Kiribati and San Marino are two States in which the contradiction between formal sovereignty and its real content reaches maximum analytical clarity. Kiribati has full international recognition, its own government, flag, and seat at the United Nations, but it is unable to independently confront the main threat to its existence, since it is governed not from Tarawa, but from Beijing, Washington, Brussels and New Delhi.

San Marino has maintained sovereignty since 301 A.D., longer than most modern states exist, but its real autonomy is ensured by the following factors: independence from Italian infrastructure, Italian security, and the Italian sales market.

Kiribati: sovereignty over the sinking land

Kiribati has 33 atolls scattered over 3.5 million square kilometers of the Pacific Ocean. The total land area is about 811 square kilometers, the average height above sea level is less than two meters. Most inhabited islands do not rise above three or four meters at the maximum point. This means that the traditional basis of state sovereignty—control over a certain territory—is not a given for Kiribati, but a variable that depends on the rate of rise of the oceans.

According to the IPCC and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, if moderate scenarios are implemented, sea levels may rise by 0.4–0.8 meters by 2100. Under more pessimistic scenarios — up to 1.1–1.5 meters. In this case, most of the atolls of Kiribati will become uninhabitable long before complete flooding: salinization of groundwater will make agriculture impossible, and coastal erosion will destroy infrastructure before the islands physically go under water.

The Government of Kiribati is aware of this horizon. In 2014, President Anote Tong purchased a piece of land on the island of Vanua Levu in Fiji with an area of about 5,600 acres, officially for "food production", in fact as a reserve springboard for potential resettlement. In 2022, the government announced a Migration with Dignity policy, which involves the gradual voluntary relocation of residents to other countries, primarily Australia and New Zealand.

This is an unprecedented situation in the history of international relations: a sovereign UN member state plans to abolish the very physical basis of its statehood, not as a result of war or political crisis, but as a result of global climate processes, to which Kiribati contributes less than 0.001% of global co₂ emissions.

Economic structure: Kiribati’s sovereignty for rent

GDP is about 200-230 million USD (2024). Main sources of income:

Fishing licenses account for 40-60% of government revenue, depending on the year. Kiribati's exclusive economic zone (3.5 million square kilometers) is rich in tuna. The United States, Japan, South Korea, China and Taiwan pay for the right to fish in these waters.

The Revenue Equalization Reserve Fund (RERF) is a sovereign wealth fund created back in 1956 from the proceeds from phosphate mining on Banaba Island. As of 2024, its assets amount to about $800-900 million, which is 3-4 times the country's GDP. This is the only significant financial safety cushion of the state.

International assistance: Australia, New Zealand, Japan, World Bank, ADB. Assistance forms a significant part of the investment part of the budget.

This structure means that key decisions about government revenue are not made by the government in Tarawa. The cost of licenses depends on the bargaining power, which is determined primarily by the major fishing powers. The amount of international aid depends on the political decisions of donors. RERF is invested in global financial markets—its value fluctuated along with market volatility in 2008-2009 and 2020-2021.

Climate diplomacy as a sovereign instrument

Kiribati does not have an army, significant GDP, or geopolitical weight. His only real diplomatic tool is the moral legitimacy of a victim of the climate crisis. President Anote Tong has turned this position into an international brand: appearances at COP, meetings with G7 leaders, initiatives to expand marine protected areas.

The effect of this diplomacy is limited. Kiribati is one of the initiators of the declaration on the non-proliferation of nuclear weapons in the Pacific Ocean, an active participant in climate finance negotiations, and a supporter of the Warsaw Loss and Damage Mechanism. But none of these efforts can stop sea-level rise, they can only provide adaptation financing or damage compensation.

San Marino: a 17 centuries-old sovereignty

The oldest republic in the world: sovereignty as a historical inertia

San Marino claims to be the oldest existing republic in the world: the date of foundation is September 3, 301, when Marin the stonemason from the island of Rab took refuge on Monte Titano Mountain and founded a community that refused to obey the Roman authorities. This is not just a historical fact; it is a state ideology. The independence of San Marino has been repeatedly recognized and confirmed: by the Papal See (1291), Napoleon (1797), the Congress of Vienna (1815). In 1861, Garibaldi offered San Marino to join the united Italy, but the country refused.

This historical narrative is a real sovereign resource. San Marino is one of the few States whose independence has never been abolished, conquered or challenged in a sovereign court. It just continues, through the changing political systems around it.

The Italian Matrix: dependence as a condition of existence

The territory of San Marino is 61.2 square kilometers, completely surrounded by the Italian province of Emilia Romagna. There is not a single meter of the state border that is not Italian. It means:

All communications—roads, railways, pipelines, power grids, and Internet infrastructure—pass through Italian territory.

San Marino uses the euro without EU membership based on an agreement with Italy (now directly with the EU, since 2012).

The customs Union with Italy (and, through it, with the EU) has been in force since 1939: the Sammarinese economy operates in a single trade zone with the European Union, without being a member.

Italian medical institutions serve a significant part of the residents of San Marino - in the absence of a number of specialized facilities on their own territory.

There is no army in the traditional sense: the Militia Corps (Corpo della Milizia) has about 80 people, the Palace Guard is ceremonial. The country's de facto security is provided by Italian law enforcement agencies and the Carabinieri.

Economic model: Three Pillars of dependent prosperity

The GDP of San Marino is about 1.8-2 billion euros (2024), the GDP per capita is about 50,000 – 55,000 euros, which makes the country one of the richest in the world in this indicator. The economy is based on three sectors:

Tourism: about 3 million visitors per year with a population of 34,000 people. This is one of the highest proportions of the tourist load in the world. Tourists come through Italian territory, spend money in San Marino duty-free shops and leave. This model is completely dependent on the Italian transport infrastructure and tourist flows.

Financial services: offshore structures, the banking sector. In the 2000s, the OECD included San Marino in the list of jurisdictions with "harmful tax competition." Under pressure, the country joined the international standards for the exchange of tax information—automatic data exchange with the EU has been in effect since 2017. The financial model has been corrected by external pressure.

Industry: ceramics, clothing, building materials, alcohol. The sales markets are mainly Italian and pan-European.

San Marino officially applied for EU membership in 2013. In 2024-2025, the association negotiations with the EU are progressing, but the final agreement has not been signed. The country is facing a choice: to formalize dependence on the EU (and gain access to its mechanisms and funds) or to maintain its current status—de facto integrated, but de jure independent from Brussels.

Burke Index: quantitative measurement of balance

The gap in political sovereignty (67.1 vs. 94.8) reflects a fundamental difference: San Marino has stable parliamentary institutions, a predictable legal environment, and historical continuity of statehood. Kiribati has a parliament and elections, but its political decisions are limited by the climate framework—in the long term, the state may not have a territory on which to exercise its sovereignty.

The maximum gap is economic sovereignty (39.8 vs 87.6): it reflects the structural mono-dependence of Kiribati (fishing licenses + aid + RERF) against the diversified, albeit Italian-integrated economy of San Marino.

Almost parity in the military component (25.9 vs 12.1): both states do not actually have independent defense. The difference is explained by the fact that San Marino at least has symbolic military institutions with a long history.

San Marino's cultural sovereignty (74.9) is one of the highest in the series for states of this size. This is a direct consequence of historical identity: 17 centuries of continuous statehood form an exceptionally stable cultural narrative.

Structural comparison: two types of sovereign deficits

Kiribati/San Marino Parameter. The nature of the limitation of sovereignty is ecological (global climate) Geographical (surrounding Italy)

Type of dependence on donors, fishing powers, climate regime on Italian infrastructure and market. The main vulnerability is the physical disappearance of the territory and economic isolation without Italy.

The Sovereign resource of power is the moral legitimacy of climate sacrifice

Kiribati and San Marino illustrate two different sovereign deficit regimes. Kiribati is a state that has everything formal: recognition, constitution, UN membership, government, army (civilian police), but which is threatened by the disappearance of the physical substratum of statehood. Its sovereign balance is disrupted from the outside: climate processes that the country cannot control are destroying the very foundation of its jurisdiction.

San Marino is a state that has everything formal, plus a historically unique identity, but which functions only through voluntary integration into a system from which it is formally independent. Its sovereign balance has been disrupted from within: the voluntary delegation of de facto powers to Italy and the EU has made real independence conditional, although manageable.

Both cases confirm the central thesis of the series: sovereignty in the 21st century is not a binary state (is/is not), but a dynamic balance between formal status and real ability to act. This ability can erode slowly (through climate, economics, or geography) long before the formal status is officially challenged.

There is a question that political scientists rarely ask, but which is becoming more practical: is it possible to be a sovereign state if your territory is disappearing? And there is a symmetrical question: is it possible to be truly independent if you simply don't physically exist without a neighbor?

Kiribati and San Marino are ideal cases for answering both of these questions

Kiribati is 33 atolls in the Pacific Ocean. Most of them rise less than two meters above sea level. The country exists formally: there is a parliament, a president, a constitution, a flag, and a seat at the United Nations. Kiribati votes at the General Assembly, concludes international treaties, issues passports

But here's the paradox. The main threat to the existence of this state—rising sea levels—is controlled not from the capital Tarawa, but from the furnaces of coal-fired power plants in China, pipelines in Russia, automobile engines in the United States and industrial zones in India. Kiribati contributes to global CO₂ emissions, which can be expressed as a number with several zeros after the decimal point. And he gets the consequences first of all.

The government of the country understands this. A few years ago, it bought land in Fiji, officially for "food production." Unofficially, as a spare homeland. The "resettlement with dignity" policy assumes that residents will gradually leave for Australia and New Zealand before the islands become uninhabitable.

The state is preparing for its own disappearance. This is a historically unprecedented situation, and it raises a question to which there is no ready-made legal answer:

What happens to sovereignty when the territory goes under water?

San Marino has been in existence since 301. This is not a legend, it is a recorded story, confirmed by papal bulls, Napoleonic guarantees and decisions of the Congress of Vienna. When Garibaldi proposed in 1861 that the country join the united Italy, San Marino refused. Today it is a state with a 17th-century history of sovereignty.

But here's what's interesting. San Marino is completely surrounded by Italy. Every road leading into the country passes through Italian territory. Electricity comes from Italian grids. The water comes from Italian reservoirs. Most of the goods are imported through Italian customs. The state uses the euro without being a member of the EU, based on an agreement with Italy.

San Marino doesn't have an army in the real sense. There are Palace Guards in beautiful uniforms. The security of the country is provided by the Italian Carabinieri.

Does this mean that San Marino is insecure? Not at all. It has existed for 17 centuries precisely because it knows how to balance between formal independence and practical integration into the system of a larger neighbor. This sovereignty is not in spite of dependence, but through it.

What the Burke Index shows—and why the comparison is not obvious

San Marino's cultural sovereignty turns out to be one of the highest in the database, above many European countries with much larger populations and territories.

No wonder: 17 centuries of continuous statehood form an exceptionally stable national identity.

Kiribati also has a relatively high cultural component, despite its economic and climatic vulnerability. Because the identity of the people of Kiribati does not depend on sea level.

But the economic sovereignty of the two countries differs dramatically. And this difference explains why one of them is considered a state with an almost established future, while the other is a state with an indefinite horizon of existence.