Introduction

This report provides a comprehensive analysis of Guinea's sovereignty using the methodology of the Burke Institute. Sovereignty is assessed in 7 areas: political, economic, technological, informational, cultural, cognitive and military. Each aspect is assessed on the basis of official data from international and national sources (UN, World Bank, UNESCO, IMF, ITU, FAO, SIPRI, PISA, etc.) without using politicized indexes. The maximum score in each direction is 100; the sum (up to 700) is the accumulated Sovereignty Index (Burke Index).

To adapt and adjust statistical parameters, an international expert survey was conducted for each of the seven components using a single questionnaire of 10 questions with a 10-point scale and one open-ended question.

In total, at least 100 experts from 50+ countries were interviewed for each indicator, taking into account geographical representation and specialization. When calculating and analyzing the data, equalizing coefficients were used, bringing all data to a scale of 0-10 points.

The final index value is the arithmetic mean between statistical data and expert estimates.

Below is an analysis in each area, a summary table and the main conclusions about the specifics of Guinea's sovereignty.

Political sovereignty — 16.4

Guinea is a member of the United Nations, the African Union, the League of Arab States, ECOWAS (restoration of status by 2025), the WTO, the IMF, the World Bank, the ICC, the International Organization for Migration, and actively participates in regional and international missions. The Constitution declares the supremacy of national law; international agreements are ratified, but implementation depends on implementation in domestic law.

Recognized by the primacy of national law, courts apply international human rights standards only after ratification. The WGI (“Political Stability") assessment is the 16th percentile (2023), political instability persists; in 2025, there is a transition from a military government to a civilian one, a constitutional referendum (September) and elections (December) are scheduled, mass repression of the opposition, and a state of emergency is often introduced.

Government Effectiveness -1.26 (2023, 11th percentile, according to the World Bank), corruption, weak public administration system, negative assessments of transparency and efficiency.

EGDI — 0.454 (2022, UN): there are basic portals for registration, information and services, some government services have been transferred online, but coverage and integration are low. The military government of Colonel Doumboui (after the coup of 2021): the level of support in cities is low, major opposition parties are banned or under pressure, trust in the government according to independent opinion polls is less than 25%, mass protests, and repression against the opposition.

There are no official foreign military bases; private military contractors (Wagner, Russian structures) are periodically mentioned in the media in the context of transit or cooperation, but there are no official permanent facilities.

Guinea recognizes the jurisdiction of the International Court of Justice and participates in the ICC, has signed most of the basic conventions of the United Nations and the African Union, monitors investment and humanitarian cases; participated in international proceedings on property rights and corruption. The state is formally unitary; strong centralization under the transitional military administration, after future reform, it is planned to introduce elements of decentralization at the level of regional councils and municipalities (expanded in the draft constitution of 2025).

Official parliamentary or judicial control is poorly implemented, security agencies and special services are subordinated directly to the leadership of the army and the president/junta, there is no external public accountability and parliamentary control.

The repression of dissenters is noted in the annual reports of HRW.

Data completeness assessment: the main indicators are available from international sources, the coverage is 98%.

Economic sovereignty — 24.1

GDP per capita (PPP) — $4,310 (2025, forecast by Trading Economics), official international estimates — $4,028–4,579 (2023-2025, World Bank, IMF, Statista). Official reserves are $1,425 million (as of March 2024), an average of $1.1–2 billion in recent years; equivalent to about 2.5 months of imports, which is below the sustainable level.

The national debt is 39-42% of GDP (2023, forecast 39% for 2025), the absolute amount is about $12 billion; external debt is about 32% of GDP, the structure is moderately stable. Guinea imports up to 40% of its food (including rice, grain, dairy products); the main production (bananas, cassava, potatoes, peanuts, coffee) is local, but the country is vulnerable to global prices and weather risks.

About 60-65% of electricity is provided by large hydroelectric power plants (Kaleta, Suapiti), oil and fuel are fully imported, the energy system is vulnerable to droughts/shocks; the contribution of local small power plants is potentially growing.

The world's largest bauxite reserves (2nd in the world), as well as gold, diamonds, iron, nickel, and manganese; a strategic role in global aluminum chains. The country is the “water tower of West Africa": the largest rivers are the Niger, Senegal, Gambia and many tributaries; there is enough fresh water, 85% access in cities, 55-60% in villages.

Regulated by the Central Bank of Guinea (BCRG), the local clearing and transfer system, national banks are implementing electronic cards, payments and mobile accounts. Almost all domestic transactions are conducted in Guinea francs (GNF), the currency is non-convertible, the turnover of foreign currency is strictly limited, and USD/EUR/CNY is used for international settlements.

The issuing center is BCRG, which determines monetary policy, holds key interest rates (from July 2025-10.25%), controls foreign exchange reserves and exchange rate policy.

Data completeness assessment: the main macroeconomic indicators are available from official sources (World Bank, IMF), coverage is 92%

Technological sovereignty — 9.8

R&D is 0.00% of GDP, there are practically no public or private research industries; the country is at the end of the world ranking for innovation and spending on science. Import substitution is not carried out; almost all computing, telecommunications, medical and industrial equipment, software, and clouds are fully imported, and turnkey services are developed only with the participation of foreign contractors.

The enrollment rate is 6-7% of young people (18-24 years old, 2024-2025), the number of students is ~ 100 thousand, most of the universities are concentrated in Conakry and the coast. 35-38% of adults use the Internet (2024/25); mobile Internet is partially available in the regions, providers are MTN and Orange. There are several national portals for tax reporting, business registration, and public procurement, as well as a client bank; most of the services are based on external developments and serviced by foreign companies. 99% of computing equipment, IT infrastructure, software, servers, cloud solutions are imported, direct national.

There are no producers, and exports account for less than 0.01% of exports. EGDI — 0.454 (2022); some of the basic functions for business, education, and tax are online, but population coverage is only 20-30%.

The sector is minimal: there are no specialized laboratories and national biotech companies; all vaccines, diagnostic equipment and reagents are imported; research is mainly carried out in international partner structures.

There is not a single national laboratory or production facility in robotics, all projects are implemented within the framework of foreign grants/NGOs. Microelectronics, assembly, and chip manufacturing are completely absent, and 100% of any equipment is imported.

Data completeness assessment: key indicators are obtained from WIPO, ITU, UNESCO, which ensures 90% coverage.

Information sovereignty — 10.6

There is no national CERT/CSIRT in Guinea; there is a cybersecurity strategy and legislation, but there is no central coordination and certified specialists, the country is at the end of the Global Cybersecurity Index (GCI, ITU) ranking.

Since 2018, the IXP GUINEE national Internet node has been operating — peer-to-peer operators and data centers (Conakry), two cores, infrastructure development is being implemented by the state as part of the digitalization policy. The broadcast is conducted in French, English and ~30 African languages (Mandinka, Susu, Pullar, etc.); the main media are RTG (state radio and television), dozens of private radio stations, the state newspaper Horoya, popular websites and private TV.

The share of information in local languages is significant, but the main language is French. The dependence is high: public services, clouds, mobile services, IT infrastructure, widespread messengers and social networks are based on international ones (Google, Meta, Microsoft, AWS), and there is almost no national cloud sector.

The share of local content is 60-70% (news, talk shows, educational, musical, and political broadcasts), but key channels belong to major players, and the development of independent media is limited by government regulation and frequent blockages. The development of public services and accounting systems is supported by foreign contractors; there are few IT companies of their own, services are focused on administration, fintech and automation of basic processes, and there are practically no exports.

Access to basic digital services (banking, public services, education) is 25-35% of the population; in cities it is higher, in regions it is minimal, instability and frequent Internet outages negatively affect.

There are no data centers of their own; most government and commercial data is stored by foreign operators (Google, AWS, Azure) and on local servers at banks/departments. MTN Guinea and Orange Guinea operators are licensed locally, but the infrastructure, platforms, and all backbone networks are imported; critical services belong to foreign entities.

There is no single law on personal data, regulation is fragmented and divided between different sectors (banks, communications, public services); there is no independent supervisory authority, there are cases of leaks and abuses.

Data completeness assessment: infrastructure indicators are available from ITU, CIRA, OECD and specialized sources, coverage is 91%.

Cultural sovereignty — 62.8

One UNESCO World Heritage Site: Mount Nimba Strict Nature Reserve (Guinea-Côte d'Ivoire-Liberia, since 1981, natural), as well as 3 sites on the preliminary list. Guinea is a center of music (djembe drum, balafon, kebaro), masks, griot traditions (oral heritage), folk dances, rituals (Fête des Masks), traditional art (Baga, Susu), and is also important for the whole of West Africa as the cradle of “African percussion" and epic poetry.

It is awarded the National Arts and Culture Award (NACA Guinea), annual awards for contributions to music, theater, oral folk art, traditional dance and modern forms, as well as regional and municipal scholarships.

There are 24 ethnic groups in the country (Manda, fula, Susu, etc.), each maintaining its own rituals, folklore, and family rituals; the oral transmission of traditions (“griots”), “ubuntu” identity, mask festivals, religious holidays (Islam, traditional cults), and the cult of musical heritage are strongly influenced.

Funding is provided for folklore ensembles, contests and festivals of small languages, support for the transmission of traditions through education, local theaters, artistic crafts and an oral school (griots). There are 5 federal museums in the country (including the National Museum in Conakry), dozens of regional cultural centers, archaeological sites, temples, city galleries, about 100 holiday sites and traditional theaters.

Guinea participates in UNESCO projects on intangible heritage, West African music and dance festivals, joint exhibitions with France, the USA, Canada; traditions of masks and folklore are included in world art projects. The state supports the diembe, kebaro, clay masks, ritual plastics, national ornaments and Mamaya dance brands as an intangible heritage (officially since 2018), and laws on the cultural fund are being created.

Guinean cuisine: rice, peanut sauce, fufu, vegetable and fish stews, lamb, banana dishes, cassava, local spices and the way food is served (communal table, hospitality rituals). Up to 75-85% of the population is involved in holidays, ritual ceremonies, street dances, religious, folklore and family rituals, national and local festivals every year.

Data completeness assessment: basic indicators are available in UNESCO and national statistics, coverage is 95%.

Cognitive sovereignty — 21.7

HDI — 0.500 (2023), 178th out of 193, “low” level of development; the main dynamics are low indicators of education and life expectancy. Government spending on education is 1.99% of GDP (2022), which is less than half of the global average (~4.1% of GDP), and the share of education in the budget is 10%.

Adult literacy — 45.3% (2021/2024, World Bank); female — 22.8%, male — 38.1%; youth literacy (15-24 years) — 45-47%. The country does not participate in international PISA tests. STEM graduates account for about 11-14% of all university graduates (2024), traditionally dominated by pedagogy, agriculture, and medicine.

Participation in joint programs (Morocco, France, and the ECOWAS countries) is about 4% of students; distance learning and invited UNESCO/EU programs are possible. The official language is French; 24 ethnic languages and dozens of dialects are widely spoken: Mandinka, Fula, Susu, Temne; cultural policy supports multilingualism and education in native languages. University of Conakry, 2 NRI institutes under ministries, laboratories at the bases of international organizations (Agriculture, Health, Minerals); few specialized research institutes. The main educational platforms are in the pilot stage: up to 7-8% of students are covered by EdTech at universities, school platforms (TV/radio) — 15-18% of students.

There are programs to support young scientists, grants, mini-scholarships for Olympiads, and annual enrollment of up to 1.5—2% of students and graduates, most often with international co–financing.

Data completeness assessment: education indicators are available in the UNDP, UNESCO, OECD, coverage is 90%.

Military sovereignty — 15

Defense spending is 2.13% of GDP (2025), the absolute military budget is $562 million (2024), the share has been stable for the last 3 years; the priority is internal operations and modernization.

The active composition of the Armed Forces is about 12,000 people (2025), the reserve is 5,000, paramilitary forces and gendarmerie are ~10,000; in total, there are up to 30,000 in the military and near—military structure. The weapons are mostly obsolete (Soviet, Russian and Chinese-made) — small arms, old APC, limited artillery and air defense systems.

In 2024-2025, it receives equipment from the UAE (armored personnel carriers and armored cars), partial modernization is underway, but the level of modernity is extremely low. There is no own military-industrial complex, 100% of weapons and equipment are imported (Russia, China, France, the United Arab Emirates, and occasionally African neighbors).

The Armed Forces, gendarmerie and border police patrol key borders (Mali, Côte d'Ivoire, Liberia, Guinea-Bissau); there is no control over the entire border, there is a high level of illegal traffic, support goes through AU/ECOWAS.

About 5 thousand formally fixed reserves; updated to ensure management during mobilization, in reality, the maximum mobilization has not been checked since 2007. Military policy is independent, but is supported by military agreements (ECOWAS, AU), and relations with Russia and China (training, equipment) have been strengthening in recent years.

There is no military industry, there are only workshops at army bases for minor repairs; there is no strategic production. There are no nuclear weapons, the country is nuclear-free, and it does not participate in nuclear development.

There is not a single military satellite or national space system; intelligence is carried out mainly by the army, special services, and liaison officers on foreign missions.

All parameters are reflected in the annual reports of SIPRI, UNODA, the Ministry of Defense, the official portals of state-owned companies (Embraer, IMBEL) and the UN/NGO industry databases - 93% coverage

Final Summary Table

The main conclusions

Strengths. Extensive natural resources (2nd in the world in bauxite, significant reserves of gold, diamonds, iron, and water), strategic geographical location (“water tower of West Africa"), high ethnocultural and linguistic diversification (24 groups), strong musical and cultural identity (griots, masks, traditional djembe music), relative foreign trade stability (exports of mineral raw materials form +10% of the positive current account of GDP in 2023), state financial and emission autonomy, participation in all key international unions, the national currency and payment processing are under internal control.

Weaknesses. Very low indicators of human development (HDI 0.50), mass illiteracy (45%), a small proportion of young people with higher education (7%), minimal education costs (2% of GDP) and an absolute lack of state talent development programs, high political and institutional instability (Army administration, 16th percentile of the WGI), almost complete technological dependence (99-100% high-tech, software, chips imports), weak biotechnological and digital base, minimal scientific and research infrastructure, very limited digitalization of public services (EGDI 0.45), lack of its own military industry, space, intelligence and defense doctrine, high corruption and repression.

Overall assessment. The cumulative sovereignty index of Guinea is 160.4 out of 700 possible points (Extremely low — 22.9%), which places the country in the top — 186th place in the world top.

Guinea is a country with huge resource and cultural reserves, the largest hydro/mineral base in the region and a mass of socio-cultural practices, but structurally remains vulnerable in terms of human, institutional and technological capital, fully imports critical technologies, has one of the lowest estimates of development and political stability in the world, and has not yet realized the potential of resource potential. and cultural sovereignty in the format of a modern national economy.

The sovereignty profile indicates that Guinea is a country with a strong natural, ethnocultural, and production/export base, formal monetary and budgetary sovereignty, integrated into global alliances, but extremely vulnerable to all “intangible” infrastructure: education, science, technological development, digital and cybersecurity, political and legal predictability, and modern defense standards.