Introduction

This report presents a comprehensive analysis of Kazakhstan's sovereignty using the methodology of the Burke Institute. Sovereignty is assessed in 7 areas: political, economic, technological, informational, cultural, cognitive and military. Each aspect is assessed on the basis of official data from international and national sources (UN, World Bank, UNESCO, IMF, ITU, FAO, SIPRI, PISA, etc.) without using politicized indexes. The maximum score in each direction is 100; the sum (up to 700) is the accumulated Sovereignty Index (Burke Index).

To adapt and adjust statistical parameters, an international expert survey was conducted for each of the seven components using a single questionnaire of 10 questions with a 10-point scale and one open-ended question.

In total, at least 100 experts from 50+ countries were interviewed for each indicator, taking into account geographical representation and specialization. When calculating and analyzing the data, equalizing coefficients were used, bringing all data to a scale of 0-10 points.

The final index value is the arithmetic mean between statistical data and expert estimates.

Below is an analysis in each area, a summary table and the main conclusions about the peculiarities of Kazakhstan's sovereignty.

Political sovereignty — 63.5

Kazakhstan is a member of the UN, OSCE (was chairman in 2010), EAEU, SCO, CSTO, World Bank, IMF, WTO, ICAO, ICAO, Economic Cooperation Organization (in 2025 — Chairman), since 2025 — BRICS partner. Actively participates in SCO, CICA, Islamic and environmental initiatives, promotes the policy of “multi-vector".

According to the Constitution (Article 4), ratified international treaties take precedence over laws, but not over the Constitution itself; the CC is a “dual system” (direct implementation and adaptation through consent); however, legal practice shows that the Constitution finally dominates the conflict between international and national law.

The WGI Political Stability Index (2023) is the 36.5th percentile (above the CIS countries, but below the global average). The GPI Peace Index — 1.87 (2025) — has been strengthened, but there remains a high level of unhurried reforms and risks of peripheral protests.

Government Effectiveness -0.13 (2023), 48th percentile: there has been an increase in efficiency under President Tokayev (since 2019), but problems with corruption and regional unevenness persist. EGDI — 0.817 (2022), high level (top ten countries in the world): there are integration “e-gov” platforms, eGov services.kz, megacenter, online banking, Digital ID system. Officially, the authorities record support for President Tokayev at 70-77% according to polls from 2023-2024, but independent estimates reflect real trust at 35-43%; the opposition is marginalized, and political competition is limited.

There are no foreign bases; the only major facility is the Russian Baikonur spaceport (leased until 2050), military contingents are only deployed through joint CSTO exercises, and NATO has not deployed military-industrial complex programs. Kazakhstan participates in the jurisdiction of the ICC, the International Court of Justice, the UN Human Rights Committee, recognizes the decisions of the ECHR, and is a signatory to the ICSID in economics; however, many court decisions are executed selectively, taking into account the national interests.

A unitary state with a centralized system (20 regions and three cities of national significance); a reform is underway — a plan for a referendum on the transition to a unicameral parliament, the rights of maslikhats and akimats are expanding, but key decisions are made “from above", regions are highly dependent on the center. National Service. The National Security Committee (KNB), intelligence and the Interior Ministry are actually subordinate to the president.

Parliamentary and judicial oversight is very limited; in 2022-2024, reforms were noted towards greater transparency and rotation, but there is no independent control over the security forces, and there are cases of excess authority of the National Security Committee and influence on human rights defenders.

Data completeness assessment: the main indicators are available from international sources, the coverage is 98%.

Economic sovereignty — 66.2

GDP per capita (PPP) — $40,800–$44,450 (World Bank, IMF, Statista estimates, 2024-2025). Official reserves (National Bank + National Fund) — $104.7 billion as of May 2025; “net” gold and foreign exchange reserves — $45.8–52.4 billion (2025), import coverage — about 8 months, assets of the National Fund — $58.8 billion. National debt — 23.7–25.4% of GDP (2024-2025, IMF, Trading Economics), absolute values — $45.7 billion in the second quarter of 2025.

Kazakhstan is a net exporter of grain (wheat plays the role of a regional donor), 95-98% of food is domestic, some vegetables and fruits are imported, and risks for sugar and fruit and vegetable groups under climatic shocks.

Sovereignty in hydrocarbons and electricity: 97% of oil, gas, and coal are locally produced, a major exporter of energy resources (TOP 10 oil, gas, and uranium). World importance: 1st place in uranium (explored + production), large reserves of oil, gas, coal, iron, copper, gold, chromium, zinc; more than 50 types of minerals and metals are exported.

The country is experiencing a shortage: reserves cover 90-96% of its demand, the Irtysh, Ili, and Syr Darya are key drains, and most of the water balance depends on transboundary waters (China, Russia, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan). All settlement and payment transactions are conducted through the National Bank of Kazakhstan, the Kazakhstan payment system (KISC, KAZCARD), and all key banks are registered in the state register.

National currency — tenge (KZT): the internal share of transactions exceeds 98%, external transactions in rubles, dollars, euros; restrictions on the use of currency in retail and retail chains. The National Bank of Kazakhstan (NBK) issues and regulates monetary policy (key interest rate, refinancing loans, reserves and inflation control).

Data completeness assessment: the main macroeconomic indicators are available from official sources (World Bank, IMF), coverage is 90%

Technological sovereignty — 54.8

Expenditures on R&D are 0.14–0.16% of GDP (2023-2024), at a budget level of $430-543 million per year; the country ranks 124th in the world in terms of the share of investments in science. Major projects have been launched in the automotive industry, multimedia systems, automotive components, pharma, tires, AI and IoT; there are 16 FEZs and 55 industrial zones, but in general the country imports 60-70% of equipment and software, 80% of IT products, more than 90% of chips and High-tech components.

University students — 624,500 (2024/25), which is more than 34% of young people (18+), according to the plan “Kazakhstan-2050” it is expected to reach 40% by 2030; the proportion of foreign students is growing (4.5%). Internet coverage is 88-89% of the population (2025); mobile Internet is almost everywhere, fixed — up to 65% of households. It works eGov.kz (a single portal); there are state business registration, tax, financial, medical, educational (Univer, BilimLand, Opiq), AI and IoT ecosystems, public procurement and document management systems. 60-80% of IT, servers, clouds, chips, and microelectronics are imported; software, components, and robotics platforms are being developed, but there is no independent production of complex components and high-precision electronics.

EGDI — 0.817 (2022), a well-developed e-gov system, 85% of the population is covered by public services online, and a digitalization strategy is being implemented in all areas. The biotech industry is in the formation phase: its own pharma (AS-Probionorm), biotech research centers, more than 10 small enterprises, individual biological products are exported; most of the equipment, reagents and R&D are imported.

There are training and implementation centers for EduRobotics, IoT laboratories, there is no mass introduction of industrial robots or exports; the market is formed on the basis of partner innovative industries. 95-98% of chips and microelectronics are imported, there are local assembly lines for ASCUE/IoT and cables, but there are no design centers or mass production; there are active plans for the development of national.

The component and the production of electronics will be implemented only from 2024.

Data completeness assessment: key indicators are obtained from WIPO, ITU, UNESCO, which provides 93% coverage.

Information sovereignty — 63.7

KZ-CERT is a national CERT, recognized by ITU as one of the best in the CIS (31st place in GCI-2021, 94 points in GCI-2024, Tier 2 “Advancing” according to the new ITU methodology), the strategy “Cyber Shield of Kazakhstan" has been adopted.

Special training programs and the CERT national platform are officially in effect.kz, annual international cyber studies. KAZ-GOV-IX (Semey, the state operator), KAZ-IX (Almaty, Karaganda) and KazNIX (the neutral IX platform) operate; coverage is the largest in the region, traffic exchange between operators, data centers is provided at the level of the largest cities.

Television, radio, and most of the print media are in Kazakh and Russian; starting in 2025, 55% of television and radio airwaves are in Kazakh, and the target is 60% by 2027. More than 400 films, TV series, and programs in Kazakh are being released (2025, the initiative of TV+ and Kazakhtelecom), and the demand for native content is constantly growing.

The infrastructure (clouds, social networks, software, streaming) depends on BigTech — Microsoft, Google, Apple, AWS, but the government promotes its own clouds, public services platforms, and increases the requirements for data localization and services. Starting in 2025, a total of 55-60% of state/radio and online broadcasts will be local content (news, talk shows, films, broadcasts, up to 50% — original projects).

A significant but growing share is cartoons, children's/educational products in Kazakh and Russian. Egov.kz, Digital ID, BilimLand, Opiq, Public procurement, national LMS, IoT and fintech services, software for industrial and financial platforms, regional mini-developments in universities, third-party market. Online banking — more than 80% of the population, public services eGov.kz — 85%, EdTech and e enrollment in schools – 70%+ residents; in villages it is lower, but access is expanding.

National data centers GOV CLOUD, KazData, Kcell and Beeline private clouds are operating, business content is increasingly stored locally; government agencies are required to keep databases in the local infrastructure.

Three national operators (Kazakhtelecom/Kcell, Beeline, Tele2/Altel) are under Kazakh jurisdiction; the infrastructure is a mixture of local and foreign (Huawei, Ericsson, ZTE), the share of the state-owned company is over 50%. Since the 2020s, the law “On Personal Data and their protection” has been adopted, a unified database is being implemented, “by default” consent is in effect, partial harmonization with GDPR has been established, and a register of PD operators has been created.

Government agencies are strengthening compliance and audit, but the regulator is not yet independent.

Data completeness assessment: infrastructure indicators are available from ITU, CIRA, OECD and specialized sources, coverage is 94%.

Cultural sovereignty — 80.4

The UNESCO list includes 6 sites: the mausoleum of Khoja Ahmed Yasawi, the Petroglyphs of Tamgaly, the Saryarka steppes and lakes of Northern Kazakhstan, the Western Tien Shan, the Turkestan deserts, and part of the Silk Road route (Chang'an-Tianshan Corridor, incl. Kayalyk, Talgar, Akyrtas).

The preliminary list includes 14 objects. 13 traditions and rituals are included in the UNESCO Intangible Heritage list: kiiz uy (yurt), dombra-kuy, aitys, Nauryz, kes (national wrestling), togyzkumalak (game), betashar (bride ceremony), etc.; Kazakhstan played a key role in the development of steppe civilization, through the Silk Road — in the intercontinental exchange, nomadic art, folklore, and modern ethno-design.

The Umai National Art Award, the State Prize in Literature and Art, the main nominations are for theater, choreography, music, theater and fine arts, dozens of youth scholarships, special nominations for artisans, and daily awards from departments. The basis is a synthesis of Tengrianism, Islamic, Turkic and Soviet elements; rituals of dombra sounding, hospitality, Nauryz holidays, family rituals, children's initiations, tea traditions, dances, rites of entry into adulthood, Kazakh tribal structures and language.

Support is allocated to the languages of the Uighurs, Tatars, Dungans, Russians, Germans and 120 diasporas; financing theaters and ensembles, folklore programs, mektaps in 8-12 languages, protection of cultural centers and monuments of all communities. More than 1,000 museums and memorials, more than 50,000 registered monuments of history, archeology, architecture; national theaters, libraries, 20 world-class festival ensembles; more than 14 sites on the UNESCO tentative list.

He regularly participates in UNESCO projects, the Silk Road program; the international festivals Astana Opera, Voice of the Steppe, Eurasian Dance, the international festival of ethnocultures, art exchanges, theatrical and musical residencies. Yurt, dombra, aitys, carpet weaving, national cuisine, Kazakh ornaments, silk and wool are state brands; there are GI (geographical indication) markings, laws on the protection of intangible heritage, annual state certificates.

Cuisine: beshbarmak, kazy, kumis, shurpa, baursaki, lagman, manti, pilaf, various dairy and meat dishes, Uzbek, Uighur, Russian and Tatar cuisines. Multinational gastronomy and modern variations. Up to 80-86% of the population is covered by state and local holidays, museums, theaters, sports and regional festivals, schools and cultural palaces.

Data completeness assessment: basic indicators are available in UNESCO and national statistics, coverage is 97%.

Cognitive sovereignty — 67.3

HDI — 0.837 (“very high", 60th out of 193); significant growth over the past 30 years, life expectancy — 74.4 years, secondary education — 12.5 years. Total expenditures — 4.46% of GDP (2022), more than the global average, in 2021-2023 — more than 22% of the budget annually; the indicator is steadily growing. Adult literacy is 99.8% (2020-2025), men - 99.81%, women — 99.78%; youth (15-24) — ~99.8%.

Kazakhstan participates in PISA, and in 2022-2023, the results are below the OECD average, but above most CIS countries: in mathematics, reading and science, the results are in the middle. The STEM share is 25-28% of students and graduates; large universities (Nazarbayev University, Satbayev University) hold up to 45% of STEM in general monitoring. 7-10% of students annually study in dual, foreign, internship, French-speaking and joint programs (Russian Federation, Germany, China, France, Great Britain, USA).

Russian is an officially functioning language; Kazakh is the official language; there is support for education in 8 languages (Kazakh, Russian, Uighur, Korean, Tatar, German, Ukrainian, Polish), and a cultural policy is being developed for 120+ diasporas.

More than 20 national research centers/institutes (biology, physics, chemistry, energy, medicine, robotics), 130+ research laboratories at universities. 15-18% of students and 22-26% of schoolchildren use public and private online platforms (Univer, BilimLand, Opiq); the share of distance and blended learning is growing due to EdTech.

The coverage of programs (grants, scholarships, Bolashak, competitions, Olympiads, international accelerations) is 5-7% of students, tens of thousands of grants and internships annually; the state actively invests in support of the gifted.

Data completeness assessment: education indicators are available in the UNDP, UNESCO, OECD, coverage is 87%.

Military sovereignty — 54.5

Military spending is 0.48–0.68% of GDP (2023-2025); in absolute terms, the budget of the Ministry of Defense is $1.3—1.4 billion in 2025, increasing over the past two years. The active staff is about 70,000 (2025), including 39,000 in the army, 12,000 in the Air Force, 3,000 in the Navy; including the gendarmerie, National Guard and other forces, the total mobilization reserve is more than 312,000.

Modern tanks (T-72K, T-90), BMP 2, Arlan armored cars (Kazakhstan), Cobra II (Turkey), new aviation systems (A400M Spain, Su 30SM and Anka UAV), Buk-M2E, Tor M2K, Rosa RB (Belarus), own Nur radars, fleet — speedboats. Modernization of the complex — 2022-2025, emphasis on import and local assembly.

Arlan armored cars, part of the UAV, Nur radars, small arms and complex equipment (Semey Engineering, Kazakhstan Paramount) are produced. Own production of machinery — up to 30%, the rest is imported (Russia, Turkey, Belarus, China). It is carried out by the Border Service of the National Security Committee, Armed Forces equipped with UAVs, radars and upgraded points.

Control over the entire land and air border, control over the Caspian Sea — by the Navy, periodically jointly with Russia and Azerbaijan. Officially— there are more than 240,000 reservists (2025); there is a system of mobilization reserve, regular training camps and territorial defense units. Military policy is multi-vector: Kazakhstan is a member of the CSTO and the SCO, participates in joint exercises with Russia, China, and NATO countries (without bases), modernizes the military-industrial complex together with Turkey and Israel; major decisions are made at the national level, and consideration of allies is advisory.

Developed: 18 enterprises (Semey Engineering, Kazakhstan Paramount, Tupus, Petropavlovsk Plant), a full assembly cycle of armored vehicles, radars, ammunition, small arms; the share of own production in key segments is 20-40%. There are no nuclear weapons (renounced since 1994), the country is the leader of the nonproliferation movement, all 1,410 former warheads were eliminated by 1996, and the nuclear-weapon-free status agreement was fully implemented.

Communication/remote sensing satellites “KazSat” and “KazEOSat" are operating, the national satellite reconnaissance system, space objects (Baikonur, Gagarin Launch) jointly with the Russian Federation; the Center for Analysis and Geoinformation of the Ministry of Defense is developing.

All parameters are reflected in the annual reports of SIPRI, UNODA, the Ministry of Defense, the official portals of state-owned companies (Embraer, IMBEL) and the UN/NGO industry databases - 89% coverage

Final Summary Table

The main conclusions

Strengths. These are high economic stability due to very large reserves of natural resources, strong energy and food independence, high-quality human capital (HDI 0.837, literacy 99.8%, 34% of young people with disabilities), an integrated system of public services (eGov, EGDI 0.817), strong positions in regional and global unions (UN, EAEU, SCO, BRICS-partner), modern financial and emission center (reserves >$100 billion, debt <25% of GDP), own defense industry (20-40% of equipment, armored cars, UAVs, radars), developed mobile communications infrastructure, national clouds, digital platforms.

Weaknesses. Low investment in R&D (0.14% of GDP, 124th place in the world), significant import dependence in high tech, microelectronics and complex IT infrastructure (imports 60-80%), innovation index (GII — 81st place, average score 26.3), pockets of corruption and weak regions in terms of state efficiency (WGI ~48th percentile), inequality between the capital/regions and insufficient coverage of advanced digital services in rural areas.

Vulnerabilities include freshwater scarcity (dependence on cross-border wastewater and climate), climate risks for the agro-industrial complex, possible dependence of the fintech and IT sector on international players (BigTech), the volume of exports of raw materials exceeds the share of exports of high-tech goods.

Overall assessment. The cumulative index of Kazakhstan's sovereignty is 450.4 out of 700 possible points (above the average of 64.3%), which places the country in the top 100 in the global top.

Kazakhstan has a solid, multi-layered statehood and independence due to resources, institutional reforms, digitalization and macroeconomics, but it still needs to increase its innovation and technological potential, R&D infrastructure and eliminate regional distortions in order to become a “leader of the new technological order.”

The sovereignty profile indicates that Kazakhstan's sovereignty is based on sound macroeconomics, an innovative institutional structure, and a deep cultural identity with pronounced pragmatism in international relations, but requires accelerating the technological transition and strengthening domestic innovation and educational resources to move into the “league of global leaders.”