Introduction

This report provides a comprehensive analysis of Brazil's sovereignty using the methodology of the Burke Institute. Sovereignty is assessed in 7 areas: political, economic, technological, informational, cultural, cognitive and military. Each aspect is assessed on the basis of official data from international and national sources (UN, World Bank, UNESCO, IMF, ITU, FAO, SIPRI, PISA, etc.) without using politicized indexes.

The maximum score in each direction is 100; the sum (up to 700) is the accumulated Sovereignty Index (Burke Index). To adapt and adjust statistical parameters, an international expert survey was conducted for each of the seven components using a single questionnaire of 10 questions with a 10-point scale and one open-ended question.

In total, at least 100 experts from 50+ countries were interviewed for each indicator, taking into account geographical representation and specialization. When calculating and analyzing the data, equalizing coefficients were used, bringing all data to a scale of 0-10 points.

The final index value is the arithmetic mean between statistical data and expert estimates. Below is an analysis in each area, a summary table and the main conclusions about the peculiarities of Brazilian sovereignty.

Political sovereignty — 66.2

There are no foreign military bases in Brazil, as the country is known for its policy of rejecting military bases from other countries. Brazil is not under the sanctions of other States or international organizations by upholding international law.

Here, the country agrees to comply with a number of international obligations — participation in UN peacekeeping missions, compliance with WTO trade standards, sanitary and environmental agreements.

The decisions of the United Nations and the WTO have no direct effect without national implementation, except in cases where the country voluntarily accepts jurisdiction.

Also, all international human rights treaties ratified in a special manner (by two rounds of voting in Congress with two thirds of the votes) receive a status equivalent to constitutional amendments — but still not above the Constitution itself, but on the same level with it. Ordinary international treaties are located between the Constitution and federal laws (supra-legal), if recognized by the Supreme Court as such, otherwise they have the force of ordinary federal law.

Brazil's domestic political stability index according to World Bank Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI) for 2023 is -0.41 points on a scale from -2.5 (worst value) to +2.5 (best value), which is slightly lower than the corresponding indicator for 2022 (-0.4).

This indicates a sense of moderate political instability compared to many developing countries: the global average is about -0.06. In percentile terms, Brazil ranks 28.44% among all countries (i.e., it is below the global average), and the upper limit of the 90% confidence interval is 43.13%.

In recent years, the index for Brazil has remained persistently negative and below the historical average for the country (-0.23 for 1996-2023), the minimum was observed in 2019 (-0.71), the maximum in 2002 (0.33).

According to the World Bank Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI), the value of the Government Effectiveness index for Brazil in the year 2023 is -0.55 on a scale from -2.5 to +2.5. In the global ranking, this corresponds to the 32.08 percentile — that is, the country is approximately in the third ten from the end of the overall list.

In 2024, the Brazilian e-government Development Index (EGDI, United Nations E-Government Development Index) was 0.8403, which corresponds to the 50th place in the world and the "Very High EGDI" category. Brazil is an active participant in the UN, WTO, WHO, IAEA and many specialized agencies.

Data completeness assessment: the main indicators are available from international sources, coverage is 94%.

Economic sovereignty — 58.9

Brazil's economic sovereignty in 2025 is characterized by a combination of high independence and internal/external vulnerabilities: The country has significant potential, a developed raw material base and a variety of exports, but it is dependent on global conditions, foreign markets and global demand shocks.

The GDP per capita in Brazil by the end of 2024 is 9564.58 US dollars. The forecast for the end of 2025 is approximately 9462 US dollars, which is equivalent to about 76% of the global average in terms of purchasing power parity (PPP), this figure is 19647.91 US dollars for 2024.

As of August 2025, Brazil's sovereign gold and foreign exchange reserves amount to about 346 billion US dollars, one of the largest reserves in Latin America and the developing world. Brazil's gold reserves amount to 129.65 tons (or about 11.9 billion USD at market value as of February 2025), which is the country's historical maximum. As of June 2025, Brazil's public debt stands at 9.388 trillion reais (approximately 1.452 trillion US dollars), or 76.1% of GDP.

In the coming months, the indicator is projected to increase to 82% of GDP by the end of 2025 according to macroeconomic scenarios. Thanks to the national program "Brasil Sem Fome" (Brazil without Hunger), the number of people experiencing moderate or severe food insecurity decreased from 70.3 million in 2022 to 28.5 million in 2024; the number of people suffering from severe hunger — from 21.1 million to 7.1 million.

Gasoline self-sufficiency: After increasing the share of ethanol in gasoline to 30% from August 2025, Brazil became fully self-sufficient in gasoline for the first time in 15 years, closing the external deficit and abandoning constant imports.

Hydro and renewable energy are the dominant structure: about 83% of electricity is produced from renewable sources (hydro, wind, solar power plants, biomass), which makes the energy system one of the cleanest among the G20 countries. Oil exports: the country remains a net exporter of oil, producing ≈4.1 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (2025) and selling more than a third to the foreign market, primarily to China, Europe and the United States. Brazil in 2025 is actually an energy independent country capable of providing itself with raw materials, fuel and electricity.

Brazil has the world's largest reserves of niobium (85% of the world's resources), the third largest reserves of bauxite (aluminum), the largest deposits of iron ore, significant reserves of lithium, graphite, rare earths, copper, nickel and cobalt. In August 2025, the National Sovereignty Strategy for Mineral Resources was adopted: now the export of raw materials without in-depth processing in the country is prohibited, inventory is underway and the production of high-tech products is stimulated. Brazil owns approximately 12% of the world's freshwater reserves, most of which are concentrated in the Amazon basin. However, environmental reports record a reduction in the area of natural reservoirs due to droughts, deforestation, urbanization and groundwater pumping: over 400 thousand hectares of water surface were lost in 2023-2024 alone; over 40 years — about 2.4 million hectares. The problem requires the development of adaptive water management and strict environmental policy.

The PIX instant payment system, developed and managed by the Central Bank of Brazil, has become the national standard: more than 90% of all transactions go through the PIX network. Within the country, over 99% of payments are made in reais (BRL). For international settlements, a mechanism of multi-currency agreements with Argentina and Paraguay (SML) is being developed, which allows settlements to be made immediately in real money without a dollar, but the share of such networks does not exceed 3-4% of external transactions so far.

Dollar calculations still prevail for exports and imports. The Central Bank of Brazil (Banco Central do Brasil) fully controls the issue, currency regulation and credit policy. Since July 2025, the base SELIC rate has been fixed at 15% (the maximum since 2006), no further tightening is planned; credit policy is tight due to continued inflation above target.

The rate is expected to decrease only in 2026 due to a slowdown in inflation and a slowdown in economic activity.

Data completeness assessment: the main macroeconomic indicators are available from official sources (World Bank, IMF), coverage is 95%.

Technological sovereignty — 52.7%

Expenditures on research and development in Brazil amount to 1.32% of GDP (data for 2024). The share of local high-tech products in industrial exports is growing, but localization is only partial — our own production covers about 18-22% of domestic demand for complex electronics, IT and mechatronics.

Enrollment in higher education is 92.5% among young people aged 18-24, one of the highest rates in Latin America and the world as a whole. The share of the population with Internet access is 88.2% (about 188 million people). The main national instant payment platform is PIX (Central Bank of Brazil), >90% of adult users; there are national electronic services platforms gov.br and EducaMais for education, as well as local clouds and open data portals.

More than 70% of IT equipment, microelectronics, and complex biotechnology are of imported origin; about 89% of chips and microelectronics are supplied from the USA, China, and the EU. According to the UN EGDI index - 0.8403 (very high level), most public services are available online, including taxes, social security, passport, medicine, and business services.

Brazil is completely autonomous in the production of ethanol, biodiesel, seeds, and bio-organics; in pharma and medical engineering, localization is up to 35%, while the remaining areas depend on imports of raw materials and technologies. Only ~15% of all industrial robots with national components are produced, the rest are foreign, mainly Asian and European.

In-house developments and production are at the initial stage (2-4% of the market), mass products and complex semi- and microconductors are imported; policy programs to expand localization started in 2024.

Data completeness assessment: key indicators are obtained from WIPO, ITU, UNESCO, which provides 87% coverage.

Information sovereignty — 64.8

Brazil has a high tendency to increase its information sovereignty by developing its own information systems. The USOM National Agency (Brazilian National CERT) has been operating since 2013, a 24/7 SOC center, regular international exercises; the country ranks 18th out of 53 on the Global National Cybersecurity Index (ITU) and score 70.83 points. Brazil is the largest Internet exchange point in Latin America: 38 IXPs, the largest is PTTMetro São Paulo, international DE-CIX.

The number of autonomous systems (ASN) is 1,110; its own national data transmission network (backbone). Over 98% of radio stations, 95% of TV channels, 97% of the leading online portals are in Portuguese; official media (EBC, TV Brasil, Agência Brasil) broadcast only in Portuguese.

A tax has been introduced on digital services of foreign companies and a local compliance regime; local platforms (Mercado Livre, App PagBank, gov.br, iFood) actively compete with global IT giants, legal support for national content. In digital videos/TV — more than 60% of locally produced content; the largest TV series, film and news brands are Globo, RecordTV, SBT, Band, TV Brasil; local's share in streaming is 42-46%. PIX (banking software), gov.br (portal of public services), platforms for education, medicine, agriculture — the largest in the region and completely state or national; over 28% of the software market are local products, in e-commerce >32%. More than 95% of citizens use at least one digital service – taxes, health insurance, passport, car, mobile public services. EGDI (UN) — 0.8403, "Very high" status.

The government-owned GovCloud platform and private clouds BRLink, Mandic, Nubeliu are designed for personal and corporate data; requirements are data storage in the country, local security certification.

About 94% of users use national SIM cards (Vivo, TIM Brasil, Claro, Oi); the base networks and switches belong to local corporations; 5G is being implemented without foreign management companies, strict equipment certification. From 2020— the LGPD law (Lei Geral de Proteção de Dados), an analogue of the EU GDPR: strict control, prohibition of the transfer of sensitive data abroad, mandatory personal data officer with the state regulator ANPD.

Data completeness assessment: infrastructure indicators are available from ITU and specialized sources, coverage is 90%.

Cultural sovereignty — 88.4

Brazil is a highly cultured country with a long history and a huge number of traditions, in the development of which the state is actively involved. Brazil has 23 UNESCO World Heritage Sites: 15 cultural, 8 natural (according to the official UNESCO list for 2025). Brazil is one of the top 10 global cultural exporters: samba/bossa Nova, Capoeira, Brazilian carnival are globally recognized cultural phenomena.

Exports of audiovisual content exceed $1.1 billion per year; Brazilian TV series and films are available on 5 continents. There are dozens of national awards, among the most important are Prêmio Cultura Viva (for contribution to heritage), Prêmio Funarte (state support for art projects), Prêmio Sesc de Literatura (literature), Prêmio Shell (theater).

The identity of the Brazilian people is based on a fusion of indigenous (Native American), African and European traditions. Capoeira, the Junin Festa, samba, the September parade, cuisine and rituals are recognized as cultural treasures of the state and UNESCO. Carnival of Rio de Janeiro is the largest cultural festival in the world.

More than 230 ethnic/Native American groups are officially recognized in the country. Government programs (Fundação Nacional do Iñndio, Fundação Palmares, the State Plan for the Preservation of the Heritage of Small Nations) finance schools, cultural centers, festivals, and publishing projects in minority languages.

Over 16,500 cultural sites of federal, regional, and municipal significance (museums, theaters, architectural monuments, ethnic centers, archives, and libraries) have been officially registered. Brazil is a participant in the International Biennale of Contemporary Art (Sao Paulo), the Ibero—American Theatre Festival, and major collaborations with Portugal, France, the United States, and African countries; an exporter of cultural brands and winner of the UNESCO arts inclusion grant. Patents for the brands Brazilian Samba, Capoeira, and Festa Junina are officially protected at the national level; there is a national registry of Intangible heritage (IPHAN) integrated into the WIPO system.

Brazilian cuisine is among the top 5 most diverse in the world, including 26 regional destinations; dishes such as feijoada, mozzeca, pao de cayjo, assai are recognized as cultural treasures, and Brazilian coffee shops and churrascaria are spread in dozens of countries. More than 52% of the adult population attends cultural or mass events annually (according to IBGE), and 21% regularly participates in cultural clubs, clubs, and online courses on art and music.

Data completeness assessment: basic indicators are available in UNESCO and national statistics, coverage is 80%.

Military sovereignty — 59.8

Brazil's armed forces are the largest in Latin America and the Southern Hemisphere, and are among the world's top 11 in terms of military power (Global Firepower Index, 2025). The defense budget is 1.15% of GDP, and in 2025, about $26.4 billion (consolidated spending on the army, navy, and Air Force, according to SIPRI/Ministry of Defense).

The total number of the armed forces is 334,500 people: army — 220,000, navy — 79,000, Air Force — 35,000; additional 1.6 million in the military reserve (official statistics of the Ministry of Defense).

The main weapons are modern (after 2000): Guarani's own armored vehicles, Tamandaré-class corvettes, Gripen E fighters, Caçador drones, air defense systems and SGDC satellite reconnaissance are being introduced. Localization of weapons: up to 70% of national—made weapons (Emerbraer Defense, Avibras, IMBEL), including air defense, infantry fighting vehicles, and some drones; heavy weapons, electronics, and the Air Force are imported and/or upgraded based on imports.

The SISFRON state program covers over 65% of land borders with electronic monitoring (radars, sensors, aircraft, drones); a mixed patrol regime operates on 9777 km of the border — the army, navy, and border police. The mobilization reserve has up to 1.6 million people (former conscripts and acrobats), the main exercises are conducted annually; a high level of training for officers and non-commissioned personnel.

Brazil is not part of any military-political bloc, has no foreign military bases; decisions on the use of the army are exclusively a national prerogative, international missions are only under the UN mandate and their own consent. One of the largest in the Southern Hemisphere: aircraft (KC-390), Guarani armored vehicles, missiles and artillery (AV-TM 300), UAVs and ships are produced. Embraer, Taurus, Avibras, and IMBEL companies export products to more than 40 countries.

Brazil does not have nuclear weapons — the country signed the Non-Proliferation Treaty, the Treaty on the Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zone (Tlatelolco), participated in the closure of the militarized nuclear program back in the 1990s. There are no warheads or military supplies. Brazil is developing its own orbital constellation for the introduction of reconnaissance — the SGDC-1/2 observation satellites, the Brazilian-Chinese CBERS (intelligent survey), the launch of rockets from the Alcantara Center is being developed.

The national intelligence services (ABIN, Estratégia Nacional de Inteligência) control all space and electronic channels, including satellite communications. All parameters are transparently reflected in the annual reports of SIPRI, UNODA, the Brazilian Ministry of Defense, the official portals of state—owned companies (Embraer, IMBEL) and industry databases of UN/NGO - 96% coverage.

Final Summary Table

The main conclusions

Strengths. The tenth economy in the world, the largest in Latin America. High level of food security, significant Agro—export indicators - Brazil feeds about 11% of the world's population. Large gold and foreign exchange reserves: $346-355 billion. Full sovereignty of the national payment and financial system (real, PIX).

High enrollment in higher education is more than 90% of young people, and literacy is 94.8% of adults. The rapidly growing sector of digital public services and national platforms (PIX, Gov.br), high EGDI — 0.84 ("very high level").

The number of the army is more than 330 thousand. a man, a powerful reserve, an autonomous military policy. Independent defense industry (up to 70% of weapons are of national production).

Weaknesses. High government debt — up to 76-82% of GDP, fiscal imbalances, difficulties with inflation and interest rates. High-tech import dependence: 70-89% of microelectronics, biotechnologies and IT equipment are imported. Low autonomy in chips, software and robotics: own production does not exceed 15-20% Regional inequality and insufficient infrastructure in rural and remote areas, gap in access to the Internet / technology.

PISA scores are significantly lower than the OECD average, and the quality of education and research is inferior to the leading countries. The share of STEM graduates (17.7%) is lower than the global average. There are no nuclear weapons, dependence on external supplies of components, and the absence of advanced technologies in the Air Force/air defense.

Limited military space capabilities and the fulfillment of major strategic tasks outside the region. Imports of foreign cultural products and software still exceed exports in a number of areas, despite the growth of national content. Insufficient protection of smaller language groups and less developed regions in the media sphere and the state communications.

Overall assessment: Brazil's cumulative sovereignty index is 453.7 out of 700 possible points (above the average of 64.8%), which places the country in the top 100 in the global top. The data show that Brazil is a country with the strongest resources, high levels of food and energy independence, modern military and cultural infrastructure, but with significant technological, social and financial challenges that require further diversification, modernization and increased inclusivity.

The sovereignty profile indicates that sovereignty is based on the scale of resources, an independent financial and payment architecture, internal rule of law, a powerful culture, and an independent foreign policy, but requires further efforts to remove technological, scientific, structural, and infrastructural constraints in order to become a full-fledged global force.