Introduction

This report presents a comprehensive analysis of Azerbaijan's sovereignty using the methodology of the Burke Institute. Sovereignty is assessed in 7 areas: political, economic, technological, informational, cultural, cognitive and military. Each aspect is assessed on the basis of official data from international and national sources (UN, World Bank, UNESCO, IMF, ITU, FAO, SIPRI, PISA, etc.) without using politicized indexes.

The maximum score in each direction is 100; the sum (up to 700) is the accumulated Sovereignty Index (Burke Index). To adapt and adjust statistical parameters, an international expert survey was conducted for each of the seven components using a single questionnaire of 10 questions with a 10-point scale and one open-ended question.

In total, at least 100 experts from 50+ countries were interviewed for each indicator, taking into account geographical representation and specialization. When calculating and analyzing the data, equalizing coefficients were used, bringing all data to a scale of 0-10 points.

The final index value is the arithmetic mean between statistical data and expert estimates.

Below is an analysis in each area, a summary table and the main conclusions about the peculiarities of Azerbaijani sovereignty.

Political sovereignty — 55.6

There are no foreign military bases in Azerbaijan. The appearance of a Turkish base is being discussed at the expert level, but legally the presence of foreign troops is prohibited except in "exceptional cases" according to the terms of the alliance with Turkey (the Shusha Declaration). So far, no such cases have been officially recorded.

The national legislation is based on the Constitution of 1995 and has the highest legal force. International agreements (UN, CIS, ECHR, investment treaties) are implemented through implementation, while in some cases PSAs (oil agreements) take precedence over domestic laws (except the Constitution and international agreements).

The government tightly controls the internal political situation: protests, the opposition and civil society are under pressure, 2024-2025 are characterized by externally high stability from the point of view of the regime, but with increasing public discontent, arrests of journalists and activists.

The management Efficiency Index (WGI, World Bank) is about -0.11 (below the global average), there is bureaucratization, disorganization and strong centralization of power. Azerbaijan ranks 49th in the world (UN EGDI 2024, score 0.742), key public services are available through the portal e-Gov.az: taxes, registration, payments, medicine, identification.

According to closed opinion polls from 2024-2025, confidence in Ilham Aliyev is consistently high in official sources (more than 75%), however, independent assessments and information about discontent, arrests and emigration of the opposition indicate increasing authoritarian control. Active participation in the UN, CIS, Council of Europe, Non-Aligned Movement, OIC, Energy Charter, ICSID, BITs (50+).

Integration of EU and Turkish standards, participation in a number of international military, energy and arbitration agreements. Azerbaijan participates in the ECHR, ICSID, and the New York Arbitration Convention. However, arbitration and international proceedings are rarely used, and some decisions of the EU and ECHR courts are not enforced or challenged in national courts. The country remains a tightly centralized presidential republic, with the main decisions concentrated in the hands of the president, and local governments are largely the administrative executors of the central government.

The special services (the State Security Service, the Ministry of Internal Affairs) are formally subordinate to the president and parliament, and operate in high-security mode; real civilian control and parliamentary accountability are minimal.

Data completeness assessment: the main indicators are available from international sources, the coverage is 95%.

Economic sovereignty — 64.4

GDP per capita (PPP) according to various sources is 22,600- 25,100 USD (World Bank/IMF/Trading Economics). As of September 2025, the country's gold reserves amount to $11.25 billion (the average for 2025 is $11.0—11.9 billion). Government debt to GDP: 20.4–22.2% (external — 6.6%, internal — 13.8%), by the end of 2025 — about $17 billion.

About 60% of products (in terms of calories) are produced in the country, a significant part of the relevant product categories (cereals, sugar, meat, vegetables, fish) are imported; in dry years, there are problems with yields and dependence on imports.

Azerbaijan is an exporter of oil and gas, ensures the country's energy independence and a steady surplus of foreign trade in energy resources. Large oil and gas reserves (basins, deposits of the Caspian Sea), advanced petrochemistry and gas industry, copper, gold, manganese and other minerals, as well as mineral waters.

The country depends on the flow of the Caucasian rivers (Kura, Araz), there are large reservoirs and lakes, but the risks of freshwater scarcity are high in dry years, and land reclamation and water conservation programs are regularly implemented. The national payment system AzerCard, national processing of the largest banks and integration with VISA, Mastercard are functioning.

Most of the domestic transactions are conducted in manats (AZN), but the dollar and euro are widely used in exports and large businesses, especially in oil and gas contracts. The Central Bank of Azerbaijan (CBA) carries out the issue, currency control, regulates the discount rate (in 2025-7%), is an independent issuing and monetary center of the country.

Data completeness assessment: the main macroeconomic indicators are available from official sources (World Bank, IMF), coverage is 91%.

Technological sovereignty — 48.9

Research expenditures in 2023-2025 amount to 0.18% of GDP (World Bank, CEIC), which is significantly lower than the global average. Import substitution is extremely low: almost all chips, complex industrial equipment, software and electronics are imported, domestic development is limited to several university and application centers, and the share of national hi-tech exports ~1.2%.

Coverage of higher education (gross tertiary enrollment) — 41.4% according to the World Bank; alternative expert assessments — up to 80% (including colleges and colleges). 88-89% of the population use the Internet (Statista, DataReportal); 9.23 million users at the beginning of 2025.

Key government platform — e-Gov.az Numerous payment, tax, medical, educational, and ID services are under the control of the CBA and the Ministry of Finance, as well as ASAN Service, MilliKart, and AzerCard applications. Critical import dependence — software, chips, servers, and equipment are almost entirely of foreign origin; local solutions are highly specialized and small—scale. EGDI is ranked 49th in the world (0.742 points); >75% of key government services are available online through e-Gov, ASAN, tax and registration portals.

Basic laboratories, the production of individual medicines (the main one is import), several medical and biotechnological centers are developing, but the leading technologies and equipment are foreign. The sector is in its infancy: individual university laboratories and projects in industrial automation, activity does not go beyond imported components.

There is no in-house production - all integrated circuits and components are purchased abroad; internal integration is limited to assembly and maintenance.

Data completeness assessment: key indicators are obtained from WIPO, ITU, UNESCO, which ensures 92% coverage.

Information sovereignty — 56

The National Electronic Security Service (CERT) operates in Azerbaijan, actively participates in the ITU Global CyberDrill exercises (2025, 5th place among the national teams), regularly updates the regulatory framework and implements ITU standards.

The main operator is Delta Telecom (IXP, Baku), integration with regional highways, by 2025 new exchange points will be formed under the Digital Silk Way and Azerbaijan Digital Hub program.

The share of local hosting and caching is about 38%, and it is planned to create new neutral IXPs. There are 47 TV channels in the country, >3,500 media outlets, and 25 radio stations - most broadcast in Azerbaijani, the share of Russian, English, Turkish, and other languages is less than 10%; the policy of protecting and promoting linguistic identity is maintained at the constitutional level.

Dependence is high: all major global platforms (Meta, Google, YouTube, Telegram) are massively used; part of the infrastructure and CDN nodes are from local data centers, but full autonomy has not been achieved, government applications and local services are being implemented. More than 70% of the central media (TV, radio, newspapers) are nationally produced and edited, the share of online production is growing; the costs of independence and state control remain.

The national IT market includes payment systems AzerCard, MilliKart, electronic public services (myGov, ASAN Service), BakuBus, medical and educational services platforms; private IT companies produce local software for banks and service platforms, but the massive high-tech is imported. Coverage of >75% of citizens: public services are available through unified portals e-Gov, myGov, tax and medical platforms, the coverage of mobile banking and Internet services is one of the highest in the region.

Government data centers (AzInTelecom) and Baku Data Center are operating, large banks use local cloud solutions, and part of the infrastructure is integrated with international suppliers. All operators are licensed by the Communications Agency; the infrastructure is controlled by the National As a regulator, the large BakuTel and Azercell companies are local or state—owned; the equipment is mainly imported, and the service management is national.

The Law "On Personal Data" (ed. 2023) is in force, established by the National The regulator is an agency under the Ministry of Digital Development and Transport; registration and protection procedures have been implemented, based on European standards, and strengthened in cooperation with ITU.

Data completeness assessment: infrastructure indicators are available from ITU, CIRA, OECD and specialized sources, coverage is 93%.

Cultural sovereignty — 79.1

There are 5 UNESCO World Heritage Sites in Azerbaijan:

• Baku City Fortress with Shirvanshahs' Palace and Maiden Tower

• Gobustan Rock art Complex

• Sheki Center with Khan's Palace

• The cultural landscape of the Khinalyg people and the transhumance route "Köç Yolu" (2023)

• Natural — Hyrkan forests (from 2019/2023).

Azerbaijan is recognized for its traditional Mugham music (on the UNESCO Intangible Heritage List), carpet, folk dances, cuisine, tolerance and secularity (Muslims, Christians, Jews), art school, rich craft, literature, festivals, powerful traditions of hospitality, vibrant cultural brands.

National prizes are awarded — the Presidential Prize, the prizes of the Union of Artists and Writers, annual youth grants (in 2025— victories in the TURKSOY, Young Artists of the Turkish World competition were awarded), regional chapters are awarded for their contributions to culture, music, dance and fine arts.

The center features the Azerbaijani (Turkic) identity, Islam (predominantly Shiites), a rich ethnic palette, a vibrant tradition of family and social relations, strict politeness, national dress, music, dancing, jewelry - all accompanied by high cultural stability.

The state supports the autonomy of languages and cultures of small nations: Talysh, Lezgins, Avars, Russians, Jews; cultural and educational projects, media, schools, museum initiatives are funded. Hundreds of museums and monuments are officially protected, tens of thousands of objects are included in the state register, including complexes in Baku, Gobustan, Sheki, the National Carpet Museum, historical mosques and fortresses.

Azerbaijan is an active participant in the programs of UNESCO, TURKSOY, OIC, Eco, EU Creative, organizes and hosts international festivals, biennales, competitions for young artists, carpet distilleries, gastronomic shows and art exhibitions. National brands: mugham (UNESCO), Azerbaijani carpet, Baku glass, Armenian wine, eggplant pilaf, dolma, Baku tea, nut sweets, satin, copper and fabrics — all this is protected by patents, state programs, international guidelines.

The cuisine is one of the most diverse and recognizable (dolma, pilaf, kebab, kutab, dyushbara, sweets, nuts, grilled dishes, pastries, green tea); the influence of Persia, Turkey, the Caucasus and Central Asia. 60% of the population attends or participates in cultural events (festivals, museums, concerts, workshops, gastronomic festivals, religious ceremonies and mass celebrations).

Data completeness assessment: basic indicators are available in UNESCO and national statistics, coverage is 92%.

Cognitive sovereignty — 62.7

HDI of Azerbaijan — 0.789 (2025); the country is included in the "high level" category, 81st place in the world. Government spending on education accounts for 3.58% of GDP (2023, World Bank), which has been gradually increasing in recent years. Adult literacy — 99.8–100% (2023, Macrotrends/Statista). PISA-2022 scores: mathematics — 401, reading — 432, natural sciences — 404 points. The indicators are below the OECD average, but above the regional neighbors (Georgia, Armenia).

The share of STEM graduates among university students is 27-30%; consistently high in engineering, exact sciences and natural sciences. 7-9% of students participate in international educational programs: Erasmus+, Turkiye Scholarship, exchanges with Russia, China, university visits. The languages and traditions of Lezgins, Russians, Talysh, Jews, Avars, Kurds, Georgians, Ukrainians, etc. are supported in the country; there is a state program to support national minorities, there are schools, mass media, cultural centers in their native languages.

There are 11 state research institutes for fundamental sciences (academies and specialized institutes), 24 laboratories and a number of university research institutes. National platforms and government remote solutions are well—known and cover more than 60% of universities and colleges, schools - less than 35% (the main share is among international software and foreign LMS).

At least 10 major government programs are being implemented: the Presidential Youth Program, grants from the National Fund, state scholarships, scientific competitions, paid STEM courses, youth Olympiads, micro grants for young scientists, exchanges and visits under government orders.

Data completeness assessment: education indicators are available in the UNDP, UNESCO, OECD, coverage is 91%.

Military sovereignty — 53.4

In 2024-2025, the military budget amounts to 4.6–5.2% of GDP; total defense spending is $3.77—4.47 billion (one of the highest levels in the world in terms of budget share). Main staff: 126,400 active troops, reservists — up to 300,000, in parallel ~ 15,000 people in other law enforcement agencies (National Guard, Interior Ministry, border troops).

A large-scale modernization program: updated missile defense systems, UAVs (Turkish, Azerbaijani, Israeli), the latest armored vehicles, upgraded T-72 Aslan and SU-25 tanks, modern control systems, new attack drones and precision artillery are in service. The main weapons are imported (Turkey, Israel, Russia), but the share of local production is increasing: modernization of armored vehicles (Sumgait Technologies Park), drone assembly, ammunition and service; part of the modernization is carried out with the help of foreign corporations.

All land, sea and air borders are fully under the control of the armed forces, the State Border Service, the Interior Ministry and the National Guard — technically upgraded, new electronic and armored security systems are being introduced.

The reserve potential is up to 300,000 people, and rotation and partial exercises of the mobilization corps are conducted annually. The country is not a member of any military alliances (CSTO, NATO), but cooperates with Turkey (Shusha Declaration), Israel (procurement and exchanges), participates in separate NATO training programs (Partnership for Peace), and retains military autonomy in all strategic matters.

Our own industry is developing: ammunition production, repair and upgrade of armored vehicles, local assembly of UAVs, creation of air defense elements; key technologies and know-how from Turkey and Israel, national service. Azerbaijan does not have nuclear weapons and does not develop such projects, and is a party to the NPT.

The national space program is implemented with the help of Azersky and Azerspace satellites; exploration is comprehensive, with an emphasis on UAVs, EVR, space photography, integration with Turkish and Israeli systems, cyber intelligence and electronic intelligence are developing. All parameters are reflected in the annual reports of SIPRI, UNODA, the Ministry of Defense, the official portals of state—owned companies (Embraer, IMBEL) and industry databases of UN/NGO - 90% coverage.

Final Summary Table

The main conclusions

The strengths are macroeconomic stability and energy independence: Low government debt (about 20% of GDP), high gold and foreign exchange reserves ($11.25 billion), trade surplus due to its own exports of oil, gas and petrochemicals, independent monetary policy.

State and cultural sovereignty: Clear centralization of decisions in the system of the presidential republic, absence of foreign bases and alliances, serious support for national identity, a wide range of cultural brands and intangible heritage (5 UNESCO sites, mugham, carpet).

Digitalization and digital services coverage: 88-89% of Internet penetration, developed national platforms (e-Gov, ASAN, MilliKart, AzerCard), >75% of residents use public services online, their own data centers and payment systems are rapidly developing.

Strong defense and modernization of the army: Up to 5.2% of GDP — military expenditures, army strength over 120,000, reserve up to 300,000, introduction of modern weapons (UAVs, air defense, armored vehicles), local production of ammunition and components, high level of border control.

Literacy and ethnocultural diversity: 99.8% literacy rate, support for cultures of small nations, a wide range of ethnic languages, festivals and museums.

Weaknesses. Import dependence in high-tech: Critical dependence in microelectronics, chips, robotics, biotechnologies, 95% of key equipment and solutions are imported; R&D is only 0.18% of GDP, high-tech exports are minimal.

Average or low results in education and innovation: HDI — 0.789 (81st place), PISA index below the OECD, limited coverage by national educational and research platforms, a small number of state research institutes. Political risks and lack of transparency: High centralization and control of power, the opposition and independent media under pressure, formal supervision of special services, weak independent control, non-compliance with a number of decisions of international courts.

Water and agricultural vulnerabilities: Water is available through external runoff, there is a risk of shortage in droughts, only about 60% of food is produced in the country, the rest is imported. Weak import substitution in IT and software: Minimal number of local competitive solutions; own ecosystem is just being formed.

Dependence on foreign policy conjunctures: Strict non-entry into alliances, significant influence of Turkey and Israel on the development of the military-industrial complex and armaments.

Overall assessment. The cumulative sovereignty index of Azerbaijan is 420.1 out of 700 possible points (above the average of 60%), which places the country in the top 100 in the world. Azerbaijan is an example of raw material sovereignty with a rigid state vertical and a powerful defense modernization cycle, while experiencing structural dependence on external resources and technologies, limited innovation economy, average humanitarian and educational indicators and unstable long—term agro-water security.

Sovereignty is based on internal control, energy exports and a balance of non-aligned policies, but further growth requires reliance on innovation, modernization of institutions and infrastructure.

The sovereignty profile indicates that Azerbaijan's sovereignty in 2025 is characterized by full territorial and legal implementation, powerful centralized government, high economic and energy opportunities, and significant humanitarian capital.

The limitations are technological import dependence, underdevelopment of the innovation economy and control institutions, as well as external challenges related to the balance of interests in the South Caucasus.