Introduction

This report presents a comprehensive analysis of Bulgarian sovereignty using the methodology of the Burke Institute. Sovereignty is assessed in 7 areas: political, economic, technological, informational, cultural, cognitive and military. Each aspect is assessed on the basis of official data from international and national sources (UN, World Bank, UNESCO, IMF, ITU, FAO, SIPRI, PISA, etc.) without using politicized indexes.

The maximum score in each direction is 100; the sum (up to 700) is the accumulated Sovereignty Index (Burke Index). To adapt and adjust statistical parameters, an international expert survey was conducted for each of the seven components using a single questionnaire of 10 questions with a 10-point scale and one open-ended question.

In total, at least 100 experts from 50+ countries were interviewed for each indicator, taking into account geographical representation and specialization. When calculating and analyzing the data, equalizing coefficients were used, bringing all data to a scale of 0-10 points.

The final index value is the arithmetic mean between statistical data and expert estimates.

Below is an analysis in each area, a summary table and the main conclusions about the peculiarities of Bulgarian sovereignty.

Political sovereignty — 56

Multinational NATO military bases are located on the territory of Bulgaria: Novo Selo Training Area, Bezmer Air Base, Graf Ignatievo Air Base are operating and construction of a new Kabile base has begun in partnership with Italy and other allies.

The presence of allied troops (USA, Italy, Great Britain, Turkey, etc.) is officially fixed by intergovernmental agreements. European and international law take precedence over Bulgarian national legislation according to European standards (EU Law, ECtHR, Conventions).

Bulgaria is a member of the EU, the European Court of Justice and the Council of Europe, and there is a mechanism in place to harmonize legislation. The country has been experiencing a protracted political crisis since 2021: 7 parliamentary elections in 4 years, low turnout (34-35%), frequent government changes and the difficulty of forming coalitions.

Index of Political stability for 2023-0.34 (WGI), 55th percentile. In reality, there remains a high level of protests and a decrease in trust in institutions.

WGI Government Effectiveness Index for 2023-0.52 (64th percentile); the quality of public services is low, problems with corruption, the effect of comprehensive reforms is limited. EGDI (E-Government Development Index) — 0.768, 44th place in the world (2022); the level of digitalization is average, electronic public services for businesses and citizens are actively developing, but infrastructure integration lags behind the EU leaders.

Trust in the national leadership is extremely low — according to polls from 2024-2025, <12% of the population. The level of trust in institutions and elections is one of the lowest in Europe. Bulgaria is deeply integrated into the EU, NATO, the United Nations and other organizations, delegating multidisciplinary powers, and upholding its obligations on defense and law.

Significant participation and voting in international courts, security and regulatory structures. Bulgaria accepts obligations and participates in: the European Court of Justice, the ECHR, international arbitrations, successful integration of ECtHR standards, judicial registries and dialogue with the EU.

Bulgaria is a unitary state with elements of decentralization: local governments (communities) have a number of powers over the budget and social services, but key decisions are made at the national level. There is parliamentary and public control over the special services (DANS, Military Intelligence Service, Ministry of Internal Affairs), but the level of transparency and independence is criticized by the EU due to politicization, corruption, weak control over wiretaps and interference.

Data completeness assessment: the main indicators are available from international sources, the coverage is 88%.

Economic sovereignty — 51.8

GDP per capita by PPP is $34,900–43,400 international dollars (2024-2025; Trading Economics, IMF, World Economics). This is ~70% of the EU average. Gold and foreign exchange reserves — $34.6–35.8 billion USD (February 2025, CEIC Data; 84.6 billion BGN according to Trading Economics/BNB for July 2025). The stock covers 9 months of imports — one of the most stable in Eastern Europe.

Government debt — 24-25% of GDP (2025; Trading Economics, Eurostat, Cbonds). One of the lowest in the EU. Bulgaria fully provides itself with basic foodstuffs, is one of the top 5 EU grain exporters; the level of self-sufficiency is ~97-99% in basic terms, risks arise only due to drought or price shocks.

Certain categories of fruits and foodstuffs are imported. Energy dependence is high: The country imports more than 65% of its gas and oil (mainly from Russia, Azerbaijan, and Norway; the EU supports diversification). 80% of the electricity is provided by own generation (Kozloduy NPP, CHP, renewable energy sources), but the risks remain.

Bulgaria has significant reserves of coal (brown/stone), ores of non-ferrous metals (copper, lead, zinc), granite, gypsum, and mineral waters. Oil and gas exploration is limited, production is insignificant; some of the resources are exported to the EU. Security — ~99% of the population has access to high—quality drinking water; the largest water sources are the Danube, rivers, underground horizons, more than 25,000 reservoirs and springs.

Large cities have centralized supply. The entire internal payment system is serviced through the national infrastructure of Bulgarian National Bank (BNB), the BORICA system — clearing all non-cash payments, cards, banks. Within the country, the main currency is the Bulgarian lev (BGN). Within the country, 95% of all payments are in Bulgarian leva; the euro is used for large businesses and international transactions, but the BGN is still the main settlement currency for the budget, salaries and most contracts.

The issuing center is Bulgarsk Narodna Bank (BNB); conducts an independent policy, ensures the stability of BGN, the situation is controlled by the currency board (pegged to the euro, not fully autonomous). The credit policy is consistent with the European Central Bank, but the rates are set by the BNB.

Data completeness assessment: the main macroeconomic indicators are available from official sources (World Bank, IMF), coverage is 91%.

Technological sovereignty — 43.3

R&D expenditures — 0.75–0.80% of GDP (2022-2025), one of the lowest shares in the EU; business investments — 0.6% of GDP. Import substitution in high-tech has been partially implemented: the assembly industry (electronics, automotive components) is operating; many components, chips, servers and software are imported.

High-tech exports account for ~4% of GDP, with the main growth coming from foreign direct investment and foreign technology partnerships. Higher education enrollment (gross coefficient) is ~63-68%; more than 182,700 students in universities (2024/2025), 10% are foreigners. ~5% of students study in distance learning programs. Internet penetration is 86-88% of the population (2025); in large cities — 95-97%, in rural areas — 65-74%.

The country is in the top 5 of the EU in terms of availability of fiber-optic networks. National digital solutions have been developed: gov.bg, eGovernment Portal, BORICA (payment clearing), United Office for Electronic Management, a public services platform; by 2025, 42% of citizens use at least one national platform for public services or payments.

Significant dependence on imports: ~70% of chips, microchips, servers, and software are purchased from outside; the largest suppliers are China, the EU, and the United States. Several assembly plants, for example, the recently opened plant for electronic medical equipment with Czech capital.

Bulgaria implements the Digital Decade strategy: almost the entire range of basic public services is available online, including mobile identification, electronic voting, electronic medical and tax details. Biotech cluster is developing — there are local pharmaceutical companies, but key technologies and licenses are purchased from foreign partners. The sector is focused on the production of generics, equipment imports are high, and autonomy is low.

Robotics is developing at the expense of foreign investments, local IT companies specialize in industrial automation, but key components are imported. There are no own factories, production of chips and microelectronics, the country fully imports critical components; several assembly plants operate, but the R&D autonomy is extremely low.

Data completeness assessment: key indicators are obtained from WIPO, ITU, UNESCO, which ensures 97% coverage.

Information sovereignty — 51.5

A national CERT-BG was established, a participant in the ITU Global Cybersecurity Index and regular cyber studies; international CyberDrills and cyber risk conferences were held in November 2024 and September 2025. The country has a national digital security strategy and a cyber threat agency. The largest IXP is BIX.BG, >10 data centers in Sofia, 1.13 Tbps peak traffic, >120 participants (operators, providers, content).

As of 2025, the network is expanding, resilience estimate is 71%, 73% FTTH/FTTB coverage, 39%-100 Mbps broadband. The Bulgarian language is dominated by the largest TV, radio, newspapers, and Internet portals; the national language is protected by the Constitution and the Special Council on Electronic Media.

There are hundreds of licensed publications and regional media projects, Public Radio — BNR, Public TV — BNT. Bulgaria is integrated with global platforms (Google, Meta), many national digital services and state portals (gov.bg, BORICA), cloud systems — local and European. The key protection segment is government data and banks; the share of critical segments among local players is growing due to national solutions. The share of national media content (news, TV, radio) is 55-60%; foreign content is presented in films/series, but the main information and news channels are local.

It is stimulated by government support and programs for the development of Bulgarian culture. There are 2,800+ registered IT companies in the country, the largest are Telerik, Chaos Group, Sirma, BORICA, BGMenu, CloudCart, Scalefocus, Software Group. Developments — fintech, SaaS, cloud solutions, cybersecurity, industrial software; large international teams are located in Sofia and Plovdiv.

More than 88% of the population regularly uses digital services — gov.bg, banks, identification, taxes, medicine, education, electronic voting. The introduction of mobile identities and the integration of services in 2022-2025 have significantly increased coverage. The government cloud platform is GovCloud, a registry database; it is used for document management, data storage of the Ministry of Internal Affairs and tax authorities, as well as for the BORICA infrastructure.

We have our own data centers accredited according to European standards. The operators — Vivacom, A1 Bulgaria, Telenor — are national/European companies, the entire infrastructure is deployed locally; LTE/5G coverage is 97% of the territory, frequencies are controlled by the Bulgarian regulator.

The Bulgarian Law on Personal Data Protection is in force, the EU GDPR is implemented; the national regulator monitors the processing, storage and use of data, registration is mandatory, and public reporting is required.

Data completeness assessment: infrastructure indicators are available from ITU, CIRA, OECD and specialized sources, coverage is 96%.

Cultural sovereignty — 69.5

Bulgaria has 10 UNESCO sites: 7 cultural (Boyana Church, Madara Rider, Rila Monastery, Ancient City of Nessebar, Rock-Hewn Churches of Ivanovo, Thracian Tomb of Kazanlak, Thracian Tomb of Sveshtari) and 3 natural (Pirin National Park, Srebarna Nature Reserve, Ancient and Primeval Beech Forests — transnational).

In addition, 16 sites are included in the preliminary list. Bulgaria's strong contribution to world culture: the creation of the Cyrillic alphabet (10th century), Bulgarian folklore, choirs, UNESCO intangible heritage (nestinarity, martenitsa), art, architecture and religion; world opera and pop artists — Gena Dimitrova, Boris Hristov, Hristo Yavashev (Kristo), ballet, literary school. Major prizes and grants are awarded annually: the National Cultural Foundation ("13 Centuries of Bulgaria"), the award for the best cultural project, state orders and awards for merit in art, as well as international and European cultural awards.

Bulgarian identity is based on folklore, holidays (Kukeri, Martenitsa, Easter, nestinari), folk crafts, musical and dance ensembles; Orthodoxy, family and regional traditions are strong. Turkish, Armenian, Jewish, Roma, Greek, Russian, and Bulgarian ethnic groups are officially supported — schools, cultural centers, grants for ethno-cultural communities, media representation, and participation in cultural events.

There are more than 7,200 museums, galleries, monuments, churches, and architectural complexes in the country; the museum network includes 360+ museums, 265 archaeological sites, and 10,000 cultural heritage sites. Bulgaria implements dozens of international projects: UNESCO, EU, Diaspora programs, international museums, ensemble tours, joint exhibitions, "Days of Bulgaria" in the EU, Balkan and European festivals.

There is a system of registration and protection of geographical brands (Rose of Damascus, Bulgarian yogurt, wines, ceramics, folklore embroidery, intangible cultural heritage elements), support and export of original products through government programs.

The cuisine is a synthesis of Balkan, Greek, Turkish, and Slavic traditions: banitsa dishes, shop salad, tarator, yogurt, chushki, lutenitsa, boiki, meat delicacies, famous Bulgarian wines, jams, and herbal drinks. 57-61% of the population participates in culture annually: visits to museums, holidays, courses, clubs, festivals; the state supports access and expands cultural opportunities in schools and at the local level.

Data completeness assessment: basic indicators are available in UNESCO and national statistics, coverage is 92%.

Cognitive sovereignty — 58.1

Bulgaria's HDI is 0.845 (2023), ranked 55-57 in the world, "high" status; above the European average. The total level of government spending on education is 4.8% of GDP (2025, budget — BGN 10.236 billion), the average in recent years is 4.6–4.8%. Investments are growing, but the system remains underfunded by European standards.

Literacy of the population is 98.4% (2021-2023), among adults it is one of the highest in the region. PISA results (2022): mathematics — 439, reading — 432, natural sciences — 451, below the OECD average (average — 475-490). The share of STEM graduates is 36-38% (university data: engineering, IT, natural science profiles).

The share of foreign programs is 9-12%, the main ones are English-speaking, German, French, Russian courses, universal exchange and distance master's programs. Turkish, Armenian, Romani, Russian, and Greek languages are supported in the country, specialized schools, cultural centers, mass media, and integration and educational projects at the local level.

There are about 38 state and university scientific institutes in the country (fundamental science, engineering, medicine, biology). At least 80% of online courses and programs are national platforms: edunet.bg, MON portal, universit. LMS, distance learning courses at universities.

The amount of support is 800 million—1 billion BGN (2025): scholarships, grants in STEM, credit lines, innovation competitions, state funds, Olympiads, academic strategies for young scientists.

Data completeness assessment: education indicators are available in the UNDP, UNESCO, OECD, coverage is 90%.

Military sovereignty — 44.4

Defense spending is 2.0—2.18% of GDP (2025), with a target of 3.1–3.5% by 2028. The country fully complies with the NATO standard. Strength — 36,950–37,000 professional military personnel, plus ~3,000 reservists and 12,000 police/gendarmerie officers; in addition ~38,000 mobilization reserve.

Active modernization: the supply of new Stryker armored personnel carriers, the purchase of F-16 Block 70 (16 units, deliveries until 2027), the transition to cyber defense and NATO communications standards, the modernization of air defense with the integration of new complexes, fleet rearmament programs.

15-20% of weapons are produced in Bulgaria: small arms, ammunition, modernization of equipment, some components of armored personnel carriers/BRDM, radio equipment. The basis of heavy weapons and aviation is import. Full control over the borders: the army, the border guard service, national structures and EU support are working; critical sections (the border with Turkey) have been reinforced with engineering fortifications and European missions.

The mobilization reserve is up to 38,000 people; periodic exercises and trainings, the mobilization system according to Western standards, in peacetime the active reserve is up to 3,000.

The country is a member of NATO, the EU; strategic decisions are made taking into account collective defense obligations, training, standards and deployment are Western. The National Command retains its autonomy within the framework of the NATO/EU charters.

The national defense industry is well developed (Kazanlak Arsenal, VMZ Sopot, TEREM, Arcus, etc.): small arms, armored personnel carriers, components for air defense, ammunition, exports to more than 70 countries. It has no nuclear weapons. Warheads — 0. The country is a party to the NPT, all non—proliferation obligations are respected. There are no national military satellites or their own space assets; exploration is underway (Military Intelligence Service, DANS, GRAO), integration with the NATO infrastructure, and the use of alliance satellite resources. Strong emphasis on cyber intelligence and cooperation on the Black Sea.

All parameters are reflected in the annual reports of SIPRI, UNODA, the Ministry of Defense, the official portals of state—owned companies (Embraer, IMBEL) and the UN/NGO industry databases - 83% coverage

Final Summary Table

The main conclusions

Strengths. Macroeconomic stability: One of the lowest levels of public debt in the EU (24-25% of GDP), stable gold and foreign exchange reserves (> $34 billion), its own national currency and payment system. Full integration into the EU and NATO: Access to European markets, security, technologies and institutions within the framework of alliances.

Potential of export and food markets: Bulgaria is a major grain exporter, traditionally a strong agricultural sector, and highly food independent. Cultural and historical sustainability: 10 UNESCO sites, contributions to world culture (Cyrillic alphabet, folklore, music, opera artists), extensive government support for traditions and small nations.

High coverage of digital and banking services: 88% Internet penetration, developed proprietary IT platforms, digitalization of public services, large national IT companies. Stable level of security and control: Low crime, full control over borders, a well-developed system of mobilization and operational reserve.

Modernization of the army and the existing defense sector: Active investments in re-equipment, local production of small arms, armored personnel carriers and ammunition. High level of basic literacy and education: HDI — 0.845, adult population — 98.4% literate, decent STEM coverage.

Weaknesses. Protracted internal political crisis: Low support and trust in the authorities (<12%), high turbulence of the parliamentary system, frequent elections, difficulties in forming stable coalitions.

Weak level of governance and state efficiency: WGI Government Effectiveness — ~0.52, problems with corruption, lag in the implementation of reforms. Import dependence in critical areas: High energy dependence, lack of own gas/oil production, strong import dependence on high-tech components, chips, hardware, and biotechnologies. Lagging behind in innovation and R&D: Research and development expenditures — 0.75–0.8% of GDP, lower than most EU countries, insufficient autonomy in microelectronics and robotics.

Low welfare indicators: Average salaries and minimum income are lower than most European neighbors; despite stability, the standard of living is inferior to the leading EU countries. Partial autonomy of defense: Large supplies of weapons, equipment and airline components are imported, heavy weapons are made abroad, and strong integration with NATO on strategic and operational solutions.

There is no space or nuclear component: there are no military satellites or nuclear weapons; the country is completely non-nuclear, and intelligence is integrated with alliances. Demographic and social challenges: Emigration, aging, lack of young professionals in a number of industries, lagging in PISA rankings, although education is available.

Overall assessment. The cumulative Bulgarian sovereignty Index is 374.6 out of 700 possible points (average 53.5%), which places the country in the top 150 in the world. Bulgaria is a typical example of a stable European state with high macroeconomic stability, developed culture and digital infrastructure.

The country benefits from low public debt, export potential, protection of cultural brands and global integration, but faces internal political instability, import dependence in a number of strategic (energy, technology, weapons) areas, low rates of scientific and innovative developments, and partial dependence of military solutions on NATO/EU.

The growth of internal autonomy requires reforms and an accelerated innovation agenda. The sovereignty profile indicates that Bulgaria is an integrated European state with a strong macroeconomic base, developed infrastructure and cultural identity, but limited autonomy in the fields of high technology, energy and defense.

Joining the eurozone in 2026 will strengthen economic integration, which will both strengthen and limit domestic sovereignty. The main challenges are overcoming political instability, accelerating the innovation sector, and increasing strategic autonomy in energy, technology, and security.