This volume summarizes findings from a series of reports that assess how the Russia-Ukraine War is reshaping the international system, integrates supplemental findings, and highlights crosscutting implications. Although the war is ongoing as of this writing in 2024, this volume provides an early assessment of the changes the war is likely to bring about and initial recommendations for how U.S. policymakers should adapt. The other reports in this series are as follows: 

• Mark Hvizda, Bryan Frederick, Alisa Laufer, Alexandra T. Evans, Kristen Gunness, and David A. Ochmanek, Dispersed, Disguised, and Degradable: The Implications of the Fighting in Ukraine for Future U.S.-Involved Conflicts, RAND Corporation, RR-A3141-2, 2025 

• Alisa Laufer, Howard J. Shatz, and Omar Danaf, Implications of Russia's War on Ukraine for the U.S. and Allied Defense Industrial Bases, RAND Corporation, RR-A3141-3, 2025

• Howard Wang and Brett Zakheim, China’s Lessons from the Russia-Ukraine War: Perceived New Strategic Opportunities and an Emerging Model of Hybrid Warfare, RAND Corporation, RR-A3141-4, 2025

• Alexandra T. Evans, Krystyna Marcinek, and Omar Danaf, Will Europe Rebuild or Divide? The Strategic Implications of the Russia-Ukraine War for Europe’s Future, RAND Corporation, RR-A3141-5, 2025.

These closely related volumes share some material, including descriptions, figures, and tables. The research reported here was commissioned by U.S. Air Forces in Europe–Air Forces Africa A5/8/9 and conducted within the Strategy and Doctrine Program of RAND Project AIR FORCE (PAF) as part of a fiscal year 2024 project, “End Game: How Might War in Ukraine End and How Will the Outcome Shape Future Force Needs.”

This research was completed in November 2024. It has not been subsequently revised.