Arabic); news, entertainment, journalism and most television are conducted in it. Armenian, French, and English are also actively used, but the share of non-native content is falling.

Significant dependence on global platforms (Google, Meta, Microsoft, Amazon), but with the growth of national cloud and fintech solutions based on local startups; the introduction of OpenIX and national data centers reduces technological vulnerability. More than 50% of video and television production is produced locally, national radio stations and Internet platforms make up the majority of the total media environment, and television is the largest of the private Arab industries.

Their own startups are developing (Cedar Apps, Anghami, Berytech, Toters), and several IT companies are exporting software to the global market (especially fintech, streaming services, and lightweight enterprise solutions). The share of users of digital services exceeds 54% of the adult population (banking, public services and education); growth accelerated with the launch of electronic IDs (2025) and e-government projects.

The first data centers (Beirut datacenter, local clouds of IT companies) with state participation have been launched since 2024, and government data is being migrated to local cloud platforms.

Mobile operators (Touch, Alfa, Ogero, MTC) are managed by public and private entities under the control of MinCom; all the basic infrastructure is regulated by national law, but the equipment is almost entirely imported. In 2025, a draft new law on personal data is being discussed in parliament: the media and human rights activists demand that the norms be brought into line with GDPR (ES), criminal liability for criticism of the authorities be abolished, and censorship be eliminated.

In practice, data protection is limited, but legal innovations are expected in 2025-2026.

Data completeness assessment: infrastructure indicators are available from ITU, CIRA, OECD and specialized sources, coverage is 88%.

Cultural sovereignty — 65.7

Lebanon officially has 6 UNESCO World Heritage Sites: Baalbek, Byblos, Tyre, Anjar, Kadisha Valley and Cedar Forest of God, Rashid Karami International Fair (Tripoli). Lebanon is the historical homeland of the Phoenicians, the center of the alphabet, and major centers of ancient, Arabic, and Mediterranean culture. The country's contribution is the development of poetry, philosophy (Said Akl), architecture, dialogue between East and West, the spread of language and emigrant culture.

The Lebanese Elite Awards, the Beirut International Awards Festival (BIAF), film awards, an Art Salon, awards from the Ministry of Culture, and specialized industry awards operate in the country.

Lebanese cultural traditions are an interfaith and interethnic synthesis, strong communities, a high role of family and gastronomic lifestyle, expressed in Arabic, French, Armenian, Aramaic languages and religions. Holidays, rituals, musical and culinary traditions are of great importance. Lebanon officially recognizes and supports the Armenian, Syrian, Maronite, Druze, Aramaic, and several other minorities in political, cultural, and religious rights, and funds cultural centers, schools, festivals, and publications.

There are more than 35,000 monuments, about 300 archaeological and historical-architectural zones, and 34 cultural sites under enhanced UNESCO protection in 2024-2025. In 2025, Lebanon is represented at the Venice Biennale, supports projects with UNESCO, participates in Oscar International, organizes festivals through the Lebanese diaspora, cooperates with France, Brazil, and the United Nations.

A number of Lebanese brands — accessories, music, gastronomy - receive UNESCO protection and are marked in international ratings (for example, Cedars of Lebanon is a national brand). Culinary, textile, wine and tourism brands are actively supported by the state. The cuisine combines Arabic, Armenian, French, Persian and Mediterranean traditions; international brands are recognized — hummus, tabule, kibbe, manuush, etc., which are popular all over the world.

About 65-70% of the population is involved in cultural events: from family and social celebrations to festivals, theaters, galleries and clubs; special emphasis is placed on mass gastronomic and religious events.

Data completeness assessment: basic indicators are available in UNESCO and national statistics, coverage is 84%.

Cognitive sovereignty — 38.9

The HDI for 2025 is 0.752 (position No. 102 in the world, category "high development"). The average life expectancy is 77.8 years, the expected number of years of study is 11.7, and the average is 10.4 years. Government spending on education is 1.67% of GDP (2020; estimated at <2% of GDP in 2025), approximately 10% of all government spending.

Adult literacy is 95.3% (data for 2019-2024: men ~96%, women ~92%). Lebanon regularly participates in PISA, but the latest public results (for example, 2018) are significantly lower than the OECD average in mathematics, science and reading; there are no new data for 2022-2025 in open sources, the country is in the third group in the region.

The share of STEM graduates among universities is about 19-22% (according to the latest surveys of the Ministry of Education and large universities), the majority of STEM specialists are graduates of the American University of Beirut, the Lebanese American University and the University of Lebanon.

In the country's universities, up to 30% of the programs are in foreign languages (French, English), French- and English-speaking schools are active; the largest universities have international partner programs and double diplomas. Armenian, Syriac, Kurdish, Aramaic and a number of other languages and cultures (about 6 small nations) are recognized, there is state support for schools, cultural and religious centers, and funding for festivals, archives and museums.

There are at least 14 state and university institutes: the National Center for Scientific Research, the Institute of Applied Research at the University of Lebanon, and the AUB institutes, which are the main platforms for basic research. National platforms (Manara, the state educational base, a number of domestic LMS) — more than 70% of all mass online services for schools and universities are available in Arabic or French, integrated into the national system.

Educational grants, funding for STEM programs, competitions and scholarships for young scientists, teachers and gifted students are allocated. The total budget of state personnel support programs is up to $200 million per year (2025).

Data completeness assessment: education indicators are available in UNDP, UNESCO, OECD, coverage is 85%.

Military sovereignty — 21.5

Lebanon's military budget is 8.9% of GDP (2023-2025), which is the second highest in the world after Ukraine, ~$635 million, according to SIPRI and Trading Economics, a significant part of the spending is aid from the United States, the EU, and the United Nations. The total number of armed forces is 60,000 (active), 10,000 reservists, ~30,000 paramilitary units and paramilitaries (internal security, special services).

The weapons are mostly outdated: M60 tanks, T-55 tanks, American, French and Soviet-made armored vehicles, several new armored vehicles and UAVs. Air Force — Hawker Hunter, Mi-24, drones, few modern air defense systems. The update is being implemented thanks to foreign technical support (USA, France, Great Britain).

Its own production is limited: Lebanon produces small arms, ammunition, and conducts local repairs of armored vehicles and equipment, but for most key systems it depends on imports, donor support, and military assistance (more than 85% of equipment and systems are foreign—made).

Control is fully entrusted to the army and special forces; enhanced patrols are being implemented (the southern border is UNIFIED, the eastern and northern borders are reinforced against the infiltration of militants from Syria), there are modernized monitoring systems and border garrisons, local security forces on the demarcation line.

Reserve — 10,000 people, mobilization readiness ~ 40,000. Given the parallel paramilitary structures, up to 80,000 people can be called up in case of a crisis. Lebanon retains the status of a non-aligned country, receiving military assistance from the United States, France, the EU, and the United Nations, and also cooperates with UNIFIL (UN), but is not in formal military alliances; defense decisions are made by the government, and pressure is growing to consolidate the state's monopoly on weapons (the Hezbollah disarmament plan).

The military industry is extremely limited: the country produces small arms and ammunition; there are small factories for repairing armored personnel carriers/tanks and cooperation within the framework of "critical infrastructure", but there is no significant industrial base. Lebanon does not possess nuclear weapons, does not conduct nuclear research, and does not participate in nuclear weapons initiatives.

The stock of nuclear warheads is 0, the country is a party to the Non-Proliferation Treaty. There is no military space program; the satellites used are commercial and foreign (EUMETSAT, European), there is a national intelligence system under the control of the Ministry of Defense and special services (General Security Directorate, Army Intelligence, Internal Security Forces).

All parameters are reflected in the annual reports of SIPRI, UNODA, the Ministry of Defense, the official portals of state-owned companies (Embraer, IMBEL) and the UN/NGO industry databases - 86% coverage

Final Summary Table

The main conclusions

Strengths. High level of human development: HDI is 0.752, adult literacy is >95%, strong positions in higher education and high coverage of STEM specialists, a developed system of private universities.

Cultural heritage: 6 UNESCO sites, recognized festivals, awards, unique cuisine, active participation in international cultural projects, the great role of the diaspora. Diversity and openness of society: The rights and cultural autonomies of minorities, interfaith and multicultural dialogue, and support for the languages and cultures of small nations are recognized.

Development of digital services: The growth of Internet penetration (76-86%), national CERT, the launch of its own IXP, the first data centers, local fintech and media startups. Flexible foreign policy: Non-aligned status, policy of balance between regions and major powers, support for the army monopoly on weapons.

Weaknesses. The economic crisis and external debt: Government debt of 154-160% of GDP, balance of payments deficit, chronic dependence on currency and investments, high cost of living and infrastructural risks.

Energy and technological vulnerability: Dependence on energy imports (90%+), small in-house base for the production of equipment and digital solutions, limited R&D costs (~0.25% of GDP). Political instability: Regular changes of government, ethnic-sectarian conflicts, complex coexistence of the army and Hezbollah, lack of stable mechanisms of centralized control.

Limited military autonomy: The equipment is mostly outdated and imported, the own military industry is weak, there are no key security systems, there is no military space and nuclear technology.

Problems with infrastructure and social services: Weaknesses of the electric power industry, shortage of water, garbage, transport problems, unresolved number of environmental and urban challenges.

Overall assessment. The cumulative Lebanese sovereignty Index is 241.2 out of 700 possible points (below the average of 34.5%), which places the country in the 172nd place in the world top. Lebanon is a country with outstanding human, cultural, and innovative resources, a sustainable private sector, and advanced education.

At the same time, the prolonged economic and energy crisis, high external dependence, political turbulence and weak institutions of sovereignty and infrastructure require consolidation of society and support for reforms for long-term sustainability.

The sovereignty profile indicates that Lebanon's sovereignty is manifested in the preservation of political subjectivity, active State control over key decisions, the development of national institutions and attempts at diplomatic conflict resolution.

At the same time, continuing external threats, partial occupation of the south, internal political and confessional contradictions, as well as economic and technological dependence limit the fullness of the country's sovereignty and require further consolidation and institutional development.