Introduction

This report provides a comprehensive analysis of Ecuador's sovereignty using the methodology of the Burke Institute. Sovereignty is assessed in 7 areas: political, economic, technological, informational, cultural, cognitive and military. Each aspect is assessed on the basis of official data from international and national sources (UN, World Bank, UNESCO, IMF, ITU, FAO, SIPRI, PISA, etc.) without using politicized indexes.

The maximum score in each direction is 100; the sum (up to 700) is the accumulated Sovereignty Index (Burke Index). To adapt and adjust statistical parameters, an international expert survey was conducted for each of the seven components using a single questionnaire of 10 questions with a 10-point scale and one open-ended question. In total, at least 100 experts from 50+ countries were interviewed for each indicator, taking into account geographical representation and specialization.

When calculating and analyzing the data, equalizing coefficients were used, bringing all data to a scale of 0-10 points.

The final index value is the arithmetic mean between statistical data and expert estimates.

Below is an analysis in each area, a summary table and the main conclusions about the peculiarities of Ecuadorian sovereignty.

Political sovereignty — 46.8

In 2024-2025, it was decided to lift the 16-year ban on foreign military bases in Ecuador (the ban has been in effect since 2008). The Parliament and the Constitutional Court have approved a constitutional reform that opens the possibility for the deployment of foreign bases, primarily the United States, the use of the Galapagos Islands and other locations is being discussed; however, in July 2025, the de facto military base has not yet been established, and a national referendum is required for final legalization.

Ecuador is a party to dozens of international agreements that are part of the national legal system and are recognized almost on a par with the Constitution (priority is exclusively given to the country's basic constitution).

The situation is extremely unstable: 2024 — a surge in organized violence and prison riots, the declaration of an "internal armed conflict", a severe criminal situation, regular manifestations of mass crime and coup attempts. The Government Performance Index (WGI) is low: Ecuador ranks 27-31 percentile according to the World Bank (2023), reflecting difficulties with institutions, corruption, policy execution, and security.

EGDI (e-government) in 2024-0.617; this is the average/low level of the global rating, most basic public services are represented, and there is no fully functional "single window". The level of trust in President Noboa and the institutions of power has decreased against the background of the fight against crime and the economic crisis; sociologically, support remains at 30-45%, the maximum is among supporters of radical measures.

Ecuador is a member of the United Nations, WTO, ALBA, CELAC, participates in the work of the Inter-American Human Rights System, has recently strengthened military-political cooperation with the United States; some jurisdictions have been delegated to international courts and precedents. The country regularly participates in and implements the decisions of the Inter-American Court of Human Rights, cooperates with the United Nations and relevant agencies for human rights and security.

Ecuador is a unitary centralized state; there are local municipalities, but all key decisions, the power unit and finances are under the control of central authorities. Control over the security services and law enforcement agencies is limited, and the level of transparency is low.

The Ombudsman/Defensor del Pueblo has an "A" status, but complaints of violations often do not produce an open result; international organizations criticize the shortcomings in the investigation of arbitrary detention and torture.

Data completeness assessment: the main indicators are available from international sources, the coverage is 98%.

Economic sovereignty — 43.7

GDP is 15,840 USD (according to the World Bank for 2024); according to other sources, it is 13,900-15,800 USD, on average it is 78-85% of the global indicator in terms of purchasing power parity. 6.9 billion US dollars are international reserves by the end of 2024.

This is 3 months of imports or 5.1% of GDP. 67.4% of GDP as of the third quarter of 2024 (the indicator grew in 2022-2024, but is under control), according to other estimates — about 50-67% (the differences are related to the calculation method).

Ecuador is a net exporter of bananas, shrimp, cocoa, cane, coffee, flowers, fish; basic foodstuffs (grain, meat, soybeans) are partially imported, but most agricultural needs are covered by domestic production. Food security is above average in Latin America. Most of the electricity is produced at its own hydroelectric power plants (more than 60%), local oil production is important, but fuels, lubricants and processed products are often imported.

Energy independence is rated as average. Proven oil reserves, a key exporter (about 7 billion barrels in 2024), significant reserves of gold, silver, copper, fish and other resources of the Amazon region and the Andes. Ecuador is one of the Latin American leaders in water resources (over 40,000 m3 per person per year), the largest rivers (Amazon, Guayas), and access problems are only in certain areas.

The country has a payment infrastructure (BNET, electronic banking), but the basis of the system is the US dollar and the tools of major American and international providers. Local banks manage accounts and internal transfers. Ecuador has been fully dollarized since 2000: 100% of payments in the domestic economy are in US dollars (USD), there is no own currency.

There is no own issuing center after dollarization, the Central Bank of Ecuador is responsible only for overseeing the banking sector and regulating reserves; monetary policy is extrapolated from the US Federal Reserve System.

Data completeness assessment: the main macroeconomic indicators are available from official sources (World Bank, IMF), coverage is 90%.

Technological sovereignty — 34.6

The expenditure on R&D of 0.44% of GDP is the maximum value for Ecuador (TheGlobalEconomy data for 2014, more recent estimates do not exceed 0.5% of GDP), remaining half the global average (0.99%).

Import substitution is poorly developed: the production of high-tech, machine tools, electronics, and IT solutions is almost absent the vast majority of equipment, semiconductors, servers and software are purchased abroad. 42% of young people (according to the latest national data) are enrolled in higher education (the number of students exceeded 1 million in 2023). 82-85% of the population have regular Internet access (the figure is growing rapidly, with almost full coverage among young people).

Public services (Ecuador.gob.ec), the portal of the tax service, electronic banks, doctor's appointment services — mostly national developments, but the infrastructure software and “backends” are global.

Import dependence is critically high: more than 90% of computer hardware, microchips, machine tools, industrial sensors, medical equipment and electronic software are of foreign origin, even government agencies purchase licensed software and clouds from major global vendors. EGDI 2024-0,617 (low-medium level): there are basic online public services, but a “single window”, official registers and document exchange are often not integrated, and penetration is incomplete.

There are institutes in agrobiotechnology in the country (the Research Center, Agrosavia), there are several laboratories for seed science, crop adaptation and pest control; however, the innovative fundamental biotech is underdeveloped — all key drugs, medicines and GMOs are imported.

Almost all industrial robotic equipment (ABB, KUKA, FANUC, Yaskawa, Siemens, Mitsubishi) is imported, there are no own national robotics startups or mass production. There is no production of chips, microelectronics, and sensors for mass deployment and export; the entire market (excluding manual installation and basic assembly) consists of imported products, including for critical infrastructure.

Data completeness assessment: key indicators are obtained from WIPO, ITU, UNESCO, which provides 93% coverage.

Information sovereignty — 49.2

The national CERT/CIRT in Ecuador operates under the auspices of the Ministry of Telecommunications, regularly participates in ITU regional cyber studies, but the country occupies low positions — in the latest ITU GCI rating (2020) Ecuador was 119th out of 182, no significant breakthrough has yet been recorded.

In 2024, projects on the implementation of the national law on cybersecurity and the development of the sector will be intensified. There are 6 active IXPs (Internet exchange offices) in Ecuador, the largest is IXP Ecuador in Quito, with a support network for local providers. This makes it possible to keep part of the national traffic in the country and reduce dependence on foreign channels.

Almost 100% of the media (TV, radio, online portals, print) is in Spanish; there are also a few channels and broadcasts in Quechua, Shuar and other indigenous languages, but the main information environment is Spanish-speaking.

A large proportion of critical IT infrastructure and services (Google, AWS, Meta, Microsoft) belong to foreign giants; self-protection and import substitution policies have not yet been developed, and regulatory requirements are minimal. Local productions (news, series, talk shows, music) account for 60-70% on TV and radio, but global content and licensed foreign formats prevail on digital platforms and the Internet.

There are government platforms (public services portal, fiscal accounting systems, fin-techs for export, some local electronic diaries and CRM), but there is no mass local software; educational, medical, cloud solutions are mainly of foreign origin. More than 80% of citizens have access to basic electronic public services and platforms, especially in cities; rural integration and infrastructure quality remain weak points.

There are infrastructure data centers of leading banks and providers, but no more than 10-15% of data and services are actually localized in Ecuador; the rest of the cloud market is occupied by global players. The operators (Claro Ecuador, Movistar, CNT) are licensed and managed by national regulators, but the equipment used, the core of the networks, and some of the key services are of imported origin.

In January 2021, the Ley Organica de Protección de Datos Personales (equivalent to GDPR) was adopted; the national regulator (Dirección Nacional de Registro de Datos Públicos) ensures the implementation of standards, but the actual degree of control and enforcement of requirements is still low due to the weakness of judicial protection and lack of experts.

Data completeness assessment: infrastructure indicators are available from ITU, CIRA, OECD and specialized sources, coverage is 94%.

Cultural sovereignty — 77.4

Ecuador has 5 UNESCO World Heritage Sites: Galapagos Islands, Quito City, Cuenca Historical Center, Sangay National Park, part of the Qhapaq Nan Inca Trail. Ecuador is a center of mixing of pre—Columbian civilizations (Incas, Kianyango), Spanish heritage, unique urban architecture (Quito, Cuenca), biosphere reserves (Galapagos, Yasuni).

The National School of Painting (Osco Lajohar, Luis Salgado), music (Native American folklore, pentatonic melodies, samba and sanhuanito), traditions of wood carving, ceramics and textiles have become part of the cultural mosaic of South America. National prizes and medals are awarded annually by the Ministry of Culture and government agencies for contributions to literature, music, painting and the preservation of cultural heritage, as well as grants to support creative initiatives.

The Inca-Quechuan, Spanish and Afro-Ecuadorian cultural stratum plays a strong role: folk festivals (Inti Raimi, Carnival), traditional clothing, crafts, special rituals in the Andes and on the coast, the use of Quechua and Shuar, unique melodies and ornaments.

More than 14 indigenous peoples are supported: schools, media platforms, cultural centers and national holidays in Quechua and Shuar are funded, legislative programs are being implemented to protect indigenous languages and customs. More than 1,200 historical, cultural, archaeological and architectural monuments (museums, monasteries, fortresses, archaeological zones, monuments of the colonial and pre-Hispanic eras) are under protection.

Ecuador actively promotes cultural ties through UNESCO, participates in joint exhibitions (Ibero-American Cultural Cooperation, Indo-Andes), international festivals, and the Biennial of contemporary Art in Quito. Ecuador has registered and legally protects the Panama Hat, local cocoa varieties, artistic textiles and a number of crafts, and the Galapagos Islands are the subject of national and international natural and cultural patronage.

Ecuadorian cuisine combines Andean, Amazonian, and coastal recipes: ceviche, llapingashti, corn soups, yucca, street food tradition; rare products (cuy, guayusa, amaranth), farmers' markets, street food and gastronomy festivals are used. About 54-60% of the population annually participates in cultural and traditional events (festivals, markets, community rituals); among young people and in large cities, more than 75% visit museums, exhibitions, concerts or participate in community celebrations.

Data completeness assessment: basic indicators are available in UNESCO and national statistics, coverage is 97%.

Cognitive sovereignty — 55.9

Human Development Index 0.777 — according to the UN data for 2023 (High Human Development; 83rd place in the world). The difference by province is: Pichincha — 0.841, Quito is among the leaders; the national average is 0.765–0.777. In recent years, 4.2–5.2% of GDP or about 12.8% of government spending is a typical level for the region/global economy. 94.0% (World Bank, Macrotrends 2022); among young people aged 15-24, it is above 98%.

PISA-2022: Ecuador ranks low with an average score of ~387 in mathematics, ~407 in reading, and ~388 in science (well below the OECD average). An estimated 22-25% of university graduates study in STEM fields (engineering, IT, exact and natural sciences); a smaller proportion compared to the OECD.

The share of programs with foreign participation is 3-5% (more often master's and postgraduate studies, exchanges with Spain, USA, Germany, Cuba). 13 indigenous languages are officially recognized and supported, the largest are Quechua and Shuar; the state finances schools, cultural centers and media in these languages.

There are 7-10 leading national institutes (Escuela Politécnica Nacional, Universidad Central, Institute of Geophysics, institutes at CONIE, etc.), there are several dozen research structures in total. Local government and university platforms provide 20-25% of online learning; most mass courses are global or international software (Google, Coursera, Moodle).

There are dozens of national scholarships, research grants, and support programs for scientists (Senescyt, EduMaster, and state scholarships), hundreds/thousands of students and researchers per year, and a budget of tens of millions of dollars.

Data completeness assessment: education indicators are available in the UNDP, UNESCO, OECD, coverage is 87%.

Military sovereignty — 42.1

2.3% of GDP by the end of 2023-2024, which is one of the highest rates in the region; actual expenditures are about 2.7 billion dollars. The total number is 57 thousand people (ground forces, Air Force, Navy, gendarmerie, formally up to 61 thousand).

Weapons were mainly upgraded in the 2000s and 2010s: AMX-13 tanks (~120), BMP-1 (30), armored personnel carriers, Msta-B artillery (12), BM-21 MLRS (18), Osa air defense (10), ZU-23 anti-aircraft guns, new models are being introduced small arms and communications equipment, Mi-8, Mi-171E helicopters, Western aviation and frigates are used, but most of the fleet is obsolete.

There is no own serial production of weapons; all heavy equipment, aircraft, armored vehicles and artillery are imported (France, Russia, Ukraine, USA, Israel, Brazil, China). The borders are under increased control of the Armed Forces, police and border guards, especially in the north (the border with Colombia) and in the Galapagos area. After 2024, control has been mobilized due to the growth of organized crime and migration threats.

It is estimated that up to 90,000 people (including all reservists and mobilization units for wartime). All decisions are made by the national military and political leadership. There are no external blocks; the country operates outside military alliances, cooperates with the USA, Japan, Chile, Brazil; joint exercises and data exchange are conducted.

There is no production of large—scale serial weapons and equipment; uniforms, repairs and minor assembly work are being made; the rest is purchased abroad. Ecuador does not have nuclear weapons or warheads, and fully complies with international nonproliferation obligations. There is no military space segment.

National intelligence and military surveillance work on the basis of satellites provided by external partners (mainly the USA and the EU), intelligence is classic for Latin America, there is no dedicated space intelligence and missile defense.

All parameters are reflected in the annual reports of SIPRI, UNODA, the Ministry of Defense of Ecuador, the official portals of state—owned companies (Embraer, IMBEL) and industry databases of UN/NGO - 89% coverage.

Final Summary Table

The main conclusions

Strengths are territorial and resource potential: Ecuador fully controls its borders and has no foreign military bases, has large oil reserves, powerful hydro resources, rich reserves of fresh water, forests and biosphere, and is the leader in Latin America in the export of bananas, shrimp, and cocoa.

Cultural wealth and ethnic diversity: 5 UNESCO sites, cultural diversity is funded, more than 14 peoples and languages are supported, a legislative framework has been created to preserve identity, and more than half of the country is involved in cultural projects and celebrations.

Education and basic literacy system: The country invests up to 5.2% of GDP in education, the literacy rate among young people exceeds 98%, higher education coverage has expanded, and a number of research and scholarship programs are in operation. Energy diversification: More than 60% of the electricity is provided by its own hydroelectric power plants, the national market is provided with water, significant positions in gold, oil and non—ferrous metals.

Relatively high level of defense spending: 2.3% of GDP on defense, well-trained law enforcement agencies for the region, operational control over internal security and key points of external borders.

Weaknesses. Weak institutional stability and corruption: Government Effectiveness — 27-31 percentile, constant outbreaks of criminogenic instability, limited transparency of the security forces, weak civil control and institutional mechanisms.

Critical import dependence in high-tech: there is practically no in-house production of modern IT, all components of microelectronics and equipment, and imports of not only industrial, but even software and hardware critical for state security dominate.

Financial and currency dependence: There is no own currency and issue — the entire macroeconomic and monetary policy is not autonomous, based on the US dollar, the national payment infrastructure is controlled by multinational companies. Innovation fragility: R&D does not exceed 0.44% of GDP, the number of research centers and university laboratories is small by world standards, and most of the research is conducted with grants and co-financing.

Limited exports of the industrial and intellectual sectors: The main exports are raw materials, food and biological resources. The creative industry, national brands, and large—scale manufacturing are in their infancy. Military industry and strategic technologies: The absence of its own heavy equipment, aircraft fleet, defense industry, space program; the country uses obsolete and imported weapons without real modernization.

The average level of digitalization: EGDI 0.617, low digital integration poorly covers rural and remote regions, national clouds and IT services occupy a small market share.

Overall score the cumulative sovereignty index of Ecuador is 349.7 out of 700 possible points (average — 49.9%), which places the country in the top 150 in the world top.

Ecuador combines its unique natural resource and cultural independence with institutional instability, technological backwardness and deep external dependence in finance, digital technologies and strategic development directions, which highlights the challenges of institutional and technological sovereignty.

The sovereignty profile indicates that Ecuador, as of 2025, has a high level of natural resource, cultural, and basic administrative autonomy, with increasing dependence on external technological, financial, and defense flows.

The key vulnerabilities are the lack of its own currency/issue, low-tech industry level, external impact on security and critical infrastructure.