Introduction

This report presents a comprehensive analysis of Latvia's sovereignty using the methodology of the Burke Institute. Sovereignty is assessed in 7 areas: political, economic, technological, informational, cultural, cognitive and military. Each aspect is assessed on the basis of official data from international and national sources (UN, World Bank, UNESCO, IMF, ITU, FAO, SIPRI, PISA, etc.) without using politicized indexes. The maximum score in each direction is 100; the sum (up to 700) is the accumulated Sovereignty Index (Burke Index).

To adapt and adjust statistical parameters, an international expert survey was conducted for each of the seven components using a single questionnaire of 10 questions with a 10-point scale and one open-ended question.

In total, at least 100 experts from 50+ countries were interviewed for each indicator, taking into account geographical representation and specialization. When calculating and analyzing the data, equalizing coefficients were used, bringing all data to a scale of 0-10 points.

The final index value is the arithmetic mean between statistical data and expert estimates.

Below is an analysis in each area, a summary table and the main conclusions about the specifics of Latvia's sovereignty.

Political sovereignty — 74.3

There is a permanent NATO Multinational Brigade presence in Latvia (3,500+ military personnel, Canadian command, Camp Labrie base, Adaži, new Selija facilities are being built, etc.). The contingent includes Canada, Great Britain, Germany, Spain and other allies, from 2026 the presence becomes "almost permanent".

Latvia's national law is consistent with international law, and the rule of law of the EU on fundamental issues is an axiom: legislation and judicial decisions of the EU and international courts (ECHR, Court of Justice of the EU). According to the Constitution — sovereignty, in practice — total European integration, regular discussion at specialized scientific conferences. Index of political stability — 0.59 (2023, WGI); 66-68 percentile worldwide.

The majority cabinet is generally stable above the average in the region, despite the coalition structure, regular government changes and debates around the budget, migration, and language policy. WGI Government Effectiveness — 0.92 (2023), 79th percentile globally, at the level of the best countries in Eastern Europe; efficiency of the state apparatus, low corruption, developed public sector. EGDI Index (UN 2022): 0.862, 27th place in the world; by 2025, the coverage of digital public services is 90%+, fully online identification, taxation, education.

The eParaksts (electronic signature), e-veselība (eHealth), and national electronic registers have been implemented. Trust in the national leadership is ~23-30% (polls 2024-2025); it varies from leader to leader. The main opposition claims are against the cabinet and individual ministries because of the reforms, the budget and the results in social policy. Latvia is integrated into the EU, NATO, the Eurozone, the UN, the OSCE, the IMF and other unions.

The issues of defense (joint command, NATO infrastructure), currency (euro), justice (EU Court/ECHR), sanctions and trade regulation are delegated — under the control of EU/NATO institutions. The country fully recognizes and implements the decisions of the EU Courts, the ECHR, and international arbitrations; it does not distance itself, but integrates judicial mechanisms into national practice.

According to the Constitution, it is a unitary state, there is autonomy of local governments (43 municipalities), budgetary and administrative decentralization; strategic decisions are made by the center, local authorities — transport, infrastructure, education. There is parliamentary control of the Sejm Commission, reporting by the special services (Satversmes aizsardzibas birojs, SAB), external audit, the Ombudsman and the courts.

Transparency is monitored by the EU — challenges are periodically noted: the growth of hybrid threats, debates around the disclosure of surveillance procedures, dilemmas between security and citizens' rights.

Data completeness assessment: the main indicators are available from international sources, the coverage is 98%.

Economic sovereignty — 62.6

GDP per capita (PPP) — $43,800–44,600 international dollars (2024-2025, World Bank, IMF, Trading Economics, Wikipedia). Reserves are $3.9–5.1 billion USD (January — July 2025, CEIC, Trading Economics, Statista), which covers about 2 months of imports. National debt — 44.5–47.2% of GDP (2024-2025, Ministry of Finance, CEIC, Eurostat, Trading Economics), forecast for 2026-48-49%.

Latvia provides self-sufficiency in basic foodstuffs (grain, meat, milk, fish, eggs), exports grain and dairy products to the EU; imports some vegetables and fruits. The risks are only due to weather anomalies. Electricity exports are lower than imports; the country depends on gas supplies (the main flow through the terminal in Klaipeda, Lithuania) and oil.

The share of own renewable energy sources is 41%; full oil and gas import, electric grids are synchronized with the EU. The main resources are peat, gypsum, gravel, dolomite, building materials, natural water, and small reserves of amber.

There is no production of oil and gas in industrial volumes. The country has abundant freshwater resources — more than 12,000 lakes, the Daugava, Gauja, Lielupe rivers, and artesian horizons; 99% of the population has constant access to clean water. The entire payment system is integrated into SEPA, and payments and transfers are cleared through the Bank of Latvia.

All internal operations and karting schemes are calculated in euros; national Issuers work in parallel with Visa/Mastercard. Euro — 100% of all official payments (the national currency was replaced in 2014; taxes, social benefits, salaries, interbank settlements are in euros only).

The Bank of Latvia (Latvijas Banka) is a non—issuing bank, the functions of supervision and regulation, all issues and key rates are the prerogative of the European Central Bank (ECB) within the eurozone.

Data completeness assessment: the main macroeconomic indicators are available from official sources (World Bank, IMF), coverage is 94%

Technological sovereignty — 72.4

R&D 0.74–0.76% of GDP (2021-2023, World Bank, Eurostat, OECD), about €120 million/year; no significant growth was recorded in 2025 — this is the lowest level among the Baltic States and one of the lowest in the EU. Import substitution in high-tech is low: production is possible in fintech, laser technologies, woodworking and food products; electronic components, chips, household appliances, software, AI are mainly imported, science and the production of basic components are restrained due to low investments.

The gross enrollment rate is 88-91% (2022-2025, UNESCO/World Bank data); about 83,000 students, 7% study at private universities; the indicator is one of the highest in the region, with a downward trend due to demographic problems. Internet penetration is 89-92%; top 5 in the EU for FTTH/B development (optics in each building), leading positions in 4G/5G coverage, high-quality public Wi-Fi, fast Internet in large cities.

Public services are developed (latvija.lv), tax and education portals, eSign, eHealth, banks (Citadele, Swedbank, SEB — localization), GovTech services; national electronic registries and mobile identification are implemented. Import dependence is 80-90% in electronics, chips, AI, server solutions, air conditioning and household appliances; the share of proprietary IT solutions and fintech products is growing, but integrated autonomy remains low.

Digitalization of public services — 87-90% of all contacts with government agencies are possible online: taxes, insurance, medical records, education, voting, registration, electronic licenses. Biotech is developed through euro financing and university clusters: there are local startups (about 90 campaigns), basic drugs, reagents, and equipment are imported; the sector is small, rapidly growing, and integrated with EU science and accelerators.

The robotics industry consists of local integrators and IT service companies (ABB, Baltec Robotics, Riga TechGirls, Startup House); its own R&D platform is weak, distribution solutions are based on imported components and open-source software. There are no fabs, mass R&D or full-cycle microelectronics; only minor R&D, assembly of sensors, IoT modules is possible; the entire large electronic base is imported (95-98%).

Data completeness assessment: key indicators are obtained from WIPO, ITU, UNESCO, which provides 93% coverage.

Information sovereignty — 68

Latvia is ranked 7th in the world by the ITU Cybersecurity Index. There is a national CERT center.LV with rapidly growing operational activity (incidents increased by ~25% per year), the latest Cybersecurity Law was adopted in 2024, and the mandatory Institute of Cybersecurity Manager, National Center (NCSC, since September 2024) was introduced.

There are 3 active IXPs in the country (Riga, Ventspils, etc.), one of the best indicators of peer-to-peer and Internet reservations in the region; almost all traffic is localized within the country. State—owned and major private media (news, TV, radio, websites) are in Latvian.

Starting in 2025, LSM (Latvijas Sabiedriskā Medijs) is a single non—profit company for managing Latvian-language content, Russian and other language products have been significantly reduced, and only Latvian remains on TV/radio.

There are multilingual segments on the Internet, but the national media focus is Latvian. Google, Meta, YouTube, Microsoft dominate the user segment. However, government services (taxes, e-health, eID, state registers) are hosted on EU/Latvian infrastructures. For key services, storage is required only in the EU.

64-68% of media content is locally produced: news aggregators (LSM, TV3, DELFI, NRA), radio programs, TV shows and film productions; the share of own news and journalism is constantly growing. There are national GovTech products (latvija.lv, eParaksts, eHealth), fintech companies, corporate SaaS/LaaS (Printify, Mintos, Scandiweb), initiatives in cybersecurity and big data processing are underway, export startups are operating.

88% of citizens regularly use state/ financial, tax, social, educational online services, their own. mobile identification, government payments, and e-voting. GovCloud Latvia, LMT Cloud, Tet data centers, integration with European clouds; national.

The services are hosted only in EU locations, for the Ministry of Internal Affairs/bases - only in Latvia. All operators (LMT, Tele2, Bite) are registered in Latvia/EU, 98% of the population have LTE/5G coverage, the frequency resource is controlled by the state passport, and the infrastructure is local. Since 2018, the EU GDPR has been fully implemented, and the national The regulator (DVI), a relevant cybersecurity law was adopted in 2024, and requirements for the appointment of a cybersecurity manager and mandatory auditing are introduced in 2025.

Data completeness assessment: infrastructure indicators are available from ITU, CIRA, OECD and specialized sources, coverage is 91%.

Cultural sovereignty — 76.5

There are 3 UNESCO sites in Latvia (all cultural): the Historical Center of Riga (1997), Kuldiga — Old Town (2023), and the Struve Arc (transnational, 2005). There are 3 more objects on the preliminary list. Latvia's contribution: the development of choral art (the Song and Dance Festival is a UNESCO Intangible Heritage site), the school of opera and academic music, folklore traditions, contributions to literature, Art Nouveau architecture, cultural festivals and artistic exports (cinema, contemporary art, Oscar-2025).

The country is one of Europe's leaders in the field of intangible heritage, a pioneer of international cultural exchanges. Major awards: Purvitis Prize (Purvitis Prize, for contemporary art, 2025 — awarded to Romanes Korovins); Latvijas Makslas Gada Balva (LMGB, National Art Prize); Balts’ Award (joint award with Lithuania for contribution to the Baltic culture).

The country preserves Baltic linguistic and cultural traditions: folk festivals (Ligo/Jan's Day), mythology, traditional singing and dancing, beer festivals, hats, ribbons, carved wooden products, national costumes, Independence Day.

High level of self-awareness and involvement of young people. The country has programs to support Russian-speaking, Polish, Belarusian, Ukrainian, Jewish and Libyan minorities: schools, mass media, cultural centers, project financing, consultations and integration platforms. More than 7,200 registered national monuments and cultural sites: museums, monuments, galleries, archaeological sites, theaters, opera and music halls.

Latvia implements dozens of international projects: Riga-Berlin Art Bridge, Latvian Literature Abroad, participation in the WMO, the Venice Biennale, Oscar-2025, large festivals, exchanges with Scandinavia, EXPO openings, creative investments in design/architecture. Cultural and product brands (Balzams, Dzintars, Jurmala, Latvian beer, Amber, songs, dance school) are protected in accordance with EU standards and national patent and commodity legislation; cultural branding and marketing platforms have been created.

Cuisine is Baltic-European with the influence of Germans, Russians, Jews, Swedes: fermented dairy products, chorizo, rye bread, fish, sprats, crumbly porridges, beetroot, plants, honey, gingerbread, national drinks (balzams, kvass). ~61-65% of the population regularly participate or attend cultural events, museums, holidays, theaters, concerts, recordings of folklore groups; high coverage of youth and schoolchildren.

Data completeness assessment: basic indicators are available in UNESCO and national statistics, coverage is 93%.

Cognitive sovereignty — 74.7

HDI — 0.889 (2023), 41st place in the world, "very high" level on the UN scale, one of the leaders of the Baltic States. In 2025 — 4.6–4.7% of GDP (World Bank, Eurostat, current budget). The state is the main investor in the education system; part of the costs are covered by European funds. Literacy is 99.9% (according to the World Bank/UNESCO, 2022-2025), among the adult population it is one of the highest in the world. Average PISA 2022 scores: Mathematics — 487, Reading — 491, Natural Sciences — 500.

This is at the European average level, and in a number of areas it is above the OECD average. 31-33% of university graduates are STEM (science, technology, engineering, medicine, IT) (Eurostat, UNESCO, Ministry of Education). 12-15% of university programs are in English or jointly implemented with universities in the EU/USA/Scandinavia; more than 5,800 international students in the country, a marked increase in joint master's degree programs.

The following languages are taught in schools and universities: Russian, Polish, Belarusian, Estonian, Ukrainian, Latgale, Gypsy; annually state programs to support small nations, Lithuanian and Polish schools, courses, cultural associations and the media.

There are 13 national/university research centers in the country in physics, biology, chemistry, and information technology, and the LARS Institute at the University of Latvia. About 82-85% of online educational programs are national platforms: E-klase, Mycoob, Platform Latvija.lv, e-universities and public schools.

The total amount of support (scholarships, innovation grants, Olympiads, competitions, funds) is €78-98 million per year (2024-2025); the focus is on STEM, mobility, research, integration of young scientists and joint projects with the EU.

Data completeness assessment: education indicators are available in the UNDP, UNESCO, OECD, coverage is 97%.

Military sovereignty — 57.6

The defense budget is 3.8—4.35% of GDP (in 2025 — €1.59 billion), with an increase to 5% after 2026 (decision of the Cabinet of Ministers and Parliament). This is a record figure in the EU/NATO. Permanent staff — ~8,000 professional soldiers, 10,000 National Guard, 38,000 reserve troops, target by 2030-31,000 peacetime, 61,000 during the war period.

Rapid modernization is underway: the purchase of modern air defense systems (IRIS-T, NASAMS), HIMARS, drones, IFVs, artillery, coastal defense, and the infrastructure of NATO allies. Most of the armored vehicles, air defense and heavy weapons are purchased from the allies (USA, Germany, Sweden).

9-12% of weapons are locally produced (small arms, special equipment, UAVs, logistics, part of IT solutions); the development strategy is to double the local share to ~ 20% by 2028. National forces and border guards (army, border troops, police), strengthening of the eastern border, close cooperation with NATO in the region. An extensive system of exercises for the defense of strategic areas is being developed.

Up to 38,000 mobilization reserves, including those who have served military and contract service, annual exercises. The plan is to expand to 61,000 in case of mobilization/crisis. Latvia is a front—line member of NATO: all strategic decisions (air defense, infrastructure, operations, deployment) are made taking into account the alliance; alliance units operate on the territory.

The national military industry is actively developing: Strategy 2025-2036 provides for the growth of local production, the creation of factories for the production of UAVs, ammunition, engineering equipment, digital solutions, and cooperation with allies.

Latvia does not own or develop nuclear weapons — 0 warheads; the country is a strict party to all non—proliferation treaties. There are no national military satellites, the EU/NATO space infrastructure and signals are used; cyber intelligence, its own military intelligence, is integrated into NATO structures. The digital infrastructure is actively developing (DIBAX-2025).

All parameters are reflected in the annual reports of SIPRI, UNODA, the Ministry of Defense, the official portals of state—owned companies (Embraer, IMBEL) and the UN/NGO industry databases - 87% coverage

Final Summary Table

The main conclusions

Strengths. Political, legal and digital sustainability: High index of legal stability and Government Effectiveness (WGI ~0.92), effective parliamentary system, rapid implementation of the digital state (EGDI – 27th in the world).

Development of electronic services and security, ranked 7th in the world in cybersecurity by CERT and ITU. Deep European integration: Member of the EU, NATO, and the eurozone; national law is consistent with international law, ECHR decisions/EU courts are mandatory, the main money supply, credit policy and defense are delegated to supranational structures. Economic and financial flexibility: Open markets and transport, continued GDP growth (1.6–1.9% in 2025-2026); competitive tax system, active attraction of investments in fintech, logistics, IT. The startup ecosystem is developing, rapid growth of salaries in the IT sector (national average ~ €1,700, in IT — €2,700).

Humanitarian and educational indicators: HDI — 0.889 (41st place in the world), literacy 99.9%, high enrollment in higher education (88-91%), developed public sector talent support. Cultural identity: Powerful traditions, three UNESCO sites, intangible cultural heritage (choral, folklore), more than half of the population is involved in cultural life, programs to support small nations, a developed system of awards and competitions.

Strong defense unit: Rapid growth of the defense budget (up to 4.4% of GDP, with an increase of 5%), rapid modernization of weapons (air defense, HIMARS, drones), close alliance cooperation with NATO, successful mobilization exercises.

Weaknesses. Demographic crisis: Aging of the population, high level of emigration, which is not compensated by local migration; shortage of personnel and specialists. This limits the potential of the economy and the growth rate. Import dependence in critical sectors: 80-90% of electronics, chips, software, household appliances, and energy resources are supplied from outside. Their own R&D, biotech, and robotics are at an early stage, and there is no autonomy on chips.

Dependence on supranational centers: Currency (euro), monetary policy, most defense regulations, sanctions regulation, financial monitoring, and even part of the energy market are determined at the supranational level. Economic stagnation and volatility: after a drop in GDP in 2024 (-0.4%), the economy is recovering slowly (growth <2%), high energy and food prices, and continued stagnation in the domestic market. Housing and infrastructure challenges: Overcrowding in Riga, dilapidated housing stock, low rates of housing renovation — lagging behind the average EU model.

Military and strategic dependence: Most key decisions are made taking into account the positions of NATO; there is no own space and nuclear component, most of the heavy weapons are imported; the autonomy of the military is limited.

Overall assessment. Latvia's cumulative sovereignty index is 486.1 out of 700 possible points (above the average of 69.4%), which places the country in the top 50 in the global top. Latvia is an example of a modern integrated European state with a high level of democratic, legal and digital standards, rapid development of defense and a strong cultural identity.

Key challenges: import dependence, technology and demography, external EU/NATO solutions. Growth and innovation are being held back by a shortage of staff and a low level of its own high-tech sector.

Long-term prospects are sustainable provided that the course towards modernization, strengthening of human capital and the R&D/IT sector continues. The sovereignty profile indicates that Latvia is a modern European state with a high level of state and social development, deep legal and military integration with the EU and NATO, a developed digital infrastructure and cultural identity.

Key constraints are related to the lack of strategic, monetary, and technological autonomy, import dependence, demographic threats, and a high level of external coordination while maintaining formal sovereignty.